Oscarathon 2019: Oscar Forecast Megathread – Other Best Film Awards

I have to give some credit here, none of these choices are a complete embarrassment. That may not seem like a high bar, but this is what happens when you’ve nominated Ferdinand and Boss Baby–you are no longer trusted to have standards. This year, though, there is no bad choice. In fact, all of these films are actually good. Are there quibbles? Sure, it would have been nice for Teen Titans Go! To the Movies to have gotten more love, or Ruben Brandt, Collector, but the worst film from these nominees, Ralph Breaks The Internet, was a sweet and fun movie that had a lot of really good things to say about how friendship has to evolve as we get older. The Academy resisted nominating Early Man simply because it was made by people that have been nominated before, and resisted nominating The Grinch simply because kids like it. This is a nice balanced group where any of them winning wouldn’t be a complete travesty.

The dopest film of the year could end the reign of Disney/Pixar

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

This film has come on like a raging supernova, and it looks to be the first non-Disney/Pixar film to win since Rango. Now, this is a technicality because Disney does own Marvel and has a partnership with Sony on Spider-Man projects, but l am willing to take this technicality. Spider-Verse won the Critics’ Choice Award, the Satellite Award, and most importantly the PGA Award, which is what really established it has the favorite. It got nominated for seven Annie Awards and BAFTA, so if it can win one and/or both of those it can really start to relax and get to writing a victory speech.

Pixar can never be counted out

Incredibles 2

The main thing that makes it impossible to truly trust Spider-Verse is that Pixar/Disney owns this category. The years Disney/Pixar lose are when the best they can offer is Cars or Finding Dory, and as much as I had issues with Incredibles 2, it is still a very good movie. It is also a very successful movie, and Disney is going to throw money at this as much as possible to keep the dominance of this category going. There is still plenty of time, especially with a leading 11 Annie nominations and a BAFTA nomination (BAFTA pretty much only picks wrong, when it doesn’t pick Disney/Pixar films as the winner). The main concern for this film is that the Academy has really been reluctant to give this award to sequels. The only time it did so was Toy Story 3, and that was mainly because the first two Toy Story movies were made before this category existed. Hell, before this year the only other sequel to even get nominated was Shrek 2. Likely, Spider-Verse is strong enough regardless to win, but next year the Academy is really going to be tested when it has to deal with Toy Story 4 and Frozen 2.

Wes Anderson will probably win this category one day

Isle of Dogs

Look, I could continue to list out the accomplishments of the remaining films, but well, none of these films are winning, because the politics of this category are simply different than anything else. Isle of Dogs has been consistently nominated throughout the awards season. It hasn’t won anything, but at some point, you feel like the Academy will reward Wes Anderson for his animation work. Due to that, it is not completely impossible that this film could win. I wouldn’t bet anything on it, but stranger things have happened.

OMG the Academy realized people not from Studio Ghibli make movies in Japan

Mirai

I still am in disbelief about this, honestly. I just didn’t trust the Academy on this. For the first time, Japan has gotten a nominee that is not a Studio Ghibli film (and really, more importantly, not a Disney film, considering the partnership between the two studios). After years of coming up short, most notably with Makoto Shinkai’s Your Name and every other great film Mamoru Hosoda has made (most notably Wolf Children), Hosoda has broken through. Now, there is no universe in which this film wins, even if it is a deserving choice. The nomination is what matters here, and maybe one day an anime film can win again. This will not be that day.

Even Disney doesn’t care about this film at this point

Ralph Breaks The Internet

Disney doesn’t care about this film, so why should I? Everything it has going for it also applies to Incredibles 2, which is definitely the favored one of the two films from the Disney/Pixar Illuminati. It does have 10 Annie nominations, so if something weird happens there (and let’s be honest, that would not be all that surprising), that could change things, but the victory for this movie was that it proved Disney’s clout in getting a nomination no matter what as long as the film is somewhat good.

We were believing, but now we can actually be confident about this as Spider-Verse swept and won all seven of the awards it was nominated for, including the big prize for Best Animated Feature. The Annies, as stated before, are even more in the tank for Disney/Pixar than the Oscars are, so this is a huge deal. This shows that the industry as a whole is behind Spider-Verse, and we can all relax again from the cynical belief that the Academy will just pick a Disney/Pixar film no matter what (don’t worry, I am sure Frozen 2 or Toy Story 4 will win everything next year, so we will be back in this fresh hell soon enough). Now look, this still isn’t as big a deal as Mirai or even Isle of Dogs winning, considering Sony is a huge studio, but let’s all just take the victories where we can. Also, Mirai won Best Independent Animated Film!

The Spider-Verse train keeps on moving, and now the only reason this film doesn’t win is if Disney/Pixar literally has paid off this category, because nothing else has won anything this awards season. I, of course, am mostly joking about such a thing, but seriously, if Spiderverse loses to Incredibles 2, which seems like virtually the only version that would make any sense at all, this category should be abolished and renamed the Let’s Honor Disney & Pixar Award. Luckily, kids love Spider-Verse, so they will make sure their family members vote correctly.

This category always tends to surprise with its choices, but no snub from this year may have been bigger than PGA winner Won’t You Be My Neighbor, which was not only expected to be nominated but to actually win as well. Its exclusion was a shock to many. It was so big it made it seem less weird that Sundance winner Three Identical Strangers also failed to get nominated. After those two, the rest of the shortlist seemed as likely to get nominated as anything else on the list, so it is hard to say any of the rest were snubs, really, though Shirkers also had a bit of buzz. The films that did get nominated, however, were still quite impressive, and this is a list that like last year offers many possible winners.

