We are almost there! Oscarathon 2019 heads toward a big moment, as the Oscar nominees will finally be revealed on January 22nd. You can see my most recent thoughts about things so far here, but now I will offer my predictions for all of the nominations, with a bit more analysis where I think there is enough information to warrant it. In general, I will offer more in-depth looks at things once I have some actual nominations to work with and present that in the upcoming megathreads.
Best Picture
This has been an unpredictable awards season so far from a purely objective perspective, but it has also been profoundly disappointing. Green Book is more or less the frontrunner after the PGA Awards decided to just be as ridiculous as the Golden Globes–and in a year with huge number of nuanced films about race and prejudice in America, so far the major awards shows have decided to award the film that is basically the reverse of Driving Miss Daisy because it makes white people feel better about racism or something (and I don’t care how much you say it only matters that it is a good film, Kareem Abdul-Jabaar). This is hugely disappointing, especially when coupled with the fact that one of the main contenders to beat this film right now is Bohemian Rhapsody, which has its own issues: being directed by Bryan Singer, more or less fucking up Freddie Mercury’s sexuality, and just not being a well-made movie, but these rants are for another time (and trust me, there will be more ranting). For now, this is just about what is getting nominated, and if nothing else, these two are definitely in.
Meanwhile, as I have stated in the past, there have been six other movies that have more or less stood out compared to everything else. The first is Roma, which has managed to carve itself out a really strong foothold in this race, and legitimately could be the first foreign language film to ever win Best Picture. If nothing else it is getting a high number of nominations. After that, the rest of the locked in films are A Star Is Born, The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Vice, and If Beale Street Could Talk. Those films have gotten most of the attention this awards season, and it would be a pretty massive surprise if any were left out.
Some might argue that If Beale Street Could Talk has seemed a bit vulnerable lately, but the way the Best Picture nominations works really benefits this movie, as this is definitely a movie that has a passionate support system that will absolutely say it is the best film of the year. That is what matters for Best Picture nominations, and is what allowed Phantom Thread to get a nomination last year. Combine that with having favorites in both Supporting Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay, and it is likely getting a nomination.
So the only real vulnerable film on this list is Vice because it might have a hard time finding the support it needs to get nominated… but that seems very unlikely, considering how strong a contender it will probably be in the acting, writing, and Directing categories. There is also a slight chance the Academy will stop losing their damn mind and realize that Bohemian Rhapsody outside of Rami Malek is not good, but let’s just say I highly doubt it.
So the question is, will there be a tenth movie that gets nominated? Maybe, but it really seems like a longshot. Except for the two years that ten nominations were required, there has never been enough support for ten movies to get nominated for Best Picture. It is bound to happen some year, but it feels like that year is one in which there are like 12 highly acclaimed movies competing for ten spots and not this year, where there are nine clear cut movies, and then a huge list of other movies that may have pockets of support but likely not enough support to get them there. Still, here is the list to look at.
Mary Poppins Returns
First Reformed
First Man
Crazy Rich Asians
The Quiet Place
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Eighth Grade
All of these films, other than First Man and Can You Ever Forgive Me?, have gotten support as Best Picture from either the Golden Globes, AFI Top Ten Lists, and/or PGA nominations. Can You Ever Forgive Me?, meanwhile, could find itself gaining nominations in three of the major categories of Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay. That could make it hard to leave out. That is nothing, though, compared to First Man, which is likely to get a high number of nominations, as it could be a nominee in Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects, Original Score, and Supporting Actress. So as many as eight, and even if it was just, say, five, that is a huge number, and it is highly unusual for a film to get a significant amount of nominations without one of them being Best Picture.
