Oscarathon 2019: Oscar Forecast Megathread – Creative Awards

Nothing terribly surprising here considering four of the nominees were Best Picture nominees, so really it was down to a bunch of movies for one spot. Eighth Grade seemed to have the inside track with a WGA and BAFTA nomination, or maybe A Quiet Place, which also had a WGA nomination. BAFTA also nominated Cold War, so that was also an option. Animation has proven a good ground for nominations in years past, but nothing sparked the imagination for voters so much this year in that genre. Still, this category has proven in the past to be one that can offer up single nominations for deserving films, and in this case, it did once again with First Reformed. Still, overall the biggest thing about this category is that it will see a showdown between three of the Best Picture favorites. This could prove vital because since 2000, only five films have won Best Picture without winning a screenplay Oscar so the losers in this category could find themselves out of luck. Of course, The Shape of Water overcame that last year and this year is full of exceptions, so who the hell knows.

Because everyone has lost their minds

Green Book

Blame the Golden Globes for this. They are the ones that decided to give a screenplay award to this movie over The Favourite and Roma (not to mention If Beale Street Could Talk, included in the Globes’ combined screenplay category). The WGAs and BAFTAs also nominated this movie, so they aren’t helping. As bad as it is that Green Book is in the thick of the Best Picture race, the fact that it could win this race is even more distressing. The film is good but overrated, but the script is by far the weakest part and pedestrian at best. This is not the kind of script that should even be nominated. The one thing I will say is that Green Book is probably only winning this category if it also wins Best Picture, but for now, it has the best profile, so in front it goes.

What should be the runaway… favourite.

The Favourite

This seemed like a slam dunk early in the season. The script is one of, if not the strongest part of this film, and if nothing else this would be the easiest way to award the movie, but no major victories have happened yet. Combine that with the lack of a WGA nomination because it was ineligible, and this film may just be cursed to come up short in all major categories. Still, BAFTA is coming, and there is a good chance The Favourite is going to do quite well there. A win would finally put it into the victory circle, which could be just enough to allow voters to have confidence that it can keep winning as long as they are willing to vote for it. Until that happens, though, this film is lagging and slowly losing its momentum.

That Best Picture buzz can lead to victory

Roma

Roma‘s rising Best Picture odds after its nomination haul is a good boon for this category. While Roma likely doesn’t need to win this category in order to win Best Picture, if it did win that would all but assure that it would. It wouldn’t be that out there either, as Roma has BAFTA and WGA nominations, so it could still pick up some major victories–especially at the WGAs, where The Favourite is ineligible. Right now it should still be counted behind both The Favourite and Green Book simply because it has mostly been forgotten in this category, but that could change very, very quickly.

At least they got nominated

Vice

First Reformed

It can be argued that Vice should be in a separate category because it has gotten Golden Globes and WGA nominations, while First Reformed has none of those but did win the Critics’ Choice Award (so maybe they are about the same). Still, neither one of these is winning this Oscar. Though I guess if Vice pulls if a massive upset it would be hard to believe it wouldn’t also win this category. The chances of that, though, are so small that we can just move right along.

The Favourite is finally on the board. Without a WGA nomination, this was really needed in order for The Favourite to establish itself as a true contender in this category. Combine this with The Favourite‘s Oscar nomination haul and this script is in the pole position for this category. It remains to be seen if the WGAs will offer anything that changes this assumption.

Well, that wasn’t very helpful. Instead of offering some more clarity on things, the WGAs went with Eighth Grade. This is the first time since 2003, when Bowling for Columbine won, that the WGA winner did not even get nominated for an Oscar. Strangely, this is probably the best result for The Favourite, which was not a WGA nominee due to being ineligible. Instead of something like Roma or Green Book gaining momentum, the WGA voters showed a lack of support for them by deciding to reward a film that has quite a bit of love from the industry but got overlooked at the Oscars.

This also seemed like a rather tidy category, with the other four Best Picture nominees seeming like easy assumptions for four of the spots, but Black Panther failed to get a nomination, especially surprising considering it got WGA, Scripter Awards, and Critics’ Choice Awards nominations. Now, this is not the worst thing, as honestly the script is the weakest part of Black Panther, so it was always dubious that it deserved a nomination to begin with. Can You Ever Forgive Me? seemed like it was a lock for a spot too, so that left a number of films figuring they would be left out before the surprised exclusion of Black Panther. First Man would have made a lot of sense seeing as it had both Critics’ Choice and BAFTA nominations, but it too fell short. The Death of Stalin got a Scripter nomination but also came up short. There could have been an argument made for Spider-Man: Into The Spiderverse, but alas there would be no superhero films in this category this year. Instead, the siren song of the Coens proved to be what got the final nomination and the right to lose to either BlacKkKlansman or If Beale Street Could Talk. Unlike the Original Screenplay category, which is a three-way race, this one is more or less down to two, while the others should just be happy to be nominated.

