After some nice prelude awards, we are finally at the first real test of the awards season. I give the Golden Globes a lot of flak, but they have proven over the years to at the very least be a factor in driving the conversation of much of the awards season, and this year will likely be no different, especially considering how unsettled everything feels right now. So Oscarathon 2019 is continuing with my 2019 Golden Globes Prediction of ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
Film
Best Picture — Drama
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
- A Star Is Born feels like it is the presumptive favorite, but it really hasn’t won anything yet, so most of that is just based on the fact that everyone feels like this is the kind of movie that the Hollywood Foreign Press will pick, and honestly, I agree with that sentiment. Still, it should be said that any of these films could win, even Bohemian Rhapsody, which has a strange amount of love from the HFPA. So I am somewhat tepid about this pick, but just don’t have faith that the Globes will go in better directions, so A Star Is Born it is.
Best Picture — Comedy or Musical
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice
- This race likely comes down to The Favourite versus Vice. The Favourite appears to have more momentum and buzz, but Vice was the most nominated film from the Globes this year so it could really be either. Green Book could also pull this win off, but ultimately The Favourite is likely to get the win here.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
- This looks like Cooper’s to win, but he does face two other strong Oscar contenders in Malek and Washington. Malek probably has the better chance of those two to win over Cooper because of the HFPA’s aforementioned love of Bohemian Rhapsody, but it is hard to see Cooper not winning here.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
- Lady Gaga is currently one of the main favorites for the Oscar and her main competitor is not in this category so this seems like a pretty easy win for her. Both McCarthy and Close could offer a challenge, but really this should be one of the most guaranteed wins for A Star Is Born this entire night unless things get really weird.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
Christian Bale, Vice
Lin Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie
- This is a two-man race between Bale and Mortensen, but it is really hard to see the HFPA not awarding Bale here considering their great love for Vice, and this being the best place to award the film.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
- Colman is the other heavy favorite for the Oscar right now, so she should also take this category pretty easily, considering only Blunt is also a real threat for an Oscar nomination in this group. Still, if the Globes get weird and want to award someone shiny and new, Wu could sneak up on everyone and win this award, but this is Colman’s to lose.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
- This is a pretty strong group that anyone could win from, but the buzz right now seems to be going to Ali, and so he is the favorite even if Chalamet will offer a strong challenge. No matter what, whoever wins is likely to be the new favorite to win the Oscar from this category.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
- King has been dominating this award so far, and looks to continue at the Globes. With it likely true that Weisz and Stone will split any support they would get and Foy’s film not having the profile to win, Adams is likely the only real threat to King. If Vice ends up doing really well, Adams could use that momentum to pick up the win.
Best Director — Motion Picture
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
- Cuarón is a solid favorite for this award, and there is a good chance the Globes will look for as many ways as possible to award Roma considering it couldn’t nominate it for the Best Picture Drama Award due to it not being in English. McKay is lingering as a threat if Vice has a big night, as is Cooper if the Globes lose their damn mind and have A Star Is Born sweep through its nominations.
Best Screenplay — Motion Picture
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Adam McKay, Vice
Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Green Book
- Another category where every nominee could reasonably win. Likely, though, it will come down to narrative questions. If the HFPA wants to make a statement with either Vice or Roma, then either could win, but minus that, The Favourite looks once again like the heavy favorite in what could be a very good night for the movie.
Best Motion Picture — Animated
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
- While Globes are a bit more willing to nominate something that is not as expected, the winner is generally pretty boring. That is why normally I would just pick Incredibles 2 and move on, but see, there has been a reckoning, and that reckoning is Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. The Globes love to look like they are being hip and cool, so this feels like a perfect way to do so. Still, don’t be surprised if Incredibles 2 wins in the end.
Best Picture — Foreign Language
Capernaum
Girl
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
- Unless the Globes just really want to do something weird, this is Roma‘s award and we should just all move on.
Best Original Score — Motion Picture
Marco Beltrami, A Quiet Place
Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs
Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther
Justin Hurwitz, First Man
Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns
- This just really comes down to the fact that when a musical is as high profile as Mary Poppins Returns, it tends to win even if it is always iffy how much the songs should count with the score. Black Panther should offer a strong contest, considering how Marvel for once released the shackles on the kind of score allowed in its movies, and you can never count out Justin Hurwitz, but both will likely come up short.
