Oscarathon 2019: Opening Outlook

At the end of 2018, at least we can say that the year cleared the very low, low bar set by 2017. Which isn’t saying much, but after 2017 failed so miserably to clear the low bar of 2016, you take the wins you can get. Meanwhile,  things are finally starting to solidify for the 2019 Oscars, and thus it is time to kick off Oscarathon 2019. We are still early in the 2019 season, but we do have some real data points we can go off of for some early forecasts, in the form of nominations for the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and Critics’ Choice Awards, as well as some awards from various critic’s groups. So let’s take a look at where everything stands at this moment.

Best Picture

• Sometimes I feel like I am just repeating myself all the time during these things, but, well, the Best Picture race looks pretty wide open right now. I am sure that will change soon enough, as voters are lazy and afraid to be different, so once a consensus starts to form there is a good chance in a month this will be a three film race (if we are lucky). For now, let’s enjoy that there is a real possibility this year could breed chaos. Especially because, just like last year, this year is full of great movies whose real flaws stop any of them from truly standing out from the pack.
• Of course, that is not even considering the fact that every year as the Oscar voting block continues to get more diverse and different from prior years, the Best Picture race is likely to open up more and more. That doesn’t mean that something out of left field could win, but it means that a small film like Moonlight can sneak in and produce one of the greatest upsets of all time (at least from a predictive Oscar standpoint) or that The Shape of Water can be the first fantasy film since The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King to win Best Picture. Now, upon closer inspection, neither of these films truly break the Best Picture mould, as Moonlight, while small budget, is the kind of artistic movie that at least generally gets nominated for Best Picture, even if they don’t often win, and The Shape of Water is a love letter to old Hollywood, which fits with the Academy’s general desire to pat themselves on the back. Still, these films are small steps in the direction of the Oscars being willing to open up what kind of movie can actually win this award, and the battle between old and new voters is likely to continue this year, when there are so many different directions that this race could go.

Roma

• Let’s start here, because if any film has the most pedigree at this point, it’s Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma. This film has been racking up critic awards left and right, winning the Best Picture awards from the Los Angeles Critics Association, New York Film Circle, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Chicago Film Critics Association, San Francisco Film Critics Circle, and the Washington D.C. Critics (not all of these are necessarily as important as the others, but I just wanted to prove a point). In addition, Roma made the National Board of Reviews Top Ten list and got eight Critics’ Choice awards nominations and three Golden Globes nominations. It even got AFI’s Special Award used to acknowledge excellence outside of American films. So yeah, this film is doing quite well.
• All of this pretty much assures Roma of a nomination, but a win is going to be much harder to come by. No foreign film has ever been able to win Best Picture, and only eight have ever even gotten nominations. Could Roma be the first to break this trend? Maybe, but it is going to be difficult, as many are likely to feel it is enough to simply give it the Best Foreign Picture Oscar, and it is going to be hard to keep up when it couldn’t get nominated for the main Best Picture categories at the Golden Globes due to being a foreign film (and failed to get a SAG nomination, too). That is even before we get into the awkward relationship Netflix has with the Academy. Cuaron himself has a really strong chance in the Best Director race, but unless it gets a big haul in the Critics’ Choice Awards, this is likely the high point for this film from a Best Picture perspective. Look for Roma to be slowly eclipsed by other movies as this race heats up.

A Star is Born

• If this was, like, even five years ago, I think this would be a lot more of a sure thing to at worst be one of two movies that was likely to win (we’ll get to the other time-warp film in a bit). A Star is Born is a remake of a popular property that has a breakout performance by Lady Gaga and an impressive directorial debut by Bradley Cooper. It has yet to win a major award, but it is primed and ready with four SAG nominations, nine Critics Choice Awards nominations, and five Golden Globes nominations, so that could change really soon. Add in being the Top Ten pick for both AFI and the National Board of Review, and the fact that, you know, this film is actually good, and this movie has a really chance to make a splash. The one thing to note is that even though there has been three other versions of this movie, and all three have gotten Academy love, it has never actually been nominated for Best Picture, so this one would be the first. Still, this feels like the kind of movie that the Academy would love to give Best Picture to, because it will allow it to do what it does best: honoring Hollywood and awarding first-time directors that also happen to be popular actors.

