Oscarathon 2019: Oscar Forecast Megathread – The Big Six Categories

 So no real surprises with what actually got nominated, as these eight films were pretty much what everyone had agreed upon for much of the awards season. The only shock was the snubbing of If Beale Street Could Talk, which was, ummm, utter bullsh- unfortunate. It happens, I guess, and why bother nominating the best film of the year when you can nominate Bohemian Rhapsody, an objectively bad movie, just for kicks and giggles? There are some other films, such as Crazy Rich Asians or Eighth Grade, that unfortunately came up short, as well as some films in other categories like Shoplifters, Cold War, Mirai, Minding the Gap, and Spider-Verse that deserved greater looks in this category that they were never going to get because Foreign, Animated, and Documentary films just have way too hard a time getting their proper due (which makes Roma‘s nomination haul even more impressive). Still, the biggest thing to take away from this year’s nominees is that there is a reasonable argument that any of them could win, except for Vice, who mostly should just be happy to be there and not expect to really win anything on Oscar night (and even then there is a case for Vice to win, as you will see).

Controversial Contender

Green Book

I can’t quite remember a case of a film having such a rollercoaster of highs and lows as Green Book. It’s festival circuit run led to it gaining much acclaim because everyone loved a movie that made them feel so good (and by everyone I mean mostly white people). Then it seemed like everyone realized that while this film is good (and look, it is a good movie) the time for such movies winning Best Picture is done (even a nomination is a bit much, but like, sure, that can still happen). Especially after information trickled out that the family of Don Shirley was vehemently in opposition to this movie. Then the Golden Globes went and gave this movie a Best Picture and Best Screenplay award, and Green Book was back. Then the backlash was even swifter–in addition to Peter Farrelly using his victory speech to rail against people for daring to besmirch his movie, it came out that he flashed people on set in the ’90s. Then it came out that the writer Nick Vallelonga had his own issues, of the anti-Muslim variety. All of this seemed to put this film’s chances to bed… and then it went and won the PGA Award, because it made everyone feel good, or some nonsense.

So where does this roller coaster leave us in terms of this movie? I honestly am not really sure. On the one hand, this film has won two high profile awards for Best Picture, including the PGA, which has been one of the best indicators of Best Picture winners in recent years. The PGA has matched the Oscars Best Picture winner 9 times in the last 11 years, with one of those incorrect predictions being La La Land, which, well, everyone got wrong, so hard to count that against anyone. So really the only off year has been 2015, when the PGA picked The Big Short and the Academy chose Spotlight. The thing is, 2015 was also a year that seemed to have trouble coming to a real consensus on Best Picture winners, so that could mean that the PGA win doesn’t mean all that much this year. Even though the PGA Awards vote in a similar way to the Oscars, which is why they have matched so much in recent years, that might start to matter less and less going forward, because the expanded Oscar votership is causing the respective makeups of the Academy and the PGAs to really start to diverge. This might even out long-term, but for now, it seems very likely the PGA membership is going to be much less diverse than the Academy’s membership, which could cause them to diverge a lot more often going forward. That certainly happened with Moonlight beating La La Land for the Oscar, but this process is still a work in progress as last year showed with The Shape of Water (though that film was a weird combination of traditional and non-traditional Oscar elements that may have made it work for everyone). I guess the point of all this is, it is really hard to say how good of a sign it is that Green Book won Best Picture at the PGAs. The only thing that can be said is that it certainly isn’t a bad sign.

Continuing along, though, the Green Book case gets more complicated. The film will almost certainly win Best Supporting Actor and has key nominations in both Editing and Original Screenplay, so it has the profile of a Best Picture winner. Except it also doesn’t, because it both failed to get a SAG nomination and failed to score a Best Directing Oscar nomination (though it did get a DGA nomination, so…). Only two films have ever won Best Picture without a SAG nomination: Braveheart, aka, the seriously most underrated WTF Oscar winner of all-time (I mean, I have said this before, but seriously, this film’s win was almost out of nowhere, if Twitter existed then it would have lost its freaking mind over how ridiculous this win was) and last year’s winner, The Shape of Water, which of course had no major controversies, unlike the three that Green Book is currently suffering from. Meanwhile, only four films have ever won Best Picture without a Best Directing nomination: Wings, Grand Hotel, Driving Miss Daisy, and most recently Argo. Now, you may have noticed none of those films match, which means that no film has ever won Best Picture without at least one of a SAG nomination or a Best Directing nomination. Considering Driving Miss Daisy is constantly listed mistakenly as a film very, very similar in vein and message to Green Book, that offers some hope to this film, but the rest of those outlier winners had much stronger profiles than Green Book is likely to have come Best Picture time (well, okay, Wings and Grand Hotel are from the very beginning of the Oscars, so completely different circumstances apply to them).