The Past Winner Returns

If Beale Street Could Talk

The Critics’ Choice Awards winner in this category, and thus the slight favorite at this exact moment. This is a tenuous hold seeing as Beale Street fell short of a Best Picture nomination, and with Regina King heavily favored to win Best Supporting Actress this category isn’t even the best place to get an award to this movie. Still, Jenkins has won before, and if Beale Street can pick up wins at WGA and BAFTA it could solidify into a true favorite.

Is it Lee’s time?

BlacKkKlansman

Spike Lee has never won an Oscar. Hell, he has only been nominated once before this (also for writing, for Do the Right Thing). Sure, he was given an honorary Oscar, but that is nowhere near the same. So I guess I am saying he is due to win one here, just as he is due to win one for directing. Now, directing at this point seems like a longshot, but this category is ripe for the taking. Lee only has one other competitor to worry about, in the form of Jenkins and Beale Street, and the fact that Beale Street did not get a Best Picture nomination while BlacKkKlansman did is a huge advantage for Lee. There are two opportunities for BlacKkKlansman to compete directly against Beale Street at BAFTA and the WGA, and a win in either could shift things to BlacKkKlansman‘s favor, as the narrative of giving Spike Lee his first Oscar and letting him come up to give a speech after all this time could be too much of an opportunity for many of the voters to pass up on.

Sometimes the Academy is really lazy

A Star Is Born

Umm, I mean, sure. This might be even worse than Green Book, simply because the script is so minimal in this movie. The direction and acting are what make it shine. The only reason it got nominated is because it is a Best Picture nominee, and the Academy (and other awards shows) have real trouble most of the time being willing to leave out a Best Picture nominee even if its script is subpar. What makes this especially annoying is the Academy actually proved willing to do such a thing in the case of Black Panther, which also was not worthy of an Oscar nomination for its screenplay (though it was more worthy than A Star Is Born). So considering all that, and the fact that A Star Is Born has been in freefall, don’t bet on it winning–but if the Academy splits on the top two, or just fully decides to embark on a year of terrible Oscar decisions, this script certainly can’t be completely be counted out.

Thanks for coming, enjoy the booze

The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Can Your Every Forgive Me? continues it streak of being an also-ran in a category while The Ballad of Buster Scruggs likely got nominated simply because it is a Coen Brothers’ movie, and that is just kind of what the Academy tends to do with Coen Brothers’ movies. Neither have a real chance of winning against three Best Picture nominees, so these are nice nominations in all, but once again, let’s just keep moving.

For the first time since 2009, the Scripter Awards are not going to be predicting the Oscar winner. That is because the winner was Leave No Trace, which was not nominated for an Oscar. Still, it is nice that someone gave an award to Leave No Trace, and maybe such recognition will mean Debra Granik doesn’t have to wait seven more years to make another movie (after Winter’s Bone).

BlacKkKlansman picks up the win, and takes control of this race. Nothing is guaranteed yet, and the WGAs will be much more helpful in this category than they are for Original Screenplay, but it does seem like we are heading to Spike Lee getting his first competitive Oscar.

Well, that was a surprise as Can You Ever Forgive Me? scored a huge upset over both If Beale Street Could Talk and BlacKkKlansman (and I guess A Star Is Born). The WGA Awards do tend to diverge from the Oscars, but mainly in the Original Category. In the Adapted Category since 2000 the WGAs have only differed five times from the Oscars, and one of those years was when Moonlight was in the Original Category at the WGAs (which it won) and the Adapted Category everywhere else. So this could be a game-changer. It is still hard to believe that ultimately Beale Street or BlacKkKlansman could lose come Oscar time, but history is not on either of their sides.

None of these choices were too surprising, as all of them have more or less gotten nominations in all the major places. The two films that ultimately got left out were Crazy Rich Asians and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald. Crazy Rich Asians got Critics’ Choice Awards and ADG nominations while Fantastic Beasts got Satellite, BAFTA, and ADG nominations, but both came up short here. Instead we are left with five very deserving nominees that all at least somewhat have a chance of winning come Oscar night.