The Favourite

• After years of making some of the most original, weird, and/or disturbing films out there, Yorgos Lanthimos decided he really wanted an Oscar, so he brought his most accessible film ever (don’t worry, it is still bizarre, just not by the standards of his other bonkers films): an English period piece full of queens, over the top costumes, scheming rivals, and Nicholas Hoult’s glorious wig. This film is anchored by three excellent performances from Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz, and is full of pretty costumes and all kind of opportunities for the Academy to give into its British inferiority complex. The Favourite garnered the most Critics Choice Awards nominations with 14, tied for the second most Golden Globes nominations with five, and got three SAG nominations. It made both AFI’s and the National Board of Reviews Top Ten lists, and even got a Best Picture win from the Atlanta Film Critics Circle, so this film is a very strong contender that has a good chance to sweep the Actress categories, win a Screenplay Oscar, and at least get a Best Director nomination. That is a strong resume that is only hindered by a lack of an Ensemble nomination from the SAG awards, which is not a good sign. But The Shape of Water overcame that last year, so it remains to be seen whether the SAG Ensemble nom still a good predictor of Best Picture winners or not.

BlacKkKlansman 

• Spike Lee is back in full force with a captivating tale about how far we still have yet to go in the battle against prejudice in America. He did so this time, however, with an inspiring tale tacked on that shows that cops aren’t always the worst (which is good, because, you know, most cops are in fact the best, although they should be more motivated to make sure those who are the worst don’t remain cops). A strong contender ever since its release, this film at least seems to be on its way to getting Spike Lee his first nomination for Best Director, but it also has real Best Picture aspirations. It got four Golden Globes nominations, three SAG nominations (including, most importantly, Best Ensemble), and four Critics Choice Awards nominations (that number is troublingly low, to be fair). It made both AFI’s and the National Board of Review’s lists, and is a strong contender for Directing, Adapted Screenplay, and both Actor Oscars. The political statement this film winning would make is also a point in its favor. So Klansman is in the thick of things right now, but just like everything else, it needs to start picking up some wins. (Other than Roma, which just needs to keep winning.)

Green Book

• And here is the other time-warp film, as in past Oscar world, it would have been just like the Academy in a year full of exceptionally strong black movies to award the one that primarily focuses on the friendship between a white man and a black man, especially when the white man is the main character. This type of weird, hedging politics has happened before, and is why Crash is a Best Picture winner. Some might argue the same is true of Driving Miss Daisy, but we all know that actually that was the Academy shrewdly rewarding a great horror film, and not some cynical ploy at looking like it was honoring diversity by picking a film that had nothing more to it than gasp a friendship between an old white lady and a black man.
• In current Oscar world, though, this film has a much harder path to victory, especially considering everyone has already spotted that this is the classic film the Academy would have reward in the past to act like it was being diverse. This means that Green Book has had to prove it can get past this cynicism, and to its credit it has been somewhat successful at this. It was declared the Best Picture by The National Board of Review (though as always, that is kind of a death sentence for Best Picture chances, but hey, at some point they have to be right again). It won the Audience Award at TIFF, and has picked up Critics’ Awards in Philadelphia, Austin, and New Orleans, and from the New York Online Critics. It also was on the AFI’s Top Ten list while picking up the second highest number of Golden Globes nominations with five, seven Critics Choice Awards nominations, and two SAG nominations. At this point, Green Book is the most accomplished and awarded film on the board other than Roma. It just feels like the Academy has ultimately moved past a film like this–especially when they can reward A Star is Born instead. As with BlacKkKlansman, it is going to be hard for Green Book to overcome a lack of SAG nomination for Best Ensemble, but this film is more of a two-man show anyhow, so that may not matter as much. Overall: count this film out at your own peril.

Vice

• Oh, Golden Globes! There you go again, trying to make yourself important. This time by giving Vice the most nominations of any film this year, with six. This is after Vice failed to make either the AFI or the National Board of Review’s Top Ten list. Combined with relatively little success in other early awards, that lack of list presence made it seem like Vice was drifting out of contention, but as always, the HFPA likes to make a statement, so those Globes noms are keeping Vice’s chances alive. It also garnered nine Critics’ Choice Awards and two SAG nominations (though not one for Best Ensemble), so it has some momentum now. Still, it likely needs to win at the Golden Globes for it to have a real chance of making noise going forward.

