The first real points of significance have now passed in this awards season: the Golden Globes have come and made complete fools of themselves, the Critics’ Choice Awards offered their own twists and turns, and a slew of important nominations across multiple guilds came out. The voting for Oscar nominations has been going on in full force, and on January 22nd we will see where everything ends up. Until then, here are the most important ways that recent events have affected the race in so far.
Best Picture
This race has the potential to be truly crazy, as it is entirely possible no film ends up winning more than one of the major awards before the Oscars (or at best, a film wins two of them). Likely this all comes down to the PGA Awards; if the PGAs go in a unique direction, we could have some serious chaos going forward. If not, well, the dream was fun while it lasted (even if the dream was built on Globes tomfoolery). Regardless of anything else, however, there are nine films at this point that seem to have the inside track on getting nominations. These nine fall into one of three categories: Rising, Falling, and Holding Steady.
Rising
Roma
Keep trekking, Roma, the road to history is long and hard.
- All in all, Roma has done the best out of all the Best Picture contenders. After dominating many of the individual Critics’ Awards, this film picked up Best Picture from the Critics’ Choice Awards. Add this to Roma doing about as well as it could have at the Golden Globes by winning Best Director and Best Foreign Film (as a reminder, Roma was ineligible for a Best Picture award at the Globes because it is not in English). Add in PGA, DGA, WGA, and Eddie nominations, too. This film isn’t ever leaving the conversation this awards season. In fact, if Roma was in English, it would likely be the definitive favorite at this point, but it isn’t, so it has a lot to overcome if it is actually going to win–namely the fact that no foreign film has ever won Best Picture (not to mention the absence of a SAG nomination). We won’t even get into what it means that the film is made by Netflix.
- The biggest thing Roma needed to do in the early going of this awards season was avoid any other film truly establishing itself as a favorite, and to win just enough to stay relevant. So far it is doing just that, and with its strong chance of winning Best Director and almost certain win for Best Foreign Film, Roma is in a very strong position that could lead to history come Oscar night. For now, though, a Best Picture nomination is all but guaranteed, and the big question is how many overall nominations can this film ultimately secure.
Bohemian Rhapsody
- No film has had a bigger boost from the first big shows than this one. Not only did this film shock everyone by winning Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes, Rami Malek went from being simply a likely nominee to a true frontrunner, which is definitely a plus for BoRhap. Now, there are some massive red flags here. The most obvious being that this film is still one directed by Bryan Singer. The studio certainly has done its best to ignore this fact, but although Singer left the film before it was finished and had to be replaced by Dexter Fletcher, it remains true that Singer has numerous legal issues right now for, well, being a garbage person. Then there is the fact that there are a lot of concerns about how Freddie Mercury’s sexuality was handled in the film. All this is on top of the fact that the critical consensus for the film is mixed at best if I am being nice, as well as numerous other historical red flags (hello, lack of a SAG nomination). All of this means this film is likely not to win Best Picture, but considering it was mostly at the periphery of the race before these past couple of weeks, and it is now at least momentarily mentioned as a favorite to win is a clear cut, major victory for this film.
Vice
- Vice really stormed into things after leading the pack with the Golden Globes with six nominations. Of course, it didn’t win anything other than Best Actor, but Vice is still riding a wave of momentum now that it looks like a strong bet for Writing, Directing, and even Editing nominations–plus Christian Bale is a strong contender for Best Actor, especially after his Critics’ Choice Awards win. All of this likely means this film has done enough to get a Best Picture nomination, which it was definitely not assured of when the awards season started.
Green Book
- Oh boy, here we go. This film has been yo-yoing all awards season, but it definitely got a huge boost after the Golden Globes, where it picked up wins in two highly competitive categories. This has thrust it back towards the front of the Oscar field, and given it a real chance to win Best Picture, because so many people find this film so likable, and also of course because it makes white people feel better about being racist, which are both strong pluses with the Academy… sigh… Anyhow… Green Book looks like a strong bet for both Best Director and Screenplay nominations, and even has a decent shot at an Editing nomination. This is the type of film that can really take off with voters, especially older ones, who tend to care a lot less about the noise surrounding a film if they find it enjoyable. Add in that those involved with the film are being very proactive in countering the backlash this film has and inevitably will continue to attract (including getting some very well-placed allies), and well, the film could easily find itself winning Best Picture by the time all of this is over.