Yet even saying all that, Green Book is still probably the slight favorite or at least co-favorite at this moment, because it has important accolades, and I just truly am concerned with how many people rave about how good it makes them feel. The Academy hasn’t earned my trust yet, so cynically, I will not count this film out, no matter how much history isn’t on its side. Also, this film has been strangely equipped to handle its backlash, so, everyone be aware that this is a thing that can happen and so be prepared for it.

People’s Choice

Black Panther

This film has been a sleeping giant for much of the awards season. The film is clearly the fan favorite of the awards cycle and is definitely this year’s biggest film culturally, just as Get Out was last year. Add in the Disney/Marvel machine, record box office performance, and the great press about it being the first superhero film that is unapologetically about black people (except for all the other ones – Ed), and you can see why this film might have some legs to it. It managed to stay in public discussion the whole year more or less since it came out last February, and has had plenty of time to have its faults discussed and forgotten. This being a year without a clear top choice made it an even more appetizing choice. The thing is, Black Panther simply hadn’t won anything, and that made it increasingly harder to believe it could then win come Oscar time; but then the SAG Awards happened, and Black Panther finally pulled off a signature victory. Now, people who probably really want to vote for Black Panther have been given the green light that others might be thinking like them and that there may be enough fans to guide Black Panther to victory–especially with the way Oscar voting works, because this film is likely to be in most people’s top five, even if it is not the top choice of that many comparatively. It had seemed more likely that such a win would come from the PGA, but SAG is just as effective as the spark Black Panther needed.

Still, while this all sounds well and good, there are a lot of reasons why Black Panther ultimately probably won’t win. The simplest being that this is not the kind of movie that wins Best Picture. The only thing that could even remotely be considered in the same vein is Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, which in many ways served as a way for the Academy to reward the Lord of the Rings trilogy as a whole. This is the first superhero movie to ever got nominated for a Best Picture Oscar (even if The Dark Knight and Logan were nominated in all of our hearts), and for a lot of voters that is probably as far as they are willing to go, which, well, is okay, because even getting a nomination is a big deal. This film doesn’t particularly need the win for validation, so a lot of voters may feel like something else deserves the win. The Marvel and Disney factors weigh heavily here as well, because even if all the money in existence is going to be poured into their awards run, there are still questions many are going to have about whether Disney and Marvel need this kind of recognition in addition to the general world domination they are achieving in cinema. How much that will factor in with the voters is unclear, but it certainly has to be considered.

All of this is before we even get to the historical indicators going against Black Panther. For one, it failed to get an Acting, Editing, Directing, or Screenplay nomination. Hell, it would be dire without simply one of those nominations, as only seven films have ever won without a Screenplay nomination, only four films without a Best Directing nomination, only ten without a Best Editing nomination, and only 11 films have won without any acting nominations. So it is very easy to see why nothing has ever won with the nomination profile of Black Panther (okay, technically both Wings and Grand Hotel, but the editing category didn’t even exist when both of those films won, and they were two of the first five Best Picture winners, and the early Oscars barely resemble the current ones), which basically scored a Best Picture nomination and six technical craft awards. The thing is, the other frontrunners all have their own issues from a historical perspective, so all of this may not matter. Especially because this movie is really good (despite the fact that Marvel’s inability to fully give creative control of a film to its directors meant that it was held back from being unequivocally the best film of the year), and combined with its cultural significance that may be all that matters in the end during a year in which people are going to feel very emboldened to vote with their heart over their head.

The Critics’ Choice

Roma

Roma should be the clear favorite at this point. It dominated the individual critics’ awards and won the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Picture. Director Alfonso Cuaron is the clear frontrunner for Best Director. The film pulled off 10 total nominations, which was tied for the most this year. This film is one of the most well-reviewed movies of the year, and Netflix is going to push as much money as it possibly can to try and get it over the finish line. So why isn’t it the clear favorite? Two very big reasons.

The first is the obvious one that while Netflix is a strength from a financial perspective, it is a weakness in almost every other way. There is still a lot of resentment towards Netflix for the way it operates and for how it is pushing the boundaries of what the movie experience should be. This has made it difficult for the company’s films to gain traction come awards season. Last year was finally a real breakthrough when the company picked up its first Oscar for Icarus, but that was the Documentary category. This is the Best Picture category, and it just seems like it might be too big of an ask for Netflix going from just barely being able to win the Documentary Oscar (a category for which Netflix has done nothing but help its profile) to winning the biggest prize of them all. Now, to be fair, Netflix has really tried with Roma, allowing it to play in theatres for roughly three weeks before it released on Netflix (and even if they have not actually released the official box office returns numbers, it is not as if Netflix tried very hard to hide the data). Still, old resentments die hard and, well, AMC, Regal, and Cinemark are refusing to play Roma in their Best Picture showcases, because they hate Netflix and everything it stands for. So it is questionable how much all Netflix’s efforts have been worth here.