The Two Favorites

Black Panther

The Favourite 

These two films have the most going for them right now. Black Panther won the Critics’ Choice Award and got a Satellite Awards nomination, while The Favourite has not won something as big as Black Panther has, but did get a nomination from the Critics’ Choice, Satellite, and most importantly, BAFTA. Both films also got a nomination each from the Production Design Guild, but they are in separate categories, so there is a chance that the PDG may not show anyone too much if they both happen to win. All of this leaves us with virtual co-favorites, with Black Panther being the slight leader right now, seeing as it has actually won a major award. But this could change after BAFTA and/or if the ADG Awards happen to not go well for either film.

The Fantasy Period Disney Special

Mary Poppins Returns

The Satellite Awards winner as well as a nominee with the ADG, BAFTA, and Critics’ Choice. The problem is simply that it is not a Best Picture nominee like the two above it are, so that makes it a step behind them, but it has the profile just about as well as the top two, and if it can pull off another win it could jump to the front very quickly.

Also here

First Man

Roma

Unlike other categories where the bottom two virtually have no shot, this one has two nominees that have very similar profiles. Both got nominations at ADG, BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and Satellite Awards, so they have been pretty consistently in the mix of things this whole awards season. The problem is neither has picked up a victory so far, but if either can win at BAFTA and/or the ADG, that could change this race quite a bit. For now, though, both of these films are stuck at the bottom.

Well, this wasn’t the most helpful. Black Panther won Fantasy Film and The Favourite won for Period Film. Traditionally, the Period Award has proven to be a better indicator for winners, but the Fantasy Film Award has proven to be quite good as well as of late. So that doesn’t really help all that much, as we are basically in the same place we were before this happened, with one key exception: now both of them have more victories over the other nominees in this category. The Favourite beat Roma and First Man while Black Panther beat Mary Poppins Returns. So that puts these two films really into the driving seat going forward, even if not much new is known about which one should be the true favorite between these two. Also, just as a note, Crazy Rich Asians did win for Best Contemporary, which doesn’t mean much Oscars-wise but is a nice accolade for the film.

This shifts things a bit, as The Favourite picks up the win. This means both Black Panther and The Favourite now are both tied with major awards. The thing is, Black Panther did not get nominated at BAFTA (because BAFTA has issues), so The Favourite has yet to win head-to-head with Black Panther when both have been nominated. So while this is significant, it also really just means these two are even at this point, and whichever of the two does better on Oscar night will also win this one.

This category continues to be quite the weird one, as Border becomes the latest somewhat obscure Swedish film to get an Oscar nomination. Of course, the other two nominees were the standard biography nonsense that this category is known for, so there you go. Films that ended up being squeezed out were Best Picture nominees Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and The Favourite, BAFTA nominee Stan & Ollie, Critics’ Choice nominee Suspiria, and well, anything that might be actually interesting. But hey, at least we can reward a movie for making people look like Dick Cheney, so that’s something.

The magic of making actors and actresses look like real-life politicians

Vice

Even if it had nothing else, this film has the fact that it is a Best Picture nominee and that this is the easiest way to get it an Oscar. That honestly might just be enough for this film to win–but it also won at the Critics’ Choice Awards and got nominations from BAFTA and the Makeup Artists and Hair Stylists Guild. Likely if it can do well at either of those two awards, it has a great chance of coasting to victory at the Oscars, but for now it is still comfortably the leader of this category.

Look at that Elizabethan makeup

Mary Queen of Scots

While not quite the profile of Vice, it did get nominations from BAFTA, MUAHSG, and the Critics’ Choice Awards, so Queen of Scots certainly has a chance to win, especially if it can get a win against Vice sometime soon. But it has an uphill battle to climb, because the Best Picture nomination advantage looms large in this category for Vice.

I mean, look at that troll makeup

Border

One of these days you figure the Academy will actually award the random Swedish film it decides to nominate. Maybe that will be a year that anyone other than the Academy actually nominates such movie for something. That, of course, is not this year, so there is nothing to suggest that this is the year a film like this can win, but who knows? Like I said, it has to happen at some point.

Well, The Favourite won, so that is kind of useless for us, obviously it was not nominated for the Oscar. Instead, this more meant neither Vice nor Mary Queen of Scots got an advantage from this award.

Vice moved into a more dominant position, as it won two awards in comparison to Mary Queen of Scots‘ one. Though it did offer an interesting split, as Vice won for Period and Special Effects Makeup while Mary Queen of Scots won for Best Period Hairstyling. This award tends to favor the makeup over hair, but if that was to change, that could be a gamechanger for Mary Queen of Scots. That seems highly unlikely, though, so Vice continues to be firmly in control of this category.