Best Original Song — Motion Picture
“All the Stars,” Black Panther
“Girl in the Movies,” Dumplin’
“Requiem for a Private War,” A Private War
“Revelation,” Boy Erased
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
- This is another category where it is very hard to believe A Star Is Born is not heading towards an easy victory, but this is also an easy way for the Globes to reward Black Panther, which could prove to be too much for the Globes to resist. Similarly, the lure of giving a Globe to Dolly Parton could make “Girl in the Movies” a strong challenger.
Television
*Note*: my TV awards knowledge is always spotty compared to my movie knowledge, so these picks are going to be a lot less data driven and a lot more based on feel, other predictions, and knowledge of how the Globes has tended to work.
Best Television Series — Drama
The Americans (FX)
Bodyguard (Netflix)
Homecoming (Amazon)
Killing Eve (BBC America)
Pose (FX)
- While it falls in Globes tradition to pick something like Homecoming or the Bodyguard here, Killing Eve was the buzziest show of last year, and it is still plenty shiny and new enough to win this year.
Best Television Series — Musical or Comedy
Barry (HBO)
Kidding (Showtime)
The Good Place (NBC)
The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
- This is tough as Barry feels like the kind of new show that would generally win at the Globes, and The Kominsky Method has movie stars in TV projects, which the Globes always goes crazy for, but I just can’t shake the feeling that the Globes love The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and so it will win for the second straight year.
Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
The Alienist, TNT
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story, FX
Escape at Dannemora, Showtime
Sharp Objects, HBO
A Very English Scandal, Amazon
- This is tough, as this looks to be a showdown between Sharp Objects and The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story. Ultimately, the buzzier nature and pedigree of Sharp Objects makes it seem more likely to prevail. Though, if A Very English Scandal won so the HFPA could continue its love affair with British things (as well as the HFPA’s somewhat troubling affinity with Amazon), well, let’s just say I wouldn’t be surprised.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series — Drama
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Stephan James, Homecoming
Richard Madden, Bodyguard
Billy Porter, Pose
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
- Matthew Rhys already picked up an Emmy and now seems poised to also get a Globe, but don’t count out Madden, who is shiny, new, and British–three things the Globes absolutely love.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series — Drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Julia Roberts, Homecoming
Keri Russell, The Americans
- There are two ways of looking at this in terms of the fact that Sandra Oh is co-hosting this year’s Golden Globes: the HFPA will think it is a cool thing to have a host also win, or the hosting is a consolation prize for when Julia Roberts wins because the Globes love movie stars in TV. I am continuing my earlier trend of believing in Killing Eve, so Oh should get the win.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series — Musical or Comedy
Sacha Baron Cohen, Who Is America
Jim Carrey, Kidding
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
- Bill Hader probably should win, but the Globes will not be able to resist awarding Douglas for “slumming” in TV, unless they just decided to go full Globes and give this to Cohen so he can give some sort of terribly unfunny speech at the Globes.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series — Musical or Comedy
Kristen Bell, The Good Place
Candice Bergen, Murphy Brown
Alison Brie, Glow
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Debra Messing, Will & Grace
- I probably should pick Brosnahan, who is awesome and likely will win, but I can’t shake the fact that Bell represents the shiniest and newest person in this category, and I desperately want The Good Place to win something, so whatever, I am going for it (also, I fully acknowledge that Alison Brie could win for many of the same reasons I just said for Bell). Also, as a note, never count out Candice Bergen.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television
Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso
Daniel Bruhl, The Alienist
Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
- Unless the HFPA just really want to give a movie star this award, it is hard to see Criss losing for a role that got tons of praise and was one of the buzziest turns of the past year.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television
Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Connie Britton, Dirty John
Laura Dern, The Tale
Regina King, Seven Seconds
- This category could very well be the consolation prize award, where the loser of Adams and King’s clash for Supporting Actress is instead given a Globe here. Adams is more likely to lose to King in that regard, so she makes the most sense here, especially when combined with the fact that she has HBO fully behind her for this award.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Henry Winkler, Barry
- For the Globes not to reward Barry at all would be really weird, so this looks like the best place to get the new show some hardware, but if the Globes went with a movie star in Arkin or a strong newcomer in Culkin, it would not be shocking at all.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale
- Another showdown between Sharp Objects and The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story looks like it will go Sharp Objects‘ way. Don’t sleep on Strahovski, though, as the Globes loves to go off book in these supporting categories, and Strahovski would offer a shiny and new face for the HFPA to reward.
That’s it for my predictions. Tune in later for my live blog of the Globes and we can totally watch as I ignore how my predictions go, because nobody cares about the Golden Globes and we are all just watching to see celebrities get drunk.
-David