Okay, so this year has been a massive step back in terms of Oscar coverage, but I am still here to give some final predictions before the big show. Once again I will have a Confidence Index that will tell you how sure I am about the prediction, and by extension how much you can trust it. The ratings will range from 1 to Coco–err “Shallow,”– err Parasite (well Foreign Film edition) I mean, from 1 to 10.
This has been a weird year with many of the top races seeming to be all by over, but there is still a lot up in the air as we head towards the awards so let’s get to some predictions.
Best motion picture of the year nominees:
FORD V FERRARI
Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping and James Mangold, Producers
THE IRISHMAN
Martin Scorsese, Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Producers
JOJO RABBIT
Carthew Neal, Taika Waititi and Chelsea Winstanley, Producers
JOKER
Todd Phillips, Bradley Cooper and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Producers
LITTLE WOMEN
Amy Pascal, Producer
MARRIAGE STORY
Noah Baumbach and David Heyman, Producers
1917
Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne-Ann Tenggren and Callum McDougall, Producers
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh and Quentin Tarantino, Producers
PARASITE
Kwak Sin Ae and Bong Joon Ho, Producers
Predicted Winner: Parasite
Confidence Index: 2 (I am fairly certain it will be one of two movies, and I am purposely picking the least likely one because ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)
Could Win: 1917
Dark Horse: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Because the Academy is Crazy: Joker
Should Win: Parasite
Brief Thoughts:
- Look I have a lot I could say here, but I am going to keep this simple. There are only four movies that can win here. Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, and Parasite. Joker only because I do not trust the Academy not to do something stupid. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood because well it is about Hollywood. 1917 because it has won the most precursor award. Parasite because well it is the best movie. In the end, this is between 1917 and Parasite, and well I should pick 1917, but screw it going with my heart Parasite for the win.
How I Would Have Ranked This Years Nominees if I Had a Ballot
- Parasite
- 1917
- JoJo Rabbit
- The Irishman
- Marriage Story
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Little Women
- Ford V. Ferrari
- Joker
- These are all much closer than normal as it is a really solid group (even Joker). Only a Joker win would be bad simply because it is just so problematic and so much less good a movie than people think it is.
Performance by an actor in a leading role nominees:
Antonio Banderas in PAIN AND GLORY
Leonardo DiCaprio in ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Adam Driver in MARRIAGE STORY
Joaquin Phoenix in JOKER
Jonathan Pryce in THE TWO POPES
Predicted Winner: Joaquin Phoenix
Confidence Index: 9.9
Could Win: No
Dark Horse: Adam Driver
Should Win: Antonio Banderas
Brief Thoughts:
- It is a real shame that Hollywood has decided the Joker is the only comic book character worth giving an Oscar to, and even more of a shame that Antonio Banderas has no chance of winning here. Still, Phoenix is quite good in Joker, and even if this is the wrong role to reward him, he is going to win, and he is going to give a great speech.
Performance by an actress in a leading role nominees:
Cynthia Erivo in HARRIET
Scarlett Johansson in MARRIAGE STORY
Saoirse Ronan in LITTLE WOMEN
Charlize Theron in BOMBSHELL
Renée Zellweger in JUDY
Predicted Winner: Renée Zellweger
Confidence Index: 9.9
Could Win: No
Dark Horse: Charlize Theron (why not)
Should Win: Renée Zellweger
Brief Thoughts:
- Look there has been a bit of buzz lately for Theron, but let’s just move along Zellweger has this.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role nominees:
Tom Hanks in A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
Anthony Hopkins in THE TWO POPES
Al Pacino in THE IRISHMAN
Joe Pesci in THE IRISHMAN
Brad Pitt in ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Predicted Winner: Brad Pitt
Confidence Index: 9.9
Could Win: No
Dark Horse: Umm, I guess Al Pacino
Should Win: Joe Pesci
Brief Thoughts:
- Yawn, moving along.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role nominees:
Kathy Bates in RICHARD JEWELL
Laura Dern in MARRIAGE STORY
Scarlett Johansson in JOJO RABBIT
Florence Pugh in LITTLE WOMEN
Margot Robbie in BOMBSHELL
Predicted Winner: Laura Dern
Confidence Index: 9.8
Could Win: No
Dark Horse: Scarlett Johansson
Should Win: Scarlett Johansson (though Dern is also fine)
Brief Thoughts:
- Of all the acting races, I have the slightest amount of less confidence in this one simply because maybe the Academy just really wants to award Johansson for the double nomination, but that is not happening so moving along.