Then there is the second issue: no foreign film has ever won Best Picture. Hell, only nine have even been nominated. The Academy just has mostly not been interested in giving too much love to foreign language films. This is mainly because the films have their own category, which for many voters means these films don’t need any more recognition (a similar argument is used for animated films). Now, I have always found such a notion quite silly, because the Oscar is not supposed to be for Best American Picture, but for Best Picture period; but what can you do? Roma is the first foreign film since Amour to get a Best Picture nomination, and honestly, the first one that feels like a real threat to win since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, which also picked up 10 nominations and seemed to have a real shot at winning both Best Picture and Best Director. It fell short of both but did end up with four wins overall, which is tied for the most ever for a foreign language film. There is a good chance that Roma could equal or tie that record, but the question is, can it make history by getting the biggest prize? This is certainly the kind of year that could allow Roma to win, with no definitive favorite, and more importantly, an increased emphasis on foreign films this year. Roma had 10 nominations, but Cold War also pulled off three nominations and Never Look Away got two, so all of this could mean that the Academy is willing to take the final step and finally award a foreign language film the top prize.

From a nomination perspective, the only thing holding Roma back is that it failed to get a Best Editing nomination. That hurts a lot, as just as I mentioned with Black Panther, only 10 films have ever won Best Picture without an Editing nomination (or a SAG nomination, but I have already talked enough about the importance of that, so just a reminder that only two films have ever won without one). The last was Birdman, which, well, was designed to look like one continuous shot, which kind of means it wouldn’t make sense for an editing nomination to be attached. So really the last film was Ordinary People in 1980. That is a long time, and it is not a good look for Roma. Still, the film has nominations in the acting, Screenplay, and Directing categories, so ultimately it may not matter. The key with Roma is that no matter what other awards it may pick up going forward, it is impossible to be totally sure it is the favorite, because just so much history has to be made for a win to occur. But the same could be said for Black Panther or Green Book, so the name of the game this year just might be making history no matter what.

Head of the Nomination Pack

The Favourite

It has been a weird awards season for this film. The Favourite has consistently been one of the, well, favorites to win big prizes for much of the season, but it has constantly come up short. It looked primed to have a big night at the Golden Globes and was then surprisingly defeated by Green Book for Best Picture and Best Screenplay. It had the most nominations at the Critics’ Choice Awards and mostly came up empty as it lost Best Picture to Roma. It did win Best Ensemble at the Critics’ Choice Awards, but failed to gain a SAG nomination for a similar honor. It lost at the PGAs, and failed to get a DGA nomination. Then when everything really looked to be going against the film, it stormed back with 10 Oscar nominations to tie with Roma for the most this year. It is one of three films this year with the important nominations historically to get a Best Picture win: Best Director, Best Screenplay, acting nominations (in some combination), and Best Editing. Most importantly, it seems really hard to believe that BAFTA will not shower this film with awards to give it an actual win to hang its hat on. All of this may leave The Favourite with the most variance of any of the films nominated. It could win Best Picture and a slew of other awards, or it could win nothing, and neither result would be all that surprising.

Overall, though, this film feels almost like the safest bet at this point, because the only historical indicator it has to overcome is the lack of a SAG nomination. But there are two problems with that logic. One, I say safest when grading on a curve, because once again, only two films have ever won Best Picture without a SAG nomination, but at least that has actually happened, unlike the other films which virtually all have profiles that have no historical parallels with other Oscar winners (that should tell you all you need to know about how truly bonkers this year is). The second thing is, this is all assuming it can actually win at BAFTA like expected, which has been the problem with this film all awards season. It is not eligible for the WGAs, so BAFTA is the only chance this film has to prove it can actually win something. Otherwise all it really has going for it is the high number of nominations. So I guess now all we can do is wait to see if this film can reclaim its, ummm, favoured status…. (I’m not proud.)

Ummm, Even More Controversial Contender

Bohemian Rhapsody

Excuse me, I just need to… AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH…AHHHHHHHHH…Motherf$@%&@&…AHHHHHH…

Okay, now that that is out of my system, we can try and talk about the most ridiculous nomination of the group, because at least Green Book is actually a good movie, while this film is a piece of garbage that poor Rami Malek was forced to drag across the finish line while being attacked by a swarm of bees (with some minor help from Miami Beach and Queen’s bass player). The editing and cinematography are an assault against the viewer’s eyes, to the point where you almost wonder if the editor and cinematographer went rogue because, you know, they both always work with Bryan Singer, who, you know, actually directed most of this movie no matter how much everyone involved tries to pretend otherwise because now no one can hide from the fact that he is a fucking terrible human being. Add in this film’s terrible handling of Freddie Mercury’s sexuality, which apparently he has almost no agency or control over according to the movie, and this is a truly shameful nomination. Sadly, Bohemian Rhapsody will not get its proper due, because this film is insanely popular, because people love Freddie Mercury and Queen and this film, no matter how bad, still featured an amazing performance by Rami Malek and also a bunch of Queen songs. Unlike Black Panther, which has a solid blend of fan and critical support, this film is loved by the very audience Oscar producers desperately want to attract while mostly disliked by the cinephiles that realize this film is terrible (yeah, I am being harsh, but this film is awful and everyone that voted for it should feel bad).

