We are finally here. It’s time for the 2019 Oscars, and so, after months of writing words upon words upon words… here are my final predictions, with a brief explanation. You can get a more in-depth look at my thought process by looking at my Megathreads, which you can find here, here, here, and here. This year I am adding a Confidence Index that will tell you how sure I am about the prediction, and by extension how much you can trust it. The ratings will range from 1 to Coco–err “Shallow,” I mean, from 1 to 10.
It must be said that the Academy voting block still seems at a crossroads. The old way of voting is slowly being replaced as the new voting block continues expanding. There is a chance that this could lead to one of the more shocking Oscar nights in a while (both good or bad), where the Academy goes its own way like it never has before. So this is just my excuse already for when I am very wrong this year.
BEST PICTURE
Kevin Feige, Producer
Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee, Producers
Graham King, Producer
Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos, Producers
Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Producers
Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón, Producers
Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor, Producers
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers
Predicted Winner: Roma
Confidence Index: 3.5 (more than last year, but not by much)
Could Win: Green Book
Dark Horse: The Favourite
Also a Dark Horse: Black Panther
Also Also a Dark Horse: BlacKkKlansman
Because the Academy is Crazy: Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win: The Favourite
Not So Brief Thoughts:
I thought last year’s race was zany, and then this year came and blew that idea out of the water. It does prove what I thought last year, which is that this zaniness is the norm going forward. The days of the Best Picture race being a cinch are over. This year, though, provides so many options that will truly make precedent-altering history of some kind if any of them win. Just look at the chaos you can find in James England’s predictive model, which tends to do quite well. So once again I am just going to offer up the chances each Best Picture nominee has at this point. I am also going to offer up a best and worst (realistic) case scenario for each film to show the general degree of chaos and variance that this year’s Oscars could have.
Black Panther
- There has never been a film like Black Panther that could actually win Best Picture. It failed to get nominations in Directing, Writing, Editing, and Acting. Best Picture and Technical Awards nominations should not be enough to win Best Picture, but in a year like this, it might be. The preferential ballot system is really going to favor this film, which is likely to finish in at worst the top five in most voters’ ballots. Add in that this film won at SAG, which is the biggest branch of the Academy, and that this is the cultural film of the year, and it could be a very big night for Marvel. Ultimately, though, this is just a step too far for this film, and it is far more likely that it ends up with no awards at all than that it actually wins the top prize.
- Best Scenario: Six Oscars Including Best Picture (it wins everything but Sound Mixing or Best Song) and an angry Twitterverse
- Most likely Outcome if it won Best Picture: Three Oscars (Best Picture, Best Score, Best Production Design or Costumes)
- Worst Case: Zero Oscars and also a very angry Twitterverse (for what it is worth, a far more likely scenario)
BlacKkKlansman
- This film should have a better chance of winning Best Picture than it does, as it is the only film to check all precursor nominations, and there has been a swell of support building for this movie recently because a lot of people want to reward Spike Lee. Ultimately, though, it is just too far behind at this point, and it will come up short in the end simply because the buzz for it was so uneven during the awards season.
- Best Scenario: Five Oscars (everything but Best Supporting Actor)
- Most likely Outcome if it won Best Picture: Three Oscars (Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Score)
- Worst Scenario: No Oscars after being upset in Adapted Screenplay
Bohemian Rhapsody
- This film will not die, no matter what shit is thrown at it. I would almost find this impressive if this film wasn’t a piece of shit being carried by Rami Malek’s great performance. People really love Queen, even if the movie about Queen sucks. There is a lot of buzz that this film could win everything it is nominated for but Best Picture, which means that it could also win Best Picture. Ultimately, the preferential ballot system will hurt this film, because while it is liked, it is very divisive, and the people that don’t like this movie like me think it is truly terrible, so there are going to be a lot of 7th and 8th place votes that will ultimately cost this film a Best Picture win. But it is still way closer to a win than it has any right to be.