Ah yes, the pretty dresses category back for another year of fun. As much as I poke fun at this category, it has shown a willingness to at least nominate things that aren’t simply full of pretty dresses, but that still serves as a reliable indicator for the way the Academy will lean when picking a winner. Black Panther stormed in for a nomination against the norm (though not as much as you might think), but The Favourite, Mary Queen of Scots, and even at a smaller level Mary Poppins Returns all have premium dress game at times in their respective movies. So with four spots locked up it looked like Bohemian Rhapsody would be the fifth one with its BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and Costume Design Guild nominations (plus, you know, being a Best Picture nominee) or if not that, then Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, considering Colleen Atwood is Costume Design Oscar royalty and she won for the first Fantastic Beasts. Instead, in what has been a bit of a pattern, the last spot went to The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, because the Academy really loved this movie.

This looks a bit familiar 

Black Panther

The Favourite

This race is almost identical to the Production Design race. Black Panther once again won the Critics’ Choice Award while gaining nominations from the CDG and Satellite Awards. The Favourite got nominations from BAFTA, CDG, and the Critics’ Choice Awards, but this time it actually won at the Satellite Awards, so these two are more or less even at this point. That makes BAFTA feel like it will mean a bit more in this category than it did for Production Design, and even if they don’t compete against each other, things could change pretty quickly if either film fails to win at the CDG Awards. The main question at this point might be if the Academy is willing to split these awards or if they will be voted on together. Plus, you know, whether Academy continues to care more about dresses than anything else.

I mean, look at those dresses

Mary Queen of Scots

If The Favourite didn’t exist, this would be the film with the most on-point dress game. Add in that it scored nominations from BAFTA, CDG, Satellite, and Critics’ Choice Awards and this film might even be the favorite in other years. This year, however, it has proven to be a distinct third. That could change with a BAFTA or CDG win, but for now, it has some work to do.

The power of Sandy Powell

Mary Poppins Returns

Sandy Powell is a legend in this category. She now has 14 total nominations (breaking a tie with Colleen Atwood), two wins, and this is the third time she has gotten two nominations in the same year. Add in that this film got BAFTA, Critics’ Choice Awards, and CDG nominations, and it has a real chance of winning. The thing is that the other nominee from Sandy Powell, The Favourite, just feels like a much stronger nominee, and that is going to take votes away from Mary Poppins Returns. If BAFTA or the CDG Awards go the way of this film, though, that could change things quickly.

Sure, why not?

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

This is a bit of out of nowhere nomination, as it basically got no love the entire awards season. It didn’t even get a CDG nomination, which is just off. Suffice to say this film is not winning here, and we can just move right along.

(Coming soon. – Ed)

Much of that went as expected, with the general consensus agreeing around four of the nominees–or, well, three and the idea that a song from Mary Poppins Returns would get in. That left one spot that seemed to be between a number of contenders. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’ had Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations as well as Dolly Parton on its side, which seemed like a good bet, but apparently not enough. “Revelation” from Boy Erased had Golden Globes and Satellite Awards nominations. So too did “Requiem for a Private War” from A Private War, except it failed to make the shortlist. As did, well, any song from Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, which is just, well… ridiculous. In the end, the honor of getting to perform at the Oscars but lose to Lady Gaga went to a song from a Coen bros. movie.

Let’s get Lady Gaga an Oscar

“Shallow”

This may be the most obvious pick of the night, as “Shallow” has won virtually everything so far, including the Golden Globe, Satellite, and Critics’ Choice Awards. Really, the rest of the analysis of this category is moot at this point, because in addition to all that, this is a great way for the Academy to get Lady Gaga an Oscar without having to give her one for Best Actress. Of course, this could all have been said in 2015 when Lady Gaga along with Diane Warren were up for an Oscar for “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground. Lady Gaga was an overwhelming favorite in most circles and instead showed up to the Oscars so she could lose to “Writing’s On The Wall” and Sam Smith, which was kind of ridiculous (and this is coming from someone who actually likes that song). So history could repeat itself I suppose, especially with a valid contender in the form of “All the Stars,” but man, that seems so unlikely at this point.

Let’s get Kendrick Lamar an Oscar

“All the Stars”

This is the only nominee that has a real chance at beating “Shallow” and that is a remote chance. It did get Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, and Satellite nominations, but it also lost to “Shallow” in each of them. Disney and Marvel are going to push hard for this song, certainly, but unless there is a real backlash against Gaga in the coming weeks it is highly unlikely anything changes here. But if you want something else to pick, here you go.

Can we maybe one day get Diane Warren an Oscar?