If there is a reckoning: Black Panther

• If you want a film that would represent a seismic shift in how we look at the Oscars, here you go. Black Panther landed on both the AFI and National Board of Reviews Top Ten lists, and landed three Golden Globes nominations, two SAG Awards nominations, and the second most Critics’ Choice Awards nominations this year with 12. Culturally, this film probably had the biggest impact of any this year, and a similar sentiment nearly led Get Out to winning last year. If nothing else, a nomination is likely, which would make it the first superhero movie to garner a nomination in this category, and represent Marvel breaking another barrier. This is likely to be the people’s choice to win, and Disney is going to do whatever it can to try and pull off a victory. Right now Black Panther has failed to win anything, though, so it can’t be considered more than a distant threat, especially considering the Academy’s history with superhero movies, but the film will have lots of opportunities to win a big award and gain momentum. If voters are given an excuse to let Black Panther win (like, say, winning the PGA award because it makes everyone’s top five list) they likely will take it.

Little film that could: Eighth Grade

• This film likely has little chance of actually winning, but it has proved popular enough with Top Ten honors from AFI and The National Board of Review to stick around throughout this race, and possibly score a nomination, especially considering it is going to be a top contender for Screenwriting and Best Actress nominations. If nothing else, Eighth Grade is worth keeping an eye on.

There are a few other movies worth looking out for. These seem to have at least a slight edge right now for nominations over the rest of the remaining contenders. All offer up strong contenders for the acting Oscars, so they could be the films that at the very least fill out the back end of the the nominations for Best Picture, while also having the potential to get really frisky if some award shows go their way–especially Bohemian Rhapsody and Mary Poppins Returns, because both could take Best Picture wins at the Globes.

• Bohemian Rhapsody
• First Reformed
• Mary Poppins Returns

Once again, the AFI Top Ten list is proving to be rather on point (or, the more cynical person might say, is setting the table for everyone to to simply focus on ten films) as I’ve covered all of it except for The Quiet Place, which at least gets a special mention now.

Also, you can’t entirely count out Crazy Rich Asians, as it did score the elusive SAG Ensemble nomination over more favored films, so that could ultimately mean something at the Oscars, at least nominations-wise. Still, the biggest takeaway from all of this is that this is a year full of really strong but in various ways flawed films, which makes it hard to peg anything as a top contender at this moment for actual empirical reasons, which is why early money would be on A Star is Born. This means that for once the Golden Globes really do mean something, and are going to offer a real data point about things to come. So congratulations, Golden Globes, your chance to be relevant has come again.

Best Director

Another year makes it clear how woefully inadequate the five spots for this category are. This year isn’t quite as stacked as past years, but even still, there is going to be a lot of outrage over some director that gets left out, who people will insist was robbed for a variety of reasons that will mostly be wrong. It is simply impossible to please everyone with so few spots, and the Academy generally just has to do the best it can (except in 2013, where somehow the fifth best director [at best] won, and the four that were likely better were not even nominated). In 2019 there seems to be three frontrunners followed by a jumbled mess of contenders.

Alfonso Cuaron

• This is your current frontrunner, and considering his Best Director pedigree, Cuaron himself has a much better chance to hold up than his film’s Best Picture chances. Cuaron has picked up five Best Director awards from critics in New York, Chicago, Toronto, Washington D.C., and Atlanta. He also picked up Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes nominations. Cuaron has the immense respect of his peers, and would continue the recent dominance of Mexican directors if he can ultimately win, as it would be the the fifth time in the last six years that a Mexican director won this award (admittedly one of those times was Cuaron himself already). This early frontrunner status doesn’t necessarily mean much, but that doesn’t change that he has earned it so far.

Spike Lee

• If nothing else, it seems almost certain that Lee is at least due for his first Oscar nomination. He already has Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes nominations, and more nominations are likely to come. He did get a win with the San Francisco Critics Circle, so he is also very much in the race to win as well, but unlike Cuaron with Roma, it is very likely Lee’s chance are going to be a lot more tied to how well BlacKkKlansman does overall if he is going to be able to win.