Best animated feature film of the year nominees:
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD
Dean DeBlois, Bradford Lewis and Bonnie Arnold
I LOST MY BODY
Jérémy Clapin and Marc du Pontavice
KLAUS
Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh and Marisa Román
MISSING LINK
Chris Butler, Arianne Sutner and Travis Knight
TOY STORY 4
Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen and Jonas Rivera
Predicted Winner: Klaus
Confidence Index: 2
Could Win: Toy Story IV
Dark Horse: I Lost My Body
Should Win: ummm really any of them other than Missing Link and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Brief Thoughts:
- This is a weird year. I think the Academy really is over giving sequels things and unless forced to. So I am going with the Annie winner Klaus.
Achievement in cinematography nominees:
THE IRISHMAN
Rodrigo Prieto
JOKER
Lawrence Sher
THE LIGHTHOUSE
Jarin Blaschke
1917
Roger Deakins
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Robert Richardson
Predicted Winner: 1917
Confidence Index: 9
Sure: Joker
Dark Horse: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: 1917
Brief Thoughts:
- Now that Deakins has finally won, he may find that he just keeps winning so let’s get that trend started.
Achievement in costume design nominees:
THE IRISHMAN
Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
JOJO RABBIT
Mayes C. Rubeo
JOKER
Mark Bridges
LITTLE WOMEN
Jacqueline Durran
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Arianne Phillips
Predicted Winner: Little Women
Confidence Index: 7
Could Win: Joker
Dark Horse: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Brief Thoughts:
- When in doubt bet on Durran and dresses.
Achievement in directing nominees:
THE IRISHMAN
Martin Scorsese
JOKER
Todd Phillips
1917
Sam Mendes
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Quentin Tarantino
PARASITE
Bong Joon Ho
Predicted Winner: Sam Mendes
Confidence Index: 9
Could Win: Bong Joon Ho
Dark Horse: I mean if things got really weird Quentin Tarantino
Should Win: Bong Joon Ho
Brief Thoughts:
- History is on the side of Mendes, who is heading towards a second directing win.
Best documentary feature nominees:
AMERICAN FACTORY
Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert and Jeff Reichert
THE CAVE
Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod and Sigrid Dyekjær
THE EDGE OF DEMOCRACY
Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris and Tiago Pavan
FOR SAMA
Waad al-Kateab and Edward Watts
HONEYLAND
Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska and Atanas Georgiev
Predicted Winner: American Factory
Confidence Index: 3
Could Win: Honeyland
Dark Horse: For Sama
Should Win: Honeyland
Brief Thoughts:
- Honestly, this could go in so many directions. In the end, I am just going with the one that would allow the Obamas to be attached to an Oscar.
Best documentary short subject nominees:
IN THE ABSENCE
Yi Seung-Jun and Gary Byung-Seok Kam
LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL)
Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva
LIFE OVERTAKES ME
John Haptas and Kristine Samuelson
ST. LOUIS SUPERMAN
Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan
WALK RUN CHA-CHA
Laura Nix and Colette Sandstedt
Predicted Winner: “Learning To Skateboard In A Warzone (If You’re A Girl)”
Confidence Index: 3
Could Win: “St. Lous Superman”
Dark Horse: “Walk Run Cha-Cha”
Should Win: No Idea couldn’t watch these
Brief Thoughts:
- Just going with the one that fits best from subject matter and title.
Achievement in film editing nominees:
FORD V FERRARI
Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland
THE IRISHMAN
Thelma Schoonmaker
JOJO RABBIT
Tom Eagles
JOKER
Jeff Groth
PARASITE
Yang Jinmo
Predicted Winner: Ford V Ferrari
Confidence Index: 5
Could Win: Parasite
Dark Horse: Joker
Should Win: ehh either Ford V. Ferrari or Parasite
Brief Thoughts:
- This is a two-film race, and even though Parasite has momentum. I think Ford V. Ferrari will hold on, but if Parasite does win there is a good chance it is winning Best Picture.
Best international feature film of the year nominees:
CORPUS CHRISTI
Poland
Directed by Jan Komasa
HONEYLAND
North Macedonia
Directed by Ljubo Stefanov and Tamara Kotevska
LES MISÉRABLES
France
Directed by Ladj Ly
PAIN AND GLORY
Spain
Directed by Pedro Almodóvar
PARASITE
South Korea
Directed by Bong Joon Ho
Predicted Winner: Parasite
Confidence Index: Parasite
Could Win: No
Dark Horse: Pain and Glory if you just need to pick something else
Should Win: Parasite
Brief Thoughts:
- Move along this is a lock upon a lock upon a lock.