“I’ll Fight”

This is Warren’s tenth nomination, which puts her into the dubious club of 10+ nominations without an Oscar win. I guess technically she hasn’t lost this year yet, but that seems almost a formality at this point. This really shouldn’t be an issue, but once again, the Academy decided to randomly to give the Oscar to “Writing’s on the Wall” instead of Warren and Gaga in 2015. Unfortunately, that is what happened, so that is an issue. If something really weird happens, I guess it is possible for this song to win, but more than likely Warren is going to have to wait another year.

Not like you can leave Disney proper out

“The Place Where Lost Things Go”

I mean, this was inevitable, Disney gets nominations in this category. The question was, which song? In the end, the Academy went with the correct song, as “The Places Where Lost Things Go” was the emotionally resonant tune from this movie. This song has gotten nominations in some important places, but it has consistently lost to “Shallow.” Combine this with the fact that Disney is going all in on Black Panther right now, and it is hard to see a world in which this song wins.

Sure, why not?

“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings”

Look, congrats, you get to perform at the Oscars, but umm… like, no, you are not winning, and I am moving on.

So BAFTA doesn’t have a Best Song category, but it felt important to note that A Star Is Born won for Best Music, which is a combined category. A Star Is Born‘s score hadn’t really gotten all that much love–in fact, it didn’t even make the Score shortlist with the Academy–so the songs were a big part of why the film won at BAFTA. So this just further reinforces that “Shallow” is the safest bet you have come Oscar time.

The biggest thing from these nominations was the fact that Justin Hurwitz failed to get a nomination for First Man. Not only was Hurwitz a past winner, but he had won the Golden Globes, Satellite, and Critics’ Choice Award. Now we are left with no clear favorite in this category. A Quiet Place was a Golden Globes nominee, while Green Book got a Critics’ Choice Awards nomination, but neither could turn those into Oscar nominations. Removing those three, however, left us with a solid group that is one of the few categories where every nominee can actually win, which is cool, but I feel I should mention that once again this category fell short of promoting diversity with women. Only 16 of the 156 eligible scores were by women (which is sadly quite a jump from past years), and none of them made the shortlist. This category, like most, has long been ruled by men (especially white men, but that at least is kind of changing), and it is a noticeable problem. Even if you use the standard refrain of there are only five spots, so not everyone will be happy (and that is a real thing), the fact is the composing game is still far too dominated by white men in the films that get awards consideration, and that has made it almost impossible for people to break through in this category. This group of nominees is still an impressive group, but man, even by Academy standards it stands out how male-dominated this category is. Moving on from that, though, there is no real favorite at this point, so I am mostly going from feeling and conjecture to pick this.

It could really be either of them

If Beale Street Could Talk

Black Panther

The profile of both of these films is very similar. If Beale Street Could Talk had BAFTA and Critics’ Choice nominations while Black Panther had Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations. Neither has won anything, but in both cases, these certainly feel like the two biggest threats in this category. In Black Panther‘s case this may be one of the only places it can actually win if Best Picture doesn’t go its way, and in Beale Street‘s case, the score is such an integral part of the film. A BAFTA win for Beale Street might help really separate these two, but otherwise they feel like co-favorites, and that may not change until we know which one wins (which may not even happen).

Desplat can never quite be left out

Isle of Dogs

Desplat is an Academy favorite who is likely to keep getting nominations at a fairly consistent clip for the rest of time. In this case, he also got BAFTA, Golden Globes, and Critics’ Choice Nominations. That is actually better than the two films above it, but Isle of Dogs simply doesn’t have the buzz that other films in this category does at this point. Desplat has the name recognition to pull off the win, but the film is definitely lower on the totem pole at this point.

Never count out a Best Picture Contender

BlacKkKlansman

Only having a BAFTA nomination would seem to put this film at the bottom of the list, but it being a Best Picture nominee gives it a bit of an upper hand, especially in a category without a clear favorite. Add in that this is probably the best place other than Editing or Adapted Screenplay to get this film an Oscar, and well, count this film out at your own peril.

It’s Mary Poppins, y’all

Mary Poppin Returns

It would be weird if this film failed to get a nomination, and it did get Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Critics’ Choice Awards nominations. This film has struggled, though, throughout the awards season, and that leaves it a bit behind the eight ball here, even though it has all the important nominations so far. This category is very tight, and there is no reason to believe as already stated that any of these films couldn’t ultimately win.

Not particularly helpful, since A Star Is Born won and was not even nominated for the Oscar. Hell, it didn’t even make the shortlist. Now, the thing to keep in mind is that BAFTA only gives an award for Best Music overall, so that likely played into this win, as in that case the Original Songs would actually count in that category, which would greatly benefit A Star is Born. So nothing new to help us predict Original Score, and it continues to be more conjecture and guesses at this point than anything else.