Rants aside, what is this film’s actual chances of winning? Hard to say. It has done pretty well throughout the awards season, getting key nominations, including a SAG nomination and winning the Drama Best Picture Golden Globe, which as much as I like giving shit to the Golden Globes, does mean something. It also picked up an Editing nomination (sigh…), and Rami Malek is the frontrunner right now for the Best Actor Oscar. Still, outside of the Globes, it hasn’t really won much of anything, and the Bryan Singer scandals seem to really be starting to take their toll on the film. Add in a lack of a Screenplay and Directing nomination, which, well, only Wings and The Grand Hotel have ever won without, and this film’s chances seem pretty low. Still, this film is strangely loved by a lot of people, so stranger things have happened, and the Oscars have been doing a lot lately to make it seem like they aren’t a joke, so they are due to do something stupid to jeopardize that. So don’t count this film out yet. Likely, though, this film needs a win at BAFTA to have a real chance.

Former Frontrunners

BlacKkKlansman

A Star Is Born

At one time both of these films seemed like they were the frontrunners to win, but now they both are barely hanging on. Of the two, BlacKkKlansman seems the best positioned to be a real threat at the Oscars. For one, it is the second of the films to have the key nominations in Directing, Screenplay, Editing, and Acting, which gives it a leg up on all the other Best Picture nominees. Other than Supporting Actor, it is at least somewhat a possibility that it could win in any of those categories. Add in that the political messaging of such a film winning, and the fact that karmically Spike Lee beating Green Book in any way would at least mitigate having to watch Driving Miss Daisy win all those years ago, and there is a case for BlacKkKlansman pulling off the win. This is especially true if you consider that this is the only film that does not have a historical red flag of missing a key nomination. The Favourite is the other that comes close, but it is missing both a SAG and a DGA nomination (even if it did get a Best Director nomination anyhow, so that probably cancels out). So BlacKkKlansman is the actual safest choice, purely because it isn’t missing any nominations that most Best Picture winners tend to share. Still, the problem is, this film has basically won nothing of importance in months other than some critic awards, and as of now, there is nothing coming up that BlacKkKlansman looks like it could win. This is why its loss at SAG really hurt, because that could have really changed things to the point that this film would now be the favorite to win, but as of now it likely needs a major win somewhere to really have a chance to win the big prize. A DGA upset, for example, would do wonders (as would a BAFTA win).

A Star Is Born, meanwhile, has just completely imploded. After seeming like an inevitable favorite for so long, the film has slowly watched its chances erode until now they seem pretty slim. A Star is Born failed to get either an Editing or Directing nomination, which pretty much is an impossible thing to overcome, Best Picture-wise. The Directing nomination failure especially hurt seeing as Bradley Cooper pulled off a DGA and Golden Globe nomination and seemed like a lock for an Oscar nomination. Meanwhile, Lady Gaga lost her place as frontrunner for Best Actress and at this point, it seems like only a Best Song Oscar is likely at this point for the film (and depending on how much Black Panther ultimately rises, you can’t even say that is 100% certain). Still, A Star is Born had too much clout early in the race to completely write this film off. It is highly unlikely, but strange things happen all the time at the Oscars. Plus, given this film’s fame and familiarity to voters, seeing as this is the fourth version of this movie to be made, it doesn’t have to win anything major honestly to pull off the surprise victory. It is a rather well-liked movie, which could help it get consistent 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place votes on the Oscar ballots, which is going to be the most important thing this year. Still, though, a BAFTA win would really be the shot in the arm this film needs to be taken seriously.

Oh, and Vice

Vice

Vice is the least buzzed about film in this group at this point, and it is the only one that would genuinely shock me if it won, which is strange considering it is the last of the three films that have the important nominations: Directing, Editing, Writing, and Acting. That is the profile of a Best Picture winner, especially considering it has a reasonable chance of winning Best Actor and as good a chance of any at winning Best Editing. The problem is this film just has so little buzz at this point. It has not really won anything, and its biggest claim to fame was having the most Golden Globe nominations. Vice has just felt so much like an afterthought through this entire awards season and there just seems like there is no way it could get the support needed to win Best Picture.

It wasn’t particularly surprising, but Cuarón’s DGA win if nothing else allows Roma to tentatively claim the top spot. This win likely means less than it would in other years, but it still gives more credence to the idea that Roma could make a lot of history come Oscar night. So welcome back to the top for now, Roma.