Adrenaline rush for the win

Free Solo

This film is an adrenaline rush of excitement and terror, and it seems positioned to take the top prize right now. This film got Satellite, BAFTA, and PGA nominations, and has the inspirational vibe that served a lot of the past winners of this category well. A win at BAFTA would help solidify this spot, but even without it, this film is positioned well to win after Won’t You Be My Neighbor failed to get nominated.

Netflix is primed to break through

RBG

This is likely the sentimental favorite, as almost everyone loves Ruth Bader Ginsburg, especially in Hollywood. This film has gotten BAFTA, Satellite, and PGA nominations throughout the season, and has stayed right in the thick of things even if it has no wins so far. A lot of people are going to love making a political statement, especially when the movie is good. So if this can win at BAFTA, then the film will be ready to pounce for a win.

The Underdog

Minding the Gap

This is one of the best-reviewed films of the year, and it was able to pick up the win at the Satellite Awards, but unfortunately, it just lacks the more mainstream appeal of Free Solo and RBG. It is very beloved and the best film in this category, though, so it could still win. But that seems unlikely at this juncture.

Hope you’re happy to be here

Of Fathers and Sons

Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Both of these films did very well to get nominations, but they are just so far behind the other three in this category that they can both be written off at this point. Drink up, because neither of you are winning.

BAFTA Update:Free Solo picks up more momentum, and more assuredly has taken the pole position for this award. It could still go a number of ways, but everything is trending Free Solo‘s way right now.

These nominations were mostly as expected, which is a rarity in this category. Never Look Away was the only one that kind of qualifies as a surprise. The biggest snub because of that mild surprise was either Burning, which looked like it could finally end South Korea’s long Oscar drought, or the Danish entry The Guilty. The other two shortlist films, Kazakhstan’s Ayka and Colombia’s Birds of Passage, were likely always going to be stretches to get nominated. Of course, that doesn’t even factor in many films that missed the shortlist, like Dogman, or Best Makeup and Hairstyle nominee Border. Still, everyone is just chasing second place at this point, so this all matters much less than it normally does. This award is Roma‘s unless some true chicanery occurs.

I mean come on this is pointless

Roma

This award has been Roma‘s for some time. It has dominated the awards season in this category and soared to 10 nominations, which is just unheard of for a Foreign Language Film nominee. This and Best Song with “Shallow” are the locks of the night, just pick this and move on to harder categories.

Fine, here is one other real option

Cold War

Look, it is really silly to even talk about the other films at this point, but Cold War did its own impressive feat by getting nominated for three Oscars. It has seemed positioned as Roma‘s number two most of this awards season, and if the voters decide that the love should be spread to a different Foreign Language Film if Roma is going to win Best Picture, then this is the movie that would take advantage of that, but that logic is ridiculous, and no DGA and Bradley Cooper shenanigans are going to happen here.

The rest

Never Look Away

Shoplifters

Capernaum

These are all really good movies. Never Look Away was able to get a second Oscar nomination and join the same rarified air as the two films already talked about. Shoplifters is the Palme d’Or winner from the past year and the actual best movie in this category. Capernaum is an effective and emotionally resonant tale. None of them are winning this award, and should just start pre-gaming now, because those involved with these great film are not going to need to be sober.

As if Roma needed any more help, it picks up another award. Can we just save time by opening the Oscars with the acceptance speech for this movie in this category?

Without having seen these yet, there is not much to offer other than that “A Night At the Garden” appears to be some sort of critique of Nazi propaganda, which could seem awfully familiar to a lot of people based on current events, while “Lifeboat” is about refugees. Topical issue films tend to do well in this category, so that may give each a leg up.

Now that I have seen them, I am obviously doomed to go in the wrong direction. “Black Sheep” was the best of the lot, while “End Game” was likely the worst, but all of them were pretty good, so that is not as much of an insult as you would expect. “Period. End of Sentence.” is the kind of inspirational film that could do really well if I trusted that the male members of the Academy could watch a film about periods without freaking out (I do not). “Lifeboat” is a solid film, and the refugee aspect is timely. “A Night In The Garden” is not a documentary (It’s assembled archival footage making it a documentary, I will die on this hill – Ed), but its timeliness could really bring it home, especially with the film trying to get some added publicity by airing commercials on cable news networks. As usual, really any of these could win, but right now I would go with “Black Sheep” because it is the best film and its story of racism and doing whatever it takes to fit in will resonate the most with voters. With that said, “Period. End of Sentence.” is the only lighter film out of these. and despite other issues that may be enough to carry it to a win as well.

The only one of these I have seen so far is “Bao”. Generally, Pixar doesn’t do particularly well in this category because the voters tend to want to spread the wealth a bit, considering how dominant Pixar is in the feature category. Still, Pixar did pick up a win two years ago, which felt like a consolation prize for not nominating Finding Dory. Considering the expectations and financial success of Incredibles 2, it is possible that voters might feel compelled to make it up to Pixar once again if Spider-Verse does ultimately win.

This was the year of parental shorts, it appears. Every one of these films except for “Animal Behaviour” dealt with parent/child relationships at some level. The best of the group was probably “Late Afternoon”, but all of them were good. Nothing really changes the fact that “Bao” seems like the best bet, so if nothing else, you can know that you will not lose too much ground if you simply go with it.

The main thing I have learned from this category over the years is that England does really well and it tends to go towards either lighter films or very, very maudlin ones. We’ll see what this year’s crop brings when I get a chance to watch.