- Best Scenario: Five Oscars in an Oscar Sweep that causes all of the world to break out into a cultural civil war
- Most likely Outcome if it won Best Picture: The above scenario is the only way it wins Best Picture, so instead I will offer up that its Best Scenario is that it pulls a Traffic and wins everything except Best Picture)
- Worst Scenario: One Oscar Win (for either one of the sound categories or Best Actor)
The Favourite
- This film is somehow the weirdest contender in a weird bunch. It always feels like it should be a strong frontrunner, but it has come up short at every major awards show. Even at BAFTA, where it won seven times, it failed to win Best Picture. It won Best Ensemble in many places but was not nominated for the same award by SAG. It had the most nominations at the Critics’ Choice Awards and BAFTA but came up short for Best Picture at both, so it is hard to see it finally winning here. Yet, this film has the highest ceiling of any of these movies. It has a reasonable chance of winning every category it is nominated in. It has nominations in all the places that matter, and the least amount of history or controversy to overcome. It is going to do quite well with the preferential ballot system. Really, if I trusted the Academy more this would be an easy choice, but I do not, so this film is likely going to content itself with a Screenplay win and at least one of Costume and Production Design.
- Best Scenario: 8 Wins (it has the greatest potential of realistic wins of any nominee)
- Most likely Outcome if it won Best Picture: 5 Wins (Best Picture, Costume, Production Design, one of the Actress categories, and Original Screenplay)
- Worst Scenario: Zero Oscar Wins (this should really be one, because while the chances individually of it losing all of its categories are stronger than you would think, because it is not a lock in any category, the chances of this collectively happening are very small)
Green Book
- This film has the least variance of any of the nominees. It is either winning three Oscars, including Best Picture, or one for just Supporting Actor. I am not sure I have seen a film quite like this, but, well, that fits Green Book perfectly. This movie managed to be both incredibly well-liked and divisive as hell, making it the second film to pull that off this year. Unlike Bohemian Rhapsody, though, it is actually a good movie, which has led to a lot of backlash from people who don’t like being told they shouldn’t vote for something that they like. Its message of “we are all people in the end” as a solution to race relations resonates with a lot of people (okay, a lot of white people) who just want to feel good about themselves. The preferential ballot system really helps this movie, that likely doesn’t get the most first place votes, but will get a lot of top five votes. Ultimately, though, I think unlike Black Panther this film is going to get more seventh and eighth place votes than expected, and that will make it mercifully fall just short of winning and embarrassing the Academy once again in a year of embarrassments.
- Best Scenario: Three Oscars including Best Picture and the Twitterverse riots
- Most likely Outcome if it won Best Picture: Once again, the only scenario is the above one, and this film has basically two scenarios at this point: either it does the above or…
- Worst Scenario: Or it does this, as it only wins one Oscar for Supporting Actor.
Roma
- If Roma was not made by Netflix and wasn’t a foreign language film, it would be the clear frontrunner at this point. Honestly, if even one of those things were not true, it might be the frontrunner. Overall, though, it just has the most going for it in terms of previous wins. Its win at BAFTA over expected winner The Favourite shows a real sign of support for this movie, and the large international presence in the Academy can only help. It is the clear leader in three other races–Director, Foreign Film, and Cinematography–and has some chance in every race it is in, other than the Actress categories. There is a lot of history to overcome, but in the end, this is both a safe and risky pick all in one. Roma is likely getting the most first-place votes in this category (just not enough to win outright); the question is whether that will be enough to overcome some other films that pick up the most second and third place votes.
- Best Scenario: Six wins (basically, it pulls an upset in two of either Screenplay, the Sound Categories, and Production Design, in addition to the expected wins)
- Most likely Outcome if it won Best Picture: Four Wins (Best Picture, Director, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film)
- Worst Scenario: Two Wins (Best Director and Best Foreign Language Film)
A Star Is Born
- After being an early favorite, this film has fallen hard, and now only barely has any real shot of winning Best Picture. A Best Song win is almost certainly in this film’s future, but that is the only thing that really feels possible at this point, with a slight chance of a Best Actress win still in the air.
- Best Scenario: Four Wins including Best Picture (Best Picture, Song, Sound Mixing, and Actress)
- Most likely Outcome if it won Best Picture: Three Wins (Best Picture, Song, and Sound Mixing or Actress)
- Worst Scenario: One Win (Best Song)
Vice
- This is the only film that has no chance of winning Best Picture. It just doesn’t have the support or buzz. It could still end up with a solid number of wins, as it is at the very least winning Best Makeup and Hairstyling, and has a real shot at Editing and Best Actor, but no version of this night ends with the Best Picture trophy.