Well, this is something. While The Favourite generally dominated the BAFTAs with seven wins, including Best Original Screenplay, it was Roma that took both the Best Picture and Director prizes. While it is somewhat hard to take the BAFTAs completely seriously, considering things like Black Panther only earned a Visual Effects nomination, this is still the first time in a while that a consensus is forming and gives more information to suggest that this could finally be the year a foreign language film wins the big prize. Still, The Favourite‘s performance suggests it can’t be discarded yet, and it is possible it may now be the real threat to usurp Roma if voters just can’t get themselves to vote for a foreign film. Also, the controversies for Bohemian Rhapsody have finally seemed to have a real effect on at least its Best Picture chances, so we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

This isn’t much, and it was really obvious, but Roma won the best Ibero-American film prize. Normally, I would not bring this up, but this is another example of how a consensus is potentially forming across the world about Roma, and could show that we might be heading to one of the few times in history that the world as a whole came to a consensus on a movie being the Best Picture, as Roma has done well in many international awards shows as well as American ones. This narrative is at least worth noting. So just keep that in mind.

 Not surprisingly, the DGA nominees failed to match the Oscar nominees, but this time not just one, but two differed. The first being Peter Farrelly, which means for the second straight year the Academy has left out the director of a controversial frontrunner. Now last year, Martin McDonagh’s exclusion made some sense, because the Academy’s director branch has always had a bit of an issue with writer-directors, but Farrelly did not have a similar bias against him, so this was a bit weird. The only real logic is that it simply proves Green Book doesn’t have as much support as it once appeared; or it could simply be that the Academy’s willingness to decouple Best Picture and Best Director winners has also finally started to trickle down to not feeling obligated to give nominations to good, but not great directorial efforts (then again, Vice still got nominated, so who knows). Farrelly, while surprising, tracked, but the other DGA snub was downright shocking, as Bradley Cooper seemed like an absolute nomination lock throughout the awards season. The Academy has tended to actually be okay with actor-directors, but not in this case.

Of course, because this category is always brutal considering how few spots it has (it always feels like this category should have a variable number of slots, just like Best Picture), there were some strong contenders left out. The biggest being Barry Jenkins, which followed the general pattern of If Beale Street Could Talk being snubbed way more than it should have been. Ryan Coogler also came up short once again, which was upsetting to many. Then there is the lack of female nominees. Now, this is a really strong crop of nominees that is relatively diverse, other than Adam McKay, so I think it is a slight exaggeration to say that the exclusion of, say, Debra Granik, Chloé Zhao, and/or Lynne Ramsay, who all made acclaimed films this year, is an outrage; but at the same time McKay really didn’t need this nomination, so the category certainly would have looked better if one of those names took McKay’s place (or even Jenkins or Coogler would have been better). Those are the breaks, though, with so many qualified people for so few slots, and it really can’t be stated enough that the five nominees we got are quite a compelling group.

The Dominant Favorite

Alfonso Cuarón

• Let’s see. Cuarón has basically won everything of importance so far, including the Golden Globe, the Critics’ Choice Awards, and is the favorite for the DGA. Add in that Roma is one of the Best Picture frontrunners, and it is hard to believe that anyone but Cuarón could win at this point. Of course, that could change after the DGA Awards, but it is very unlikely, especially considering as already discussed, two of the DGA nominees didn’t even get Oscar nominations. It would be kind of interesting if he did lose, simply because it would make the race less predictable, but I wouldn’t count on it. Cuarón is a past winner, respected by everyone. Roma has his fingerprints all over it, and that is the reason it is such a strong Best Picture contender. This race is more or less done, and we are just counting down at this point to Cuarón’s second win.

About Damn Time

Spike Lee

• Seriously, how did it take this long for Lee to get a nomination? Early on it looked like this would finally be his year to win, but with Cuarón’s hot streak it looks like Lee will just have to be content with a nomination. Still, if anyone could beat Cuarón it would be Lee, who has the clout to overcome the aura of inevitability that now is attached to Cuarón. Add in that there is definitely a feeling that Lee should have an Oscar, and if Roma slips up at the Oscars this kind of upset could definitely be a reason why. I wouldn’t count on it unless BlacKkKlansman also does much better than expected, but Lee could win regardless, so if you really want to bet on someone besides Cuarón, here you go.

A Sleeping Giant

Yorgos Lanthimos

• Lanthimos felt like the biggest DGA snub, so it was not that surprising he ended up with an Oscar nomination. Other than Lee he is the only realistic alternative to Cuarón, and I mean that very loosely. Lanthimos’ biggest plus is that he directed the film that tied for the most nominations this year. Of course, the thing is, so did Cuarón, so it is not much of an advantage. If The Favourite ends up winning Best Picture it could trickle down to Lanthimos, but that is likely the only scenario under which he could win, which is why Lee ranks higher than him on this list. It also probably helps that for once he is not also a writer on the film, because that means this is the only way to reward Lanthimos specifically for his work on this film. I wouldn’t count on any of this too much, but it is at least possible.