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling nominees:
BOMBSHELL
Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker
JOKER
Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou
JUDY
Jeremy Woodhead
MALEFICENT: MISTRESS OF EVIL
Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten and David White
1917
Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and Rebecca Cole
Predicted Winner: Bombshell
Confidence Index: 7
Could Win: Joker
Dark Horse: Judy
Should Win: Bombshell
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score) nominees:
JOKER
Hildur Guðnadóttir
LITTLE WOMEN
Alexandre Desplat
MARRIAGE STORY
Randy Newman
1917
Thomas Newman
STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
John Williams
Predicted Winner: Joker
Confidence Index: 4
Could Win: 1917
Dark Horse: Marriage Story
Should Win: Joker
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song) nominees:
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from TOY STORY 4
Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from ROCKETMAN
Music by Elton John
Lyric by Bernie Taupin
“I’m Standing With You” from BREAKTHROUGH
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Into The Unknown” from FROZEN II
Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“Stand Up” from HARRIET
Music and Lyric by Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo
Predicted Winner: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
Confidence Index: 6
Could Win: “I’m Standing With You”
Dark Horse: “Into The Unknown”
Should Win: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Achievement in production design nominees:
THE IRISHMAN
Production Design: Bob Shaw
Set Decoration: Regina Graves
JOJO RABBIT
Production Design: Ra Vincent
Set Decoration: Nora Sopková
1917
Production Design: Dennis Gassner
Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Production Design: Barbara Ling
Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
PARASITE
Production Design: Lee Ha Jun
Set Decoration: Cho Won Woo
Predicted Winner: 1917
Confidence Index: 4
Could Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Dark Horse: Parasite
Should Win: 1917
Best animated short film nominees:
DCERA (DAUGHTER)
Daria Kashcheeva
HAIR LOVE
Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver
KITBULL
Rosana Sullivan and Kathryn Hendrickson
MEMORABLE
Bruno Collet and Jean-François Le Corre
SISTER
Siqi Song
Predicted Winner: “Hair Love”
Confidence Index: 5
Could Win: “Kitbull”
Dark Horse: “Memorable”
Should Win: “Hair Love”
Best live action short film nominees:
BROTHERHOOD
Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon
NEFTA FOOTBALL CLUB
Yves Piat and Damien Megherbi
THE NEIGHBORS’ WINDOW
Marshall Curry
SARIA
Bryan Buckley and Matt Lefebvre
A SISTER
Delphine Girard
Predicted Winner: The Neighbor’s Window
Confidence Index: 4
Could Win: “Brotherhood”
Dark Horse: “A Sister”
Should Win: “Brotherhood”
Brief Thoughts:
- One of these films is way worse than the others so it will win because the Academy hates us.
Achievement in sound editing nominees:
FORD V FERRARI
Donald Sylvester
JOKER
Alan Robert Murray
1917
Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Wylie Stateman
STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
Matthew Wood and David Acord
Predicted Winner: 1917
Confidence Index: 8
Could Win: Joker
Dark Horse: Ford V Ferrari
Should Win: 1917
Achievement in sound mixing nominees:
AD ASTRA
Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano
FORD V FERRARI
Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow
JOKER
Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland
1917
Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler and Mark Ulano
Predicted Winner: 1917
Confidence Index: 8
Could Win: Joker
Dark Horse: Ford V Ferrari
Should Win: 1917
Achievement in visual effects nominees:
AVENGERS: ENDGAME
Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken and Dan Sudick
THE IRISHMAN
Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grabli
THE LION KING
Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman
1917
Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler and Dominic Tuohy
STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy
Predicted Winner: The Lion King
Confidence Index: 4
Could Win: 1917
Dark Horse: Avengers Endgame
Should Win: 1917
Adapted screenplay nominees:
THE IRISHMAN
Screenplay by Steven Zaillian
JOJO RABBIT
Screenplay by Taika Waititi
JOKER
Written by Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
LITTLE WOMEN
Written for the screen by Greta Gerwig
THE TWO POPES
Written by Anthony McCarten
Predicted Winner: JoJo Rabbit
Confidence Index: 4
Could Win: Little Women
Dark Horse: Joker
Should Win: Jojo Rabbit or Little Women
Original screenplay nominees:
KNIVES OUT
Written by Rian Johnson
MARRIAGE STORY
Written by Noah Baumbach
1917
Written by Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Written by Quentin Tarantino
PARASITE
Screenplay by Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won
Story by Bong Joon Ho
Predicted Winner: Parasite
Confidence Index: 4
Could Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Dark Horse: No
Should Win: Parasite
That’s it for my picks. This year I am either super confident or not confident at all so I guess we’ll see how that goes.