Falling
BlacKkKlansman
- This has been a rough stretch for this film, that went from being considered by many as a frontrunner to win to one now likely heading towards a sizable number of nominations but no wins on Oscar night. There is still a lot going for this film, as it is likely still getting a Best Picture nomination, Spike Lee is likely heading toward his first Oscar nomination for directing plus another screenplay nomination, and both acting nominations still seem within reach, but it is just hard to see this film actually winning any of these categories with what has happened so far, so that is a clear downgrade for this film. Luckily, this race is still pretty wide open, so all of this could change, but things don’t look great for Klansman right now.
A Star Is Born
- Pretty much everything I have said about BlacKkKlansman could be said for A Star Is Born, but this film’s fall is much more surprising, considering it seemed to be the consensus top pick for so long. This film might also find itself heading towards a high number of nominations and few wins, but it does benefit from the fact that it is almost certainly going to win Best Song and is a strong contender for Best Actress. Plus, it still seems to have a fair amount of shine, despite its setbacks.
The Favourite
- The Golden Globes did not go as planned for this film. Green Book won in two categories that seemed definitively heading this film’s way, and even though it is right in the thick of things for Best Actress, it is going to be a tough race. The Critics’ Choice Awards also did not go as well as this film would have hoped, as it picked up just two wins (Best Ensemble and Best Comedy Actress) out of 14 nominations , and both felt like consolation prizes after losing Best Picture and Best Actress. For a film that had been building buzz and momentum, this was not a great string of events. Luckily, The Favourite still has BAFTA to lean on and is going to get nominations in a high number of places, but these losses are not helping this film overcome red flags like not getting a SAG or DGA nomination. So this film’s momentum is definitely heading in the wrong direction right now.
Green Book
- Yeah, so, for all the good, there has been a lot of bad, and it is enough that this film gets to be on both lists. The backlash to this film’s chance at winning Best Picture has been harsh, with a number of people immediately decrying that this is once again an example of Hollywood rewarding a film about racism that seems designed to make white people feel better. Comparisons to Driving Miss Daisy and Crash (2004) have not helped, because even though both won Best Picture, both are reviewed as major mistakes retrospectively. That doesn’t even get into the issue that Dr. Shirley’s family has many issues with this film’s veracity, or that the writer was proven to have made some rather blatant anti-Muslim statements (for transparency’s sake, it must be said that he did apologize for these comments) or that the director Peter Farrelly it turns out used to flash his junk as a joke to Cameron Diaz during the filming of There’s Something About Mary. All of this ultimately means it is questionable how much momentum this film was able to get from its two huge Golden Globes’ wins.
Holding Steady
Black Panther
If Beale Street Could Talk
Honestly, there is not much to say for either of these. Neither has done particularly well so far, but at the same time neither has lost anywhere they weren’t supposed to. Black Panther was likely always going to find its footing later in the season starting with the PGA Awards if it ever was to have a real chance at winning Best Picture, and Beale Street was likely to always be an edge contender, even if it is heading towards a win in Supporting Actress and a strong chance of winning for Best Adapted Screenplay. Now, both could probably use some momentum (especially Black Panther), but honestly, there is no reason to believe in the case of either film that anything that has happened so far would affect either of these films nomination-wise when it comes to Best Picture. Both of them seemed like strong Best Picture bets going into the season and that is still true.
It seems really hard to believe that any film could displace one of these nine at this point, so really everything after this point is fighting for the mythical tenth spot (since the rules change to the variable nominee format, ten nominees have never occurred). So it seems really unlikely that one of these could slip in, especially as it is possible even one of the top nine could fail to get nominated.