The Nomination was Already More than Expected so Why Not?

Pawel Pawlikowski

• This nomination was quite a pleasant surprise. Pawlikowski had quite a lot of support, but it still felt like it would not be enough to get a nomination for a second foreign language film director. Clearly, though, the support was there. Now, even in a year with less of a dominant favorite, this would be as far as Pawlikowski would go, so in a year with Cuarón more or less assured of winning there isn’t even really a hope here. The nomination was a surprise and maybe if enough people actually watch Cold War a massive upset could occur, but don’t count on it.

…and Adam McKay

Adam Mckay

• Look, even in a year in which no one but Cuarón has a chance to win, McKay feels like a distant fifth. I guess if Vice just stuns everyone it is possible, but like, just no. McKay should just be happy knowing that he is respected enough to get a nomination even if his work is a bit uneven in this movie.

Cuarón’s win makes him an overwhelming favorite to win the Oscar at this point… This sounds familiar… Yanking words from last year (and the year before)… There have only been eight directors to ever win the DGA Award and then not win the Oscar: Rob Marshall (Chicago), Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon), Francis Ford Coppola (The Godfather), Anthony Harvey (The Lion in Winter), Ben Affleck (Argo), Ron Howard (Apollo 13), and Steven Spielberg (The Color Purple)… and Robert Rossen (All the King’s Men), sort of, because the wonky non-calendar-year schedule of the first and second DGA awards allowed for the man that beat Rossen for the Oscar, Joseph L. Manckiewicz (A Letter to Three Wives), to win the DGA for the first year while Rossen won for the second year before both men faced off during the same Academy Awards. Affleck, Howard, and Spielberg are also unique in that they are the only three to win the DGA and then somehow not even be nominated for an Oscar. Only Rossen, Coppola, Lee, and Affleck also won the Golden Globe and failed to win. So Cuarón is likely coasting to another win, and him winning would make it four times in the last five years that a Mexican director wins the Best Director Oscar, which is quite the run. Unless there gets to be a rallying cry behind Spike Lee, it seems impossible for Cuarón to lose at this point, so he should probably have multiple speeches ready, because he is likely winning a lot come Oscar night. Also, just as a note, I have no idea how the DGAs can possibly reconcile saying Bradley Cooper had one of the five best directing performances this year by nominating him for Best Director, and then somehow have him lose in the Best First-Time Director category when no one else from the Best Director category was also in it. This is nothing against Bo Burnham, who is awesome, but that just feels petty, and well, not a great look for the DGA, especially considering they similarly double nominated Jordan Peele last year and he did win Best First-Time Director.

Another win for Cuarón, and I think it is safe to say that he more or less has this all sewn up at this point. Unless he is about to be a Rob Marshall or Ang Lee, which is possible I suppose, there is no reason that Cuarón shouldn’t already have an awards speech ready to go.

So the biggest thing to come with these nominations is that Yalitza Aparicio was able to get a nomination in what proved to be a historic day for Roma. While not a complete shocker–after all, Aparicio did get a Critics’ Choice Awards nomination–it did seem like Emily Blunt had the inside track on this nomination. The strength of Roma, though, could not be denied, and Blunt was left out. The other four nominees pretty much went as expected, even if it was sad that there ended up no room for either Constance Wu (and really Crazy Rich Asians in general) or Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade). Overall, it is still a pretty stacked category where it is not completely impossible to see any one of these women winning.

Her Time Has Come

Glenn Close

• Close started this awards season as a peripheral contender, but then after her surprising win at the Golden Globes, everything has gone her way. She won the Critics’ Choice Awards, Satellite Best Drama Award, and the SAG Award, and now it looks like it is finally her Oscar time. It is hard to believe that Close has never won an Oscar, but this is her seventh nomination, which is a record for an actress to have without one win. Now, though, that looks to be finally changing, as this performance has her on the verge of beating much buzzier performances.

This Got Away From Her

Lady Gaga

• For months this seemed like Gaga’s to lose, but other than winning the Critics’ Choice Award (in a tie with Close) nothing has gone particularly right for Gaga since some individual critics victories earlier in the season. It is possible that part of this is the feeling that Gaga is almost certain to win an Oscar for Best Song for “Shallows”, so people feel less inclined to reward her in this category, especially when the alternative is to finally give an Oscar to Glenn Close. Or it could just be the general lack of desire to award A Star Is Born this year. Hard to say, but either way, Gaga is no longer the favorite, and unless something changes quickly, like say, a BAFTA win, it is doubtful she can pull off the victory.