- Best Scenario: Three Oscars (Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Actor, Best Editing)
- Most likely Outcome if it won Best Picture: There isn’t one
- Worst Scenario: One Oscar for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (a very likely outcome)
How I Would Have Ranked This Years Nominees if I Had a Ballot
- The Favourite
- BlacKkKlansman
- Black Panther
- Roma
- After this line, any win would be a real problem, because none of these films should have even been nominated. So I will be quite annoyed if any of these wins.
- A Star Is Born (I actually really like this movie, but Hollywood needs to just let this story die.)
- Vice
- At least the two above wouldn’t be a complete embarrassment, the two below would truly be new low points for the Academy, because either they would continue to support stories about race designed to make white people feel better about themselves, or support an actual poorly made movie that handled the sexuality of its main character terribly and was directed by Bryan Singer (no matter how much it tries to pretend otherwise).
- Green Book
- Bohemian Rhapsody
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper in A STAR IS BORN
Willem Dafoe in AT ETERNITY’S GATE
Rami Malek in BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
Predicted Winner: Rami Malek
Confidence Index: 8
Could Win: Christian Bale
Dark Horse: Bradley Cooper
Should Win: Rami Malek
Brief Thoughts:
- This is a rather closer race than it might appear, and Bale really has a chance to win this. Ultimately, though, this is Malek’s to lose, so he can look forward to giving another speech about how great Freddie Mercury is.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Olivia Colman in THE FAVOURITE
Melissa McCarthy in CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
Predicted Winner: Glenn Close
Confidence Index: 7.8
Could Win: Olivia Colman
Dark Horse: Lady GaGag
Should Win: Olivia Colman
Brief Thoughts:
- This is also kind of tough, but it is Close’s time to finally win. She won SAG, and that feels like the most important win above anything else. Colman and Lady Gaga have real shots here, and both of them could offer a real boost to their films’ Best Picture chances with a win, but the love for Close in the industry is going to pull her through.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Richard E. Grant in CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali
Confidence Index: Shallow, or 10, or maybe I should just have called it Ali
Could Win: Haha, no
Dark Horse: Oh, you seriously want one… Richard E. Grant
Should Win: Mahershala Ali, but if this was a category with only real supporting performances in it, Richard E. Grant
Brief Thoughts:
- This is the easiest pick of the night outside of “Shallow”. Ali is winning.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Regina King in IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
Predicted Winner: Regina King
Confidence Index: 6
Could Win: Rachel Weisz or Emma Stone (they will always be linked in this movie)
Dark Horse: Amy Adams
Should Win: Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone should share this award
Brief Thoughts:
- The hardest of the acting races to pick. If only one of Stone or Weisz was nominated then either would win here, but ultimately they are just going to split too many votes. King has had a weird awards season, but her earlier success is enough to overcome a BAFTA win by Weisz.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM (returned to real category status)
Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle
Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson
Mamoru Hosoda and Yuichiro Saito
Rich Moore, Phil Johnston and Clark Spencer
SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE
Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller
Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
Confidence Index: 9.5 (only not a Shallow because I don’t trust the Academy)
Could Win: Incredibles 2
Dark Horse: Isle of Dogs
Should Win: … Mirai
Brief Thoughts:
- If Spider-Verse doesn’t win so that Pixar can get a trophy for a good, but also very flawed and broken movie, this category should just be canceled. Isle of Dogs has a slight chance for an upset that wouldn’t break the category, but ultimately this is a showdown between Sony and Pixar that should already be over.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Łukasz Żal
Robbie Ryan
Caleb Deschanel
Alfonso Cuarón
Matthew Libatique
Predicted Winner: Roma
Confidence Index: 8
If history is not made: Cold War
Dark Horse: The Favourite
Should Win: Roma or The Favourite
Brief Thoughts:
- Roma is facing a hard challenge from Cold War, but just seems too strong not to hold on for the win at this point.
COSTUME DESIGN
Mary Zophres
Ruth Carter
Sandy Powell
Sandy Powell
Alexandra Byrne
Predicted Winner: The Favourite
Confidence Index: 2 (but I know it will be one of these two)
Could Win: Black Panther
Dark Horse: Mary Poppins Returns
Should Win: Black Panther
Brief Thoughts:
- This is the toughest choice of the night, as The Favourite and Black Panther both have more or less split the awards so far and are about as even as you could be. The Favourite is the traditional winner with all of its dress porn, while Black Panther would be the more cultural phenomenon pick. I just don’t trust the Academy to go against all those dresses, so The Favourite is the winner, I guess–and I hope I am wrong.