Bradley Cooper

• The Oscars do love their first-time directors who were previously famous actors, so if nothing else Cooper has that going for him. The thing he is, he does have more going for him. Namely, a win with the National Board of Review, and nominations from Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes. The fact that he directed what (at least currently) is probably the favorite for Best Picture is another mark in his favor. Like Lee, he seems if nothing else to be heading toward a nomination–unless he gets the Ben Affleck treatment.

Barry Jenkins

• After helming the film that led to one of the biggest upsets in history, Jenkins followed up with another gem. We may learn quite a bit about Jenkins’ standing in the directing world if he can pull off a nomination, but it is going to be hard without a Golden Globes nom. He does, however, have a Critics’ Choice nomination and a win with the Philadelphia Critics Circle–and as a past nominee, he cannot be counted out.

Adam McKay

• This was probably a much better bet than Vice‘s nomination for Best Picture before the Golden Globes decided to make Vice the most nominated film this year. McKay picked up a win with the Detroit Critics Society and has nominations from both the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. He is a past nominee and is generally well-liked, so there’s a lot going for him. If Vice can maintain its momentum from the Globes McKay is probably in line for another nomination. As with Jenkins, this year will tell us a lot about McKay’s standing with the other directors.

Debra Granik

• This is a real long shot, but she did get a win with the Los Angeles Critics Association, so she gets a mention here for her work directing Leave No Trace. Honestly, she almost deserves a nomination, purely because for some reason it took her eight Goddamn years to be allowed to make another movie again after Winter’s Bone, which is just nuts. I don’t want to get to into this, but it is hard not to see some bullshit sexism happening here, because if a man had directed Winter’s Bone he would probably have been helming a Marvel movie a year later. (Granik is frank that she’s had trouble finding financing, and how in that eight year period she only managed to make one small documentary in 2014, despite, you know, helping catapult Jennifer Lawrence to stardom.) So even though Granik is almost certainly not getting nominated, she is basically the only real chance a woman has for getting nominated for Best Director this year. Be prepared now for a lot of hand wringing over the all-male slate of nominees that is almost certainly heading our way.

Those six potentials are the people who have won recognition already; they are joined by these Golden Globes and/ or Critics’ Choice nominees:

• Peter Farrelly (for Green Book) has yet to win anything, but scored both nominations.
• Yorgos Lanthimos (for The Favourite) just got a Critics’ Choice nomination, but the profile for The Favourite has been rising, so his chances for an Oscar nomination are likely going up, too, especially if he and/ or the film start winning. Plus, this time he did not actually write the screenplay for his movie, so this is the only way the Academy will be able to honor him specifically for the film, while also freeing him from the at times weirdly contentious relationship the Academy has with writer/directors.
• Damien Chazelle (for First Man) also only has a Critics’ Choice nom, but he is a past Best Director Oscar winner, and that could carry quite a bit of weight when push comes to shove.

And then there is Ryan Coogler (Black Panther), who directed the most socially relevant film from this year. That worked out well for Jordan Peele last year, and a lot of people feel like Coogler was robbed nominations-wise for his work on Creed (I am not one of those people, just to be honest, but I understand the sentiment). If Black Panther makes the run at Best Picture that it is positioned to potentially make, it is very likely Coogler will come along as well, even if the Marvel machine hamstrung many of his directorial choices for that movie. Like everyone on this list other than Cuaron, Lee, and Cooper, it is likely that Coogler’s chances will ultimately be tied to how well his film does throughout this awards season.

Best Actress

This category continues to have a number of strong contenders. There are a couple so far that have somewhat stood out, but it is still very early, and there is plenty of time for other contenders to start picking up wins and take control of this race.

Olivia Colman

• Winner of three Critics awards from Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Toronto; plus she has the superfecta of important nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, SAG Awards, and Satellite Awards. She would be a favorite, if not for two things. The first is that calling this a lead performance is a stretch, but I guess when you have three co-leads in a movie someone has to be given top billing for awards purposes, and, well, she did play the queen. The second reason, though is…

Lady GaGa

• That’s right, this is your other frontrunner, and she also owns the superfecta of nominations. She also has two wins from the National Board of Review and the Washington D.C. Critics. Add in that she is part of the actual Best Picture frontrunner at this very moment, and that makes Stefani Germanotta at worst the co-frontrunner.