Not Out of It Yet

Olivia Colman

• Much of what has been said about Gaga could apply to Colman. Colman’s main wins at this point are a Golden Globe and Satellite Award, but both were in split categories, so she has yet beat Close or Gaga when head-to-head lately. The reason for her to hope, however, is that BAFTA is likely to look favorably on The Favourite and everyone associated with it, which could allow Colman to pull off a victory and at least shake up this race at this point. But until such a thing happens, Colman’s fate may be tied to how well The Favourite ultimately does on Oscar night.

If Roma has a Historic Night

Yalitza Aparicio

• A surprise nominee who is likely just going to be happy to be there, but if Roma ends up gaining enough momentum to be a runaway winner it could trickle down to Aparicio. Such momentum might be necessary for Roma to overcome all the history against it, so this is at least a possibility. Considering she has yet to win anything of importance so far, however, this all seems fairly doubtful, but because it can’t wholly be discounted she definitely has a real shot.

Forgotten Woman

Melissa McCarthy

McCarthy has been consistently nominated at each of the major awards but has generally been an afterthought throughout the awards season. This is likely to continue up until the Oscars. It is not impossible to see McCarthy pulling off a victory, but it would be pretty out there, so McCarthy should likely be ready to drink up and party on Oscar night as she just enjoys this ride for as long as possible.

While not a complete success for The Favourite, one of the biggest takeaways was that Olivia Colman was finally able to pick up a key win against Glenn Close. It is possible that BAFTA just wanted to give as much as it could to a British film like The Favourite, so how much you should buy into what this win means is debatable. That doesn’t change the fact that Colman finally has her signature win, and if The Favourite has a big Oscar night, all of this could allow her to end up taking the Oscar in the end. Close is still the favorite, but not quite the dominant one she was before BAFTA.

After it looked like a six-person race for five spots with Ethan Hawke and John David Washington vying for the fifth spot, Willem Dafoe instead took the fifth spot in a surprising turn of events. This was unfortunate for both. In Hawke’s case, he went from a frontrunner to not even being nominated, as First Reformed just ended up with a Screenplay Nomination. Washington, meanwhile, creates an unfortunate look where his white co-star Adam Driver got nominated, but he did not. Now, Washington and Driver are in different categories with different levels of competition, but it is still not a great look. The other four spots went more or less to form, so no surprises there.

Frontrunner with a Shakey Movie

Rami Malek

• Malek has mostly locked down this category after winning the Golden Globe, SAG Award, and Satellite Comedy/Musical Award. The only thing stopping him from being a more solid frontrunner as you would expect here is the controversy attached to his movie. So far that seems to have had minimal impact on his awards prospects, but these kinds of things can take time, and the long Oscar season can bring weird results. Still, Malek seems impervious to these controversies so far, so I wouldn’t count on it. If he wins at BAFTA, that will likely be a wrap on this contest.

Hello Mr. Vice President

Christian Bale

• The only other thing that could stop Malek is the presence of Christian Bale, whose performance is normally the kind of thing that would easily get him an Oscar if not for Malek catching fire. Bale’s performance as Dick Cheney is impressive, and the kind of thing that normally wins come Oscar time. It already got him a Critics’ Choice Award and a Golden Globe, so he does have the fact that he actually beat Malek in a head-to-head matchup going for him. If Vice was a much bigger Best Picture contender that might also make a difference, but it is not, so that is also not helping Bale’s case. Bale, though, is the only real threat to Malek at this point, and as a previous winner, that can only help him.

Sure, why not?

Bradley Cooper

Viggo Mortensen

• I view these two in virtually the same way. They are both the lead roles in Best Picture contenders, and they both have virtually no chance of winning. Bradley Cooper has consistently gotten nominations this whole season, and at times has looked like a real contender to actually win. The problem is, he has won nothing, and for whatever reason, there seems to be an aversion to giving Bradley Cooper an award this season. Combine that with A Star Is Born‘s general decline in Best Picture odds, and there just doesn’t seem a real way for Cooper to win unless his film also gets on a hot streak. Mortensen, meanwhile, has not been as consistent nomination-wise as Cooper, but once Green Book took off, so too did Mortensen, who has been a constant source of defense for his beleaguered film. His main shot here is if Green Book really catches on with voters and Mortensen wins as well because of everything else winning. Overall, though, that just seems unlikely. So while both Cooper and Mortensen have a chance to win, it is doubtful they can break through above the top two at this point.

What a Pleasant Surprise

Willem Dafoe

• The surprising nominee–though, not too surprising, considering he did win the Satellite Award for Drama as well as Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Awards nominations. Maybe this is also an attempt to make up for last year, after it seemed like he was on his way to an Oscar win until he got run over by the Sam Rockwell train. Regardless, there is virtually no chance of Dafoe winning and he should just enjoy this nomination for all it is worth.