So where does that leave us? Honestly, likely with no Best Picture nomination for any of these. None of them stand out enough, and it just doesn’t feel like any could stand out. First Man surprisingly profiles the best as a nominee, and the Academy does love Damien Chazelle, but it just feels like no one is talking about this movie, let alone championing it as the best picture of the year. So while I would likely at this point say this is the best bet for either being the tenth nominee or even to steal a spot from one of the top nine, I think the film will fall short and possibly end up being like Dream Girls by receiving a high number of nominations (in that film’s case, five), but no Best Picture nomination. If I had to pick some true wild cards, I would go with either Eighth Grade or Crazy Rich Asians, as Eighth Grade definitely has the little film that could vibe, and Crazy Rich Asians got a SAG nomination, which shows it has strong support from the biggest branch of the Academy.
Predicted Nominees (in order of most likely to least likely to get a nomination)
- Green Book
- Roma
- A Star Is Born
- The Favourite
- BlacKkKlansman
- Black Panther
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- Vice
Most Likely to Take a Spot or Earn the Mythical Tenth Spot: First Man
Wild Cards: Eighth Grade and Crazy Rich Asians
Other Contenders: Mary Poppins Returns, First Reformed, The Quiet Place, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Director
Until Green Book won the PGA this looked like a pretty tidy category. The DGA nominees rarely match completely match the Oscar nominees, so considering the bad press both Green Book and Peter Farrelly, in general, were getting, it seemed likely that he would be the person left out. Now, however, it is a little more chaotic, as it really feels like Yorgos Lanthimos should get a nomination for The Favourite, especially as he can’t get a consolation writing nod as he did with The Lobster, because he didn’t write this one. So who would get bumped for him? Definitely not Alfonso Cuarón, who might very well be heading towards getting his name on five nominations this year. Bradley Cooper is also impossible, because the Academy loves rewarding actors that move into directing. Spike Lee also seems impossible, even if BlacKkKlansman is trending in the wrong direction, because the Academy can’t be that fucked up (besides, Spike Lee clearly has to be front and center to lose once again to a movie about the friendship between a driver and chauffeur of different races, because this world is terrible).
That leaves Adam McKay for Vice, and this is tricky, because if I believe that Vice is getting a Best Picture nomination, a past nominee like McKay is likely not going to be left out. But ultimately The Favourite just feels like a much stronger Best Picture bet, so McKay looks like the odd man out. Though I will note that Farrelly may seem like a lock, but so too did Martin McDonagh last year, and he failed to get a nomination. It is possible that could happen again, and if it does, we could be given a hint that the Academy is not about to make the same mistakes others have made with Green Book. If you are looking for who could play spoiler in all this, the top choice is Barry Jenkins, who could definitely pull a nomination if the same thing that happened with Phantom Thread last year happens with Beale Street, and if you really want a sleeper, well, as previously stated, the Academy loves Damien Chazelle, and until the end of time Jenkins and Chazelle will be forever linked, so of course both of them this year have outside chances at nominations. Also, do not sleep on Pawel Pawlikowski, who will get a nomination for this category at some point.
Predicted Nominees:
- Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
- Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
- Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
- Peter Farrelly, Green Book
- Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Most Likely To Take a Spot: Adam McKay, Vice
Wild Card: Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Can’t Ignore Until Nominations Are Out: Damien Chazelle, First Man and Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Best Actress
I have already talked pretty extensively about the current three-way race we have for the top spot, so it is pretty obvious that Glenn Close, Lady Gaga, and Olivia Colman are locks for nominations, which leaves two spots between probably three actresses: Melissa McCarthy, Emily Blunt, and Yalitza Aparicio. There is a lot that could go into who gets picked here, but ultimately the cynical reason will stand out: when all things seem mostly equal, go with the two who are more well known. If a surprise comes, it would likely be from Viola Davis, because, well, she is Viola Davis.