DIRECTING
Spike Lee
Paweł Pawlikowski
Yorgos Lanthimos
Alfonso Cuarón
Adam McKay
Predicted Winner: Alfonso Cuarón
Confidence Index: 9.5
Could Win: Spike Lee
Dark Horse: Yorgos Lanthimos
Should Win: Anyone but McKay
Brief Thoughts:
- This award would be a lock if this category wasn’t so stacked. Still, Cuarón is winning, as he has won throughout this entire awards season.
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes and Shannon Dill
HALE COUNTY THIS MORNING, THIS EVENING
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes and Su Kim
Bing Liu and Diane Quon
Talal Derki, Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme and Tobias N. Siebert
Betsy West and Julie Cohen
Predicted Winner: Free Solo
Confidence Index: 6
Could Win: RBG
Dark Horse: Minding the Gap
Should Win: Minding the Gap
Brief Thoughts:
- This is tough, and I wish Minding the Gap would win here, but this is a showdown between RBG and Free Solo, and Free Solo on the strength of its awe-inspiring visuals is going to get the win.
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
Ed Perkins and Jonathan Chinn
Rob Epstein and Jeffrey Friedman
Skye Fitzgerald and Bryn Mooser
Marshall Curry
Rayka Zehtabchi and Melissa Berton
Predicted Winner: “Period. End of Sentence”
Confidence Index: 4
Could Win: “Black Sheep”
Dark Horse: “Lifeboat”
Should Win: “Black Sheep”
Brief Thoughts:
- Anything can win here, even if “End Game” seems like a longshot. “Black Sheep” is the best film here, but there have been real concerns about whether it is a documentary. The only feel good film from this group is “Period. End of Sentence.” and even if I have some concerns about the maturity of male voters with this subject matter, in the end, this feels like the right movie to pick.
FILM EDITING
Barry Alexander Brown
John Ottman
Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Patrick J. Don Vito
Hank Corwin
Predicted Winner: Vice
Confidence Index: 3
Could Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Dark Horse: Vice
Should Win: The Favourite
Brief Thoughts:
- I am really not sure here. It is between Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody, which is like picking between a douche and a turd sandwich. So I am just picking Vice because picking Bohemian Rhapsody makes me feel worse.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Lebanon
Directed by Nadine Labaki
Poland
Directed by Paweł Pawlikowski
Germany
Directed by Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck
Mexico
Directed by Alfonso Cuarón
Japan
Directed by Hirokazu Kore-eda
Predicted Winner: Roma
Confidence Index: 9.9
Could Win: No
Dark Horse: Cold War if you just need to pick something else
Should Win: Shoplifters
Brief Thoughts:
- The only reason Roma loses here is if it wins Best Picture and the voters decided to spread the love. That logic has always seemed ludicrous to me, because it further devalues this award if it is not going to track with Best Picture.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer
Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks
Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney
Predicted Winner: Vice
Confidence Index: 9
Could Win: Mary Queen of Scots
Dark Horse: Border
Should Win: Border
Brief Thoughts:
- Vice is basically a lock here as a Best Picture nominee and for doing what this category loves best–making actors look like real-life politicians.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Ludwig Goransson
Terence Blanchard
Nicholas Britell
Alexandre Desplat
Marc Shaiman
Predicted Winner: If Beale Street Could Talk
Confidence Index: 4
Could Win: Black Panther
Dark Horse: BlacKkKlansman
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Brief Thoughts:
- I just have to go with my heart here. If Beale Street Could Talk has the best score, that should matter.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“All The Stars” from BLACK PANTHER
Music by Kendrick Lamar, Mark “Sounwave” Spears and Anthony “Top Dawg” Tiffith
Lyric by Kendrick Lamar, SZA and Anthony “Top Dawg” Tiffith
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from MARY POPPINS RETURNS
Music by Marc Shaiman
Lyric by Scott Wittman and Marc Shaiman
Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS
Music and Lyric by Gillian Welch and David Rawlings
Predicted Winner: When Cowboys– jk, it’s “Shallow”
Confidence Index: Shallow, obviously
Could Win: “All The Stars”
Dark Horse: “I’ll Fight”
Should Win: “All The Stars” or “Shallow”
Brief Thoughts:
- Look, the scale is one to “Shallow” for a reason. “All The Stars” has a slight chance, but Lady Gaga is heading one step closer to an EGOT.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Production Design: Hannah Beachler
Set Decoration: Jay Hart
Production Design: Fiona Crombie
Set Decoration: Alice Felton
Production Design: Nathan Crowley
Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas
Production Design: John Myhre
Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
Production Design: Eugenio Caballero
Set Decoration: Bárbara Enríquez
Predicted Winner: The Favourite
Confidence Index: 4
Could Win: Black Panther
Dark Horse: Mary Poppins Returns
Should Win: The Favourite
Brief Thoughts:
- This is really, really tough, but the pre-cursors slightly favor The Favourite, so that is what I am going with.