Those two are the frontrunners, and the only two where it would be an absolute shock if they didn’t get an Oscar nomination at this point. After them, there is a deep crop of actresses that have won an award or gotten important nominations or both, but none have done it enough to definitely be in the same place as the above two. These fall into two groups.

Group 1 (some combination of these women would be the best bets for the other three nomination spots)

Toni Collette

• Collette has the most wins of this group, with wins from both the Chicago and Detroit Critics (plus she was runner-up with the New York Film Circle). She also has a Critics’ Choice Award, but she did not get either a SAG or Golden Globes nomination. Also, the Academy generally looks down upon horror movies. (Until I am given more data, I am going to assume Get Out was simply an exception to this for reasons of cultural significance).

Yalitza Aparicio

• The star of Roma ultimately may find her fate tied to how willing the Oscar is to give a Foreign Film a huge number of Oscar nominations, but she does have both Critics’ Choice and Satellite Award nominations, and even if only briefly, her film is the current frontrunner, at least in terms of acclaim.

Emily Blunt

• No wins yet, but a superfecta of nominations from SAG, the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards, and the Satellite Awards plus being a part of a film with at the very least good Best Picture odds leaves Blunt in a decent position for a nomination. Especially when factored in that she was also in The Quiet Place, another of the more acclaimed films of the year.

Glenn Close

• Just like Blunt, Close has no wins, but has the superfecta of important nominations, and, you know, is Glenn Close, so chances are high for a nomination.

Melissa McCarthy

• Oh look, another actress with a superfecta of important nominations, plus she won Best Actress with the San Francisco Critics Circle.

Viola Davis

• She only has one win, from the Philadelphia Critics Circle, but she is Viola Davis, so simply for that fact, she will get special consideration, even if Widows has failed to do as well critically as one would have expected. Having a Satellite Award nomination doesn’t hurt either.

Group 2 (these women are the dark horses for this category, but all could get nominations ultimately, depending on a number of factors, so they will just get listed briefly along with any current accolades they have)

Rosamund Pike

• Golden Globes and Satellite nominations.

Regina Hall

• No other nominations, but she did win the New York Film Critics Circle award.

Nicole Kidman

• Golden Globes and Satellite nominations.

Constance Wu

• Golden Globes and Satellite nominations.

Elsie Fisher

• Golden Globes and Satellite nominations.

Charlize Theron

• Golden Globes nomination.

Best Actor

This category has had its ups and downs over the years, but this year seems to have a strong crop of contenders that have mostly been pared down to six men competing for five spots, and even then, three of those spots seem rather secure.

Ethan Hawke 

• Hawke should be an overwhelming favorite right now, with wins from the National Board of Review and from the critics in Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, and Toronto. He also has nominations from SAG, the Critics’ Choice Awards, and the Satellite Awards, and his film, First Reformed, has a shot at multiple other Oscar nominations, including Best Picture. This all means he is almost assuredly getting a nomination, but missing a Golden Globes nomination is going to hurt him, because it will allow the first major award of the season to go to someone else, and lately the voters have had some trouble going their own way for different awards. Losing ground here could be all it takes to cost him the Oscar.

Bradley Cooper

• If not for Hawke’s numerous wins, Cooper would be the favorite, because, well, everything associated with A Star is Born is more or less the favorite or near favorite. Still, Cooper has only won from the critics in Washington D.C. so far. He does have the superfecta of nominations, and most importantly, unlike Hawke, he can win a Golden Globe and take much of the momentum Hawke has built up, so there is a very good chance that he emerges as co-favorite at worst after the Globes this Sunday.

Christian Bale 

• This is the one place where how Vice does this season in the Best Picture race feels irrelevant. Bale has a win with the Philadelphia Critics Circle and nominations from SAG, the Golden Globes, and Critics’ Choice Awards. Plus he is a former winner and this is an extremely buzzy role that is unlikely to be ignored by the Academy.