Predicted Nominees:
- Glenn Close, The Wife
- Olivia Colman, The Favourite
- Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
- Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Next Up: Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Wild Card: Viola Davis, Widows
Best Actor
This category also has six deserving candidates for five spots. Three of these are easy, as Rami Malek, Christian Bale, and Bradley Cooper are coasting to nominations. Green Book‘s ascent has allowed Viggo Mortensen to more or less be assured of a nomination as well, so that leaves Ethan Hawke and John David Washington going after two spots. Hawke was once a frontrunner in this category and Washington has seemed certain as a nominee for some time, so it is a tough choice, but my cynicism is high, so I presume that Washington is getting the short end of this stick (plus Hawke is quite amazing). I really don’t see a way for anyone else to get a nomination, but if pushed to guess, I would say Willem Dafoe could sneak into that spot as well.
Predicted Nominees:
- Christian Bale, Vice
- Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
- Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
- Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
- Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Alternate Pick: John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Wild Cards: Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Best Supporting Actress
This may sound familiar, but there are four nominees that are pretty locked in at this point: Regina King, Rachel Weisz, Emma Stone, and Amy Adams. So once again it really comes down to one spot. Claire Foy and Margot Robbie seem like the likely choices in this case. Robbie has the higher pedigree and the SAG nomination Foy doesn’t, but Foy feels like she has more momentum, so I am going to go with her. There is also a small chance that if Emily Blunt fails to get a Lead Actress nomination she will get a nomination here to honor her great work from this year.
Predicted Nominees:
- Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
- Emma Stone, The Favourite
- Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
- Amy Adams, Vice
- Claire Foy, First Man
Alternate Pick: Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Wild Card: Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Best Supporting Actor
- This time we have seven actors for five spots, and only three that feel like total locks, in Mahershala Ali, Timothée Chalamet, and Adam Driver. Richard E. Grant is likely a nominee, but the fact that he is so lesser known compared to the other people on this list makes him vulnerable. Still, he has been nominated in enough places that he is likely in. That leaves one spot for Sam Elliott, Sam Rockwell, and Michael B. Jordan. Now, while Jordan would be the most interesting of that group, he probably has the lowest chance (though if he does get it, then look out for Black Panther, because that could be a sign it is in for a big night). So that leaves Elliott and Rockwell, which shouldn’t be much of a contest, as while Rockwell was solid, his presence in Vice is minimal, while Elliot is a vital part of A Star Is Born. So Elliott is the pick for now.
Predicted Nominees:
- Mahershala Ali, Green Book
- Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
- Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
- Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
- Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Next Up: Sam Rockwell, Vice
Wild Cards: Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Best Animated Film
And here it is, the category that always brings me so much pain. This year at least offers a ray of sunshine in the form of Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, which is looking like it’s going to be rare film that can break the Disney/Pixar stranglehold in this category. It is followed by Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs, which both are getting nominations without any real trouble. After that, it gets a little tricky, but it seems really hard to believe that Ralph Breaks the Internet is not getting nominated. Disney may not be supporting it in terms of getting the win on Oscar night, but it sure is in terms of getting it a nomination, plus it has been nominated every time more than three nominees are allowed at an awards show.
So really this all comes down to one spot, which seems likely to be a toss up between Mirai, and, sigh, The Grinch. Mirai picked up Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards nominations and is actually a good movie supported by indie darling studio GKids, while The Grinch got PGA and Critics’ Choice Awards nominations and is loved by children, who are actually the ones voting in this category because voters are lazy. This would trend in The Grinch‘s favor, but GKids is just really good at this kind of campaign, and they have done a good job getting director Mamoru Hosoda a lot of press to try and get this nomination. Ultimately, I am going with my heart over my head here, because I would rather be wrong than blatantly assume the Academy will get this wrong. The only other film to look out for is First Man, because it is an Aardman film and the Academy loves Aardman. Also, there is a lot of love for Ruben Brandt, Collector, and if this was a real category, there is a real chance both it and Mirai would get nominations.