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Alison Snowden and David Fine
Domee Shi and Becky Neiman-Cobb
Louise Bagnall and Nuria González Blanco
Andrew Chesworth and Bobby Pontillas
Trevor Jimenez
Predicted Winner: “Bao”
Confidence Index: 5
Could Win: “Weekends”
Dark Horse: “Late Afternoon”
Should Win: “Late Afternoon”
Brief Thoughts:
- All of these are strong choices, but when in doubt go with Pixar, especially in a year that Pixar is going to miss out on Best Animated Film unless the Academy has been paid off, so “Bao” is the winner.
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Vincent Lambe and Darren Mahon
Jeremy Comte and Maria Gracia Turgeon
Marianne Farley and Marie-Hélène Panisset
Rodrigo Sorogoyen and María del Puy Alvarado
Guy Nattiv and Jaime Ray Newman
Predicted Winner: MARGUERITE
Confidence Index: 6
Could Win: “Skin”
Dark Horse: “Fauve”
Should Win: “Fauve”
Brief Thoughts:
- In the end, “Marguerite” is the feel-good and life-affirming movie in this category, and that is generally the way this category goes. Don’t be surprised if “Skin” wins, however.
SOUND EDITING
Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker
John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone
Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
Sergio Díaz and Skip Lievsay
Predicted Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody
Confidence Index: 6
Could Win: A Quiet Place
Dark Horse: First Man
Should Win: A Quiet Place
Brief Thoughts:
- Just go with the musical and pick Bohemian Rhapsody, but this is not as much of a sure-thing as mixing is, so A Quiet Place could pull the upset. Also, if Roma somehow wins either of these sound categories, just know it is more than likely winning Best Picture.
SOUND MIXING
Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin
Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis
Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio García
Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow
Predicted Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody
Confidence Index: 8
Could Win: A Star Is Born
Dark Horse: First Man
Should Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Brief Thoughts:
- Musicals do well in mixing, so go with Bohemian Rhapsody with confidence.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick
Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould
Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm
Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk
Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy
Predicted Winner: Avengers: Infinity War
Confidence Index: 5.5
Could Win: Ready Player One
Dark Horse: First Man
Should Win: Ready Player One
Brief Thoughts:
- A tough one that has gone in some really weird directions recently, which could bode well for Ready Player One, but the VES went with Infinity War so I am as well.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Written by Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
Screenplay by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
Written for the screen by Barry Jenkins
Screenplay by Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters
Predicted Winner: BlacKkKlansman
Confidence Index: 7.5
Could Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Dark Horse: If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Brief Thoughts:
- This is Spike Lee’s time, and this is going to be a consolation prize for when he loses Best Picture and Best Director. Can You Ever Forgive Me? on the shoulders of its WGA win has a shot, but in the end, Lee is not going to be denied. If Beale Street Could Talk should not be discounted, however, if you want a dark horse.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
Written by Paul Schrader
Written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Written by Alfonso Cuarón
Written by Adam McKay
Predicted Winner: The Favourite
Confidence Index: 7
Could Win: Green Book
Dark Horse: Roma
Should Win: The Favourite
Brief Thoughts:
- This category could be very telling about how this night goes. If Green Book or Roma win here, they are going to win Best Picture, so just prepare yourself from that moment on. Ultimately, though, the WGA snubs for both of those films means that BAFTA winner The Favourite is going to win the award it deserves the most.
That’s it for my picks. I have very little confidence as a whole compared to past years, so take all of these with many many grains of salt, but enjoy nonetheless!