Mary Poppins Returns
First Reformed
First Man
Crazy Rich Asians
The Quiet Place
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Eighth Grade
- I mean, I could get into the ways these films have advantages over each other, but really there is not much separating them–except for First Man, which does not have nearly as many accolades as the rest, but is hanging around due to the pedigree of its director in Damien Chazelle, whose films have always been nominated for Best Picture, and a strong chance that this film will score nominations for Supporting Actress, Score, possibly Editing, and other technical awards. Overall, though, I could see a case for all of these films slipping into the tenth spot, with First Reformed and Eighth Grade grade likely still having the best chances. That said, it is kind of hard to have any real confidence that any of these films have enough love to secure the percentage of Best Picture votes needed to score a nomination.
Best Director
So the biggest thing to come from all of this is that Alfonso Cuarón is almost certainly going to win Best Director (for Roma) unless something really weird happens (which, well, is very possible with this category). Cuarón has been racking up accolades and he added both a Globe and Critics’ Choice Award to his collection. So at this point, everyone else is fighting for second place.
The DGA nominations, though, have given a strong indication of where the rest of the field is going, even if, as a reminder, the DGAs tend to do a poor job matching nominees with the Oscars–even if the Guild almost always agrees with the Oscars on who will win. Just last year, the DGAs nominated Martin McDonagh, while the Oscars instead gave that spot to Paul Thomas Anderson, so it is likely that at least one these spots will change Oscar time. But as of now, the best bets to secure the rest of the nomination spots are:
- Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
- Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
- Peter Farrelly, Green Book
- Adam McKay, Vice
So, who could challenge for those spots if someone gets knocked out of this field? Well, The Favourite‘s Yorgos Lanthimos stands out as the most obvious, as a famous director that is likely due for a nomination at some point, especially as the director of one of the films that still has a reasonable shot at a Best Picture win. Then there is Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk, because, well, he is Barry Jenkins, he is awesome, and everyone loves him. If we are being honest, those are probably the only real chances of anything changing, even if someone like Debra Granik getting in would be awesome–but one potential wrinkle could be Cold War‘s Paweł Pawlikowski, who scored a BAFTA nomination and is a very respected director. It is highly unlikely, but if you want a longshot that has an actual chance, there you go.
Best Actress
This has been a standout category for quite some time now, but this year could offer the intrigue of a three-woman race that could stay competitive until Oscar night itself. Lady Gaga and Olivia Colman are, not surprisingly, part of this trio, considering they have been the two frontrunners this whole season, but they have been joined by Glenn Close after Close picked up a win at the Golden Globes and tied with Gaga at the Critics’ Choice Awards. Now, this intrigue will likely dissipate by the time we get to the Oscars, as inevitably one of these ladies will start winning and emerge as a true favorite, but the mere fact that this might not be the case fits with an award season that could offer a higher degree of uncertainty than we normally get.
Best Actor
Way to storm to the top, Mr. Malek.
The biggest thing is the aforementioned rise of Rami Malek into frontrunner status, but he is going to continue to face a strong challenge from Christian Bale, who actually beat Malek at the Critics’ Choice Awards. Both are playing roles that the Academy tends to go crazy for, and it remains to be seen which of these two will gain the edge going forwards. Both still have to deal with Ethan Hawke, who had dominated the awards season before these past couple of weeks, and the lingering threat of Bradley Cooper, who is almost certainly getting a nomination. Hawke is likely to have lost too much momentum (so much so that honestly he could go from frontrunner to not even being nominated), and Cooper has found his momentum completely halted, but considering the twists and turns of things so far, it would be folly to count them out completely.
Best Supporting Actress
This race is similar to Best Director in that Regina King is almost certainly winning. She continued her winning ways at both the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards and seems pretty unstoppable right now. The only stumbling block is her weird exclusion from SAG. This could offer an opening to other women to gain some ground, but it seems unlikely, especially considering the two people that are of greatest threat to her, Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, are likely to split votes from each other. But maybe if SAG chooses to award one of them, it will allow everyone to put their support behind one of them going forward. These two are at least definitely getting a nomination, as is Amy Adams, who might offer the actual best chance of someone beating Regina King. No matter what, the SAG Awards are going to tell us which woman is the most likely non-King winner.