Predicted Nominees:
- Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse
- Isle of Dogs
- Incredibles 2
- Ralph Wrecks the Internet
- Mirai
If This Was a Real Category, Next Best Bet: Ruben Brandt, Collector
Because This Is Likely a Joke Category: The Grinch
Wild Card: Early Man
Best Film Editing
This category is always so important in the overall Best Picture race, and this year many of the likely Best Picture nominees garnered Eddie Awards. That is one of the biggest reasons that Green Book can’t get too cozy yet, because it is going to have a tough time getting a nomination here (not impossible, just tough, so be warned). That’s also the reason that First Man may have even better chances than I have given it credit for in the Best Picture race, because it is almost certainly getting an Editing nomination. After that, it feels like we are heading to a historic night for Alfonso Cuarón, so Roma seems like a good bet as well. Then it is a little murkier, but it sure does feel like even if we escape Green Book here, we are instead getting Bohemian Rhapsody, which, considering how abysmal the editing in that movie is, would be a travesty, but I mean, this is where we are, I guess. So that likely leaves two spots that Best Picture contenders BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, A Star Is Born, and Vice are competing over. Vice feels like it needs this nomination or else it is hard to see how it gets a Best Picture nomination, so seeing as I think it will get that BP nom, in it goes here. As for that last spot, let’s just say my high cynicism more or less means I am going to pick the film without black in its name and leave it at that, but if I was favoring a different film it would be BlacKkKlansman, because Marvel meddles too much in the technical aspects of all its films, which makes the editing in their movies, even in Black Panther, feel boring and too similar to each other.
Predicted Nominees:
- Tom Cross, First Man
- Alfonso Cuarón, Adam Gough, Roma
- John Ottman, Bohemian Rhapsody
- Jay Cassidy, A Star Is Born
- Hank Corwin, Vice
Next Best Bet: Barry Alexander Brown, BlacKkKlansman
Wild Card: Patrick J. Don Vito, Green Book
From here on out, I am just going offer up picks and forgo any analysis; I’ll get into each of these more once I have actual nominations, as for the time being, I either don’t have enough information to offer up analysis that won’t become redundant when I write about the actual nominations or don’t have anything real new to offer that is worth writing.
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
- Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, and Nick Vallelonga, Green Book
- Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
- Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
- Adam McKay, Vice
- Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
Next Best Bet: Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Wild Card: Anthony McCarten, Peter Morgan, Bohemian Rhapsody (man, I really am cynical this year)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
- Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
- Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott, BlacKkKlansman
- Nicole Holofcener, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther
- Will Fetters, Bradley Cooper, Eric Roth, A Star Is Born
Next Best Bet: Peter Chiarelli, Adele Lim, Crazy Rich Asians
Wild Card: Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini, Leave No Trace
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
- Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
- Lukasz Zal, Cold War
- Robbie Ryan, The Favourite
- Linus Sandgren, First Man
- Matty Libatique, A Star Is Born
Next Best Bet: Rachel Morrison, Black Panther
Wild Card: James Laxton, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
- Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther
- Justin Hurwitz, First Man
- Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk
- Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs
- Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns
Next Best Bet: Terence Blanchard, BlacKkKlansman
Wild Card: Marco Beltrami, A Quiet Place
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
- Capernaum (Lebanon)
- Cold War (Poland)
- Burning (South Korea)
- Roma (Mexico)
- Shoplifters (Japan)
Next Best Bet: The Guilty (Denmark)
Wild Card: Ayka (Kazakhstani)
Best Documentary
Predicted Nominees:
- Minding the Gap
- Free Solo
- RGB
- Three Identical Strangers
- Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Next Best Bet: Shirkers
Wild Card: Dark Money
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
- “Shallow” (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt)