John David Washington

• Washington’s nomination for BlacKkKlansman seemed like a lock until he failed to get a Critics’ Choice Awards nomination. Washington did get SAG, Golden Globes, and Satellite nominations, so he is likely going to get the Oscar nom, but he is not quite the lock the people listed above him are, and the two other people he is competing against actually did get all four major nominations so far.

Rami Malek 
Viggo Mortensen 

• Both of these have the superfecta of nominations, so they both look strong. Malek has the buzzier role, but a less well-liked movie (Bohemian Rhapsody), while Mortensen (Green Book) feels like he is being forgotten when compared to the others. Still, both are looking strong right now, and both have chances to win Golden Globes, which could change the complexion of this race entirely.

Dark Horse Contenders: 

Willem Dafoe
Ryan Gosling

• Dafoe has actually more important nominations with both a Golden Globe (for Drama!) and Critics’ Choice Award nomination, compared to Gosling just having one from the Critics’ Choice Awards, but Gosling’s film (First Man) has a much higher profile than Dafoe’s (At Eternity’s Gate), so they both rank about the same: possible, but unlikely nominees.

Super Dark Horse: Lin-Manuel Miranda

• This would be pretty crazy, but he does have nominations for both the Golden Globes and Satellite Awards. Albeit in the Comedy and/or Musical category for both. Still, if Mary Poppins Returns gets real Best Picture play this could be a possibility, if you squint.

Best Supporting Actress

If ever you want to see how quickly things change, just look at this category. Last year Laurie Metcalf seemed well on her way to a win and Allison Janney seemed like she would struggle for a nomination. Instead Janney swept every major award. This year has a similar dominant favorite, but will history repeat itself? Seven women are vying for five spots.

Regina King

• King has been dominant, winning from the National Board of Review and from the critics of Detroit, Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Toronto, and Washington, D.C for If Beale Street Could Talk. She also got a nomination from the three major award shows so far, with the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and Satellite Awards. If she can win the Golden Globe, she can shift to full-blown mega-favorite, but if she loses, she may just go the way of Metcalfe, especially because King was inexplicably not nominated by SAG, which leaves her vulnerable.

Rachel Weisz/ Emma Stone

• It makes sense that these two are on the same line, as they are basically co-leads in The Favourite along with Olivia Colman (who submitted as lead). They have both managed the superfecta of important nominations, and were the only two to do so. Stone may have a slight edge, as she is actually the only woman to beat King so far, with the Atlanta Critics Circle (well, the only one that will be in this category, as Olivia Colman won with the Chicago Critics Association), but that is not enough to act as if that gives Stone a real edge. It seems like both of them will get nominations, but I imagine both of them being there will pretty much eliminate any chance of either winning, as they will split votes. 

These next four are likely fighting for the other two spots.

Amy Adams

• Adams would almost be a near lock, if not for her own history of being overlooked, along with it being unclear how much legs Vice has this awards season after the Golden Globes. She only managed three major nominations, but they were the most important ones: SAG, Critics’ Choice, and Golden Globes. Adams is likely best positioned to beat King simply because she will not be splitting votes with anyone, like Weisz and Stone will be.

Really, Adams is a solid bet, so it may very well be that there is actually just one spot left between three women with similar resumes.

Claire Foy

• Likely the favorite for this spot, as she got SAG, Satellite, and Critics’ Choice Awards nominations, but the lack of buzz for First Man may ultimately cost her.

Margot Robbie

• Robbie has two major nominations with SAG and the Satellite Awards for Mary Queen of Scots, so she is positioned for a nomination and has the support of the actors branch of the Academy, but she feels like she is lagging behind.

Nicole Kidman

• A previous Oscar winner, Kidman has two nominations from the Satellite Awards and Critics Choice Awards for Boy Erased, which are probably the least important of the four precursor awards, but she is Nicole Kidman, and cannot be counted out.

Super Stealth Contender: Emily Blunt

• Blunt picked up a surprise nomination for The Quiet Place from SAG, and that gives her just a bit of life. She is more likely to get a Best Actress nomination, but if she fails there she might be slotted here as a reward for both of her performances in 2018. It feels unlikely, but SAG shows there would be support for such an action.