Best Supporting Actor
Umm, well, this may sound a bit familiar, but Mahershala Ali has likely secured himself another Oscar. He picked up his first Golden Globe (which doesn’t make up for picking Aaron Taylor-Johnson over him two years ago, Globes) and a Critics’ Choice Awards. Meanwhile, even with all of the negative press Green Book has gotten, none of it has reflected on Ali, of whom even the Shirley family is highly supportive. Add in his high profile turn on a resurgent True Detective, and this race is likely over, so that leaves questions over who could take those four spots fighting for second place. Timothée Chalamet, Adam Driver, Sam Elliott, Richard E. Grant, and Michael B. Jordan could have all of their names put into a hat, and just pull four out in any order and no one would be surprised which four would be picked–while also being annoyed at which of the five was not picked.
Best Original Screenplay
This category looked like it could have been rather tidy, if The Favourite had done as expected at the Golden Globes. Instead this category is kind of in chaos. Sure, Green Book won the Golden Globe, but until someone else makes that mistake, I am going to assume that was just the Globes being the Globes. First Reformed won the Critics Choice Award, but it is hard to tell at this point how much traction that film is going to get at the Oscars period, which makes it hard to favor it. This could allow Roma to step in and win, especially if the Oscars try and figure out how to award this film as much as possible without letting it win Best Picture. This category could literally end up with five nominees that could all win, in addition to being a strong competition between seven films for five spots, with Vice seeming like a solid bet and Eighth Grade and A Quiet Place in a position to gain nominations so that the Academy can find ways to honor these two critically acclaimed films.
Best Adapted Screenplay
This category is much tidier than the Original category. For one, it has a clear frontrunner in If Beale Street Could Talk, which picked up the Critics’ Choice Award, and is likely to use the pedigree of Barry Jenkins to pull out a win. After that, there is a number of Best Picture contenders that could fill out slots: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, and A Star is Born (even if A Star is Born has no business getting a screenplay nomination and Black Panther is a bit of a stretch), but none of them feel like real threats to Beale Street. Maybe BlacKkKlansman has a real chance of winning at this point, but that’s it. Honestly, with so many awards so far being combined Screenplay categories, we won’t have a real idea of what could happen until after the Scripter and WGA Awards.
Best Animated Feature
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I know, I am surprised too, but let’s ride this wave of momentum to victory.
Clearly, the biggest news from this category (especially to a certain editor on this blog), is that we have a clear frontrunner and it is not a Disney/Pixar movie… well, mostly. Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse picked up both the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, and now has trophies to add to being the most buzzed about animated film (and honestly maybe even film period, outside of Black Panther) of the year. It seems likely heading to an Oscar, but let’s be careful, because you can never count Disney/Pixar out. All of this should be more viewed as cautious optimism backed up by real facts, but not anything more than that. (Yes! Spider-Verse is definitely, absolutely winning! – Ed)
Otherwise, the biggest thing from this category is the rise of The Grinch, which after a Critics’ Choice Award nomination and a PGA nomination combined with the fact that kids are certainly going to love it could find itself sneaking into a nomination at the expense of… Mirai (this is why you can’t have nice things, Best Animated Feature category). That is not definite, but if nothing else, this year is going to prove how smaller films deal with the new voting rules in a year that is not as horrible for animation as last year was.
Best Foreign Film
Roma is going to win. Like, just book it now. Honestly, the only way it doesn’t is if it somehow doesn’t get nominated, which is not completely impossible, because this category is weird and will always be weird. I mean, other things will get nominated, but ¯\
I am a bit more behind than I have been in the past, so look for the rest of my thoughts when I write my more beefed up Oscar nomination prediction thread for all of the categories.