Performed by Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga - “All the Stars” (Black Panther, written by Kendrick Lamar, Al Shux, Sounwave, SZA and Anthony Tiffith)
Performed by Kendrick Lamar and SZA - “Girl in the Movies” (Dumplin’, written by Dolly Parton and Linda Perry)
Performed by Dolly Parton - “I’ll Fight” (RBG, written by Diane Warren)
Performed by Jennifer Hudson - “The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Mary Poppins Returns, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
Performed by Emily Blunt
Next Best Bet: “Revelation” from Boy Erased (Jon Thor Birgisson, Troye Sivan, Brett McLaughlin)
Wild Card: “Trip A Little Light Fantastic” (Mary Poppins Returns, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman) Performed by Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda
Best Production Design:
Predicted Nominees:
- Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart, Black Panther
- Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, The Favourite
- Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas, First Man
- John Myhre, Gordon Sim, Mary Poppins Returns
- Eugenio Caballero, Barbara Enriquez, Roma
Next Best Bet: Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Wild Card: Aaron Haye and Anna Lynch-Robinson, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
- Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
- Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther
- Sandy Powell, The Favourite
- Sandy Powell, Mary Poppins Returns
- Alexandra Byrne, Mary Queen of Scots
Next Best Bet: Julian Day, Bohemian Rhapsody
Wild Card: Marci Rodgers, BlacKkKlansman
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
- Kate Biscoe, Patricia DeHaney, Greg Cannom, and Chris Gallaher, Vice
- Joel Harlow, Camille Friend, and Ken Diaz, Black Panther
- Jan Sewell, Charlie Hounslow-Smith, and Rebecca Cole, Bohemian Rhapsody
Next Best Bet: Jenny Shircore, Mary Queen Of Scots
Wild Card: Goran Lundstrom and Pamela Goldammer, Border
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
- Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker, Black Panther
- Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan, First Man
- Ethan Van Der Ryn and Erik Aadahl, A Quiet Place
- John Warhurst, Bohemian Rhapsody
- Alan Robert Murray, A Star is Born
Next Best Bet: Sergio Díaz and Skip Lievsay, Roma
Wild Card: Renee Tondelli, Eugene Gearty, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
- Steve Boeddecker, Brandon Proctor, and Peter Devlin, Black Panther
- John Casali, Paul Massey, and Tim Cavagin, Bohemian Rhapsody
- Mary H. Ellis, Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, and Ai-Ling Lee, First Man
- Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, and José Antonio García, Roma
- Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, and Jason Ruder, A Star is Born
Next Best Bet: Michael Barosky and Brandon Proctor, A Quiet Place
Wild Card: Mike Prestwood Smith, Michael Keller, and Simon Hayes, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
- Dan Deleeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, and Dan Sudick, Avengers: Infinity War
- Geoffrey Baumann, Jesse James Chisholm, Craig Hammack, and Dan Sudick, Black Panther
- Paul Lambert, J.D. Schwalm, Ian Hunter, and Tristan Myles, First Man
- Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew Butler, and David Shirk, Ready Player One
- Matt Johnson, Steve Warner, Jim Capobianco, and Kyle McCulloch, Mary Poppins Returns
Next Best Bet: Solo: A Star Wars Story
Wild Card: Welcome to Marwen
Once again, it must be said that there is really no good way to look at the shorts categories before there are actual nominations, because watching shorts is rather difficult unless you just go to loads of festivals, and analysis of these categories doesn’t really begin in earnest until the nominations are announced. Outside of some of the animated shorts, I haven’t seen anything, and really just have the shortlists to work with. More so than any others, these predictions are simply my best guess, after looking over numerous predictions by more qualified people and discerning the best mix of their advice.
Best Animated Short
Predicted Nominees:
“Bao”
“Bird Karma”
“Bilby”
“Late Afternoon”
“Animal Behaviour
Next Best Bet: “Pepe le Morse”
Wild Card: “Age of Sail”
Best Documentary Short
Predicted Nominees:
“Zion”
“Period. End of Sentence.”
“End Game”
“Women of the Gulag”
“My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes”
Next Best Bet: ’63 Boycott
Wild Card: “LIFEBOAT”
Best Live Action Short
Predicted Nominees:
“Wale”
“Caroline”
“Detainment”
“Chuchotage”
“Fauve”
Next Best Bet: “Marguerite”
Wild Card: “Icare“
That’s it! We’ll see fairly shortly how well these predictions came out, and then it will finally be time to starting predicting winners instead of simply nominees!