Even with all the controversies that affected Bohemian Rhapsody, Rami Malek was not affected and picked up another victory. He has won every major award except for the Critics’ Choice Award, and it is hard to believe we should all not prepare for another speech talking about how great Freddy Mercury was (which, I mean, he was, so not the worst thing).

The biggest surprise of the nominations was Marina de Tavira’s nomination. She got that nomination over Claire Foy, Margot Robbie, and Emily Blunt. The other four nominations went as expected to create a rather strong category that nonetheless seems to have a strong frontrunner.

The Consensus Favorite

Regina King

• King is a strong favorite right now, after winning the Golden Globe, Satellite, and Critics’ Choice Award. She would be an overwhelming favorite if she had also won at SAG, but she was strangely not even nominated. The thing is, the person that won at SAG, Emily Blunt, didn’t get an Oscar nomination, so that result basically has no impact on this race at this point. If King can win at BAFTA, it is likely a wrap for this race, especially considering this is likely the best place to make sure that If Beale Stree Can Talk gets an Oscar.

Can They Just Share the Award?

Rachel Weisz

Emma Stone

• If the Academy was willing to more easily allow people to share an award, it would make the most sense for Weisz and Stone to share this award, because both are so vital to their film. If I had to pick one to rank ahead of the other, Weisz likely has a better chance of winning than Stone, but this is by the most minor of degrees. In the end, though, they are very likely to simply split the vote too much for either to win. That said, Sam Rockwell proved last year that that is not always the case, and if The Favourite has a big night, either of these women could end up winning.

Still Not Her Year

Amy Adams

• At some point, Adams will likely pull off a win, but this is not that year more than likely, especially considering that if Glenn Close does end up winning, Adams will end up being in a tie for the most nominations without a win. Once again, though, this year was just not the right time.

Happy To Be There

Marina de Tavira

• This was a nice nomination, but yeah, even if Roma had the best night it possibly could have, it still wouldn’t involve a win for Tavira. Congratulations on the nomination, but there is no chance of a win.

Rachel Weisz finally picked up a major win, which puts a bit of doubt into whether Regina King is going to win, but honestly not much. Mainly because it is just hard to believe that Weisz will not split too many votes with Stone, and because King is awesome and beloved by all. But there is some doubt now, which there definitely wasn’t before.

This category had seven candidates for five spots, so there were always going to be snubs. In this case, it ended up being Michael B. Jordan and Timothée Chalamet, which is unfortunate. Both of them will likely have more chances, but it does seem like it would have been better if either one had gotten this spot over Sam Rockwell, who really didn’t need this nomination. Ultimately, though, this is a category made of one prohibitive favorite and four people lucky to be nominated.

Amazing, But Just to be Clear This is Not a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali

• This is the one part of Green Book that deserves all the praise, even if this is absolutely not a supporting role. Ali has won the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics’ Choice Award. The only thing he has lost is the Satellite Award, which was a bit weird, but likely won’t mean much in the end. The same thing happened when Ali ended up winning the Oscar for Moonlight, so this has happened before. Add in that this is potentially the only way to award Green Book without any controversy and it seems impossible for Ali to lose at this point. Still, just in case, let’s see what happens at BAFTA before a real coronation begins.

About Damn Time

Sam Elliot

• Finally, after all these years, Elliott was able to pick up his first Oscar nomination, which seems ridiculous, as you would have expected him to have one by now. With a less dominant frontrunner, Elliott would be a real sleeper to win this award, but that is not this year. With all that said, if you really wanted someone else to bet on, he is the only person that could possibly upset Ali at this point, especially if A Star is Born ends up doing better than expected come Oscar night.

If He Only Was a Bigger Name

Richard E. Grant

• Grant gives a truly inspired performance, and you have to wonder if in a different year he might have gotten more press, but this is not that year. Grant just doesn’t have the clout, especially with his film not being a Best Picture threat to win. This is a well-deserved nomination, though, and he deserves every chance to enjoy it as much as possible. He even got a Satellite Award for his trouble, which makes him the only person to beat Ali for one of the bigger awards, but that is likely just a blip in the end.

Kylo Ren Gets an Oscar Nomination

Adam Driver

• It is still a little weird that Driver got a nomination and his co-star John David Washington did not, but that certainly isn’t Driver’s fault, as he earned this spot with a great performance. It feels likely that he will win an Oscar at some point, but, umm, this is not that year, even if BlacKkKlansman has a big night.

I Guess Sam Rockwell Just Always Gets Nominated Now

Sam Rockwell

• I mean, if nothing else, it was an actual supporting role, but no offense, Sam Rockwell, your very good SNL Bush impression stole a nomination spot from Michael B. Jordan (well, more like Timothée Chalamet, but let me have this), who totally deserved to be honored. Suffice to say Rockwell was lucky to get nominated, and will not be winning.

Mahershala Ali wins, and now the coronation can begin. Get that speech ready, Mahershala.