Best Supporting Actor

Just like Best Supporting Actress, this category can be tricky. Last year at this time it looked like Willem Dafoe was heading toward his first Oscar, only for it to instead be taken by Sam Rockwell. This year, the field is quite crowded, with eight actors having a good claim to a nomination and a ninth having a long shot chance. All of these actors could win, however, and it is very likely that whoever wins the Globes will break this longjam and allow a real favorite to emerge.

Mahershala Ali

• A past winner, Ali looks primed for another potential win, this time for Green Book. He has only won one award so far, from the Washington D.C. Critics Association, but he has the superfecta of nominations from the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics’ Choice Awards, and Satellite Awards.

Timothee Chalamet

• No wins, but the superfecta of nominations is in his favor. He is still a bit young to win based on Oscar history, even in the supporting category, but being a previous nominee can only help him. Add in that this category historically doesn’t need to go to a Best Picture contender, and Chalomet has a strong chance to be recognized for his work in Beautiful Boy.

Adam Driver

• Pretty much insert what I said about Chalamet, except that Driver is older and has not been nominated before. Both of these factors may actually be in his favor–not to mention BlacKkKlansman‘s Best Picture chances.

Richard E. Grant

• Another actor with the superfecta of nominations, but also wins from the Chicago, Philadelphia, and New York critics. Honestly, if he was a bigger name as an actor he would likely be the favorite right now, for his performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but instead a nomination will likely be a victory for him.

Sam Elliott

• Elliott feels like he should be a bigger favorite than he is, but he only nabbed three nominations after being left out by the Golden Globes. He does have two wins with the Atlanta Critics Circle and the National Board of Review, and the fact that A Star is Born if nothing else is going to be considered a frontrunner this entire season means that Elliott missing a Globes nom is more like just a small hiccup. That said, this is a brutally competitive category, and he won’t be able to gain any momentum from the Globes, so we will see.

After this point, everyone is a bit more of a long shot, but still very possible.

Steven Yeun

• No major nominations, but wins with the Los Angeles and Toronto critics for his role in the acclaimed foreign film Burning. It seems unlikely that he can get a nomination, but he does have a real group of support, if nothing else.

Michael B. Jordan

• A fan favorite pick, Jordan only has a Critics’ Choice nomination, but if Black Panther is going to make a real run at Best Picture it is going to need at least a nomination for Jordan, so don’t be surprised if he sneaks in.

Hugh Grant

• This one is weird, because Paddington 2 came out in such a weird way that he was actually already nominated for awards last year at the BAFTAs, but would be eligible this year for everything else. He has no nominations or wins (instead just a runner-up with the Los Angeles Critics Association), but with his pedigree and the world’s love for Paddington 2 don’t count him out.

Then there is major, major long shot Josh Hamilton from Eighth Grade, who won with the Detroit Critics Society. He almost certainly will not get an Oscar nomination, but if Eighth Grade proves to have support to really be a power player this Oscar season, this shows a path for it to do so.

Best Original Screenplay

It feels likely that there are six films here (maybe seven, if I am being generous) competing for five spots. Considering how important a screenplay nomination has been for Best Picture chances this century, it is likely that whichever of these films get spots here will also garner Best Picture nominations.

The Favourite

• Winner of three critics awards from Atlanta, Toronto (well, tied for the win), and Washington D.C., as well as having the ever-important combined Golden Globes nomination and a Critics’ Choice Award nomination for Original Screenplay. The only question is, will the fact that Lanthimos is not the writer of this (instead it was written by Tony McNamara and Deborah Davis) going to hurt The Favourite in any way? Probably not, especially considering this film’s likely locked in Best Picture nomination status, but it is an interesting wrinkle to consider.

Roma

• Roma hasn’t pulled off any wins, but it did get both Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice nominations, and a nom here would be another way to reward Cuaron for this film. Assuming Roma continues toward a Best Picture nomination, it is likely heading to a nomination here as well.

First Reformed

• Not only a major contender for Best Actor, this film has pulled off five wins so far from the National Board of Review and the Chicago, New York, San Francisco, and Toronto critics groups (thus being the filmed that tied in Toronto with The Favourite). No Golden Globes nomination, but it did get a nom from the Critics’ Choice Awards, which splits its writing nominations into an Adapted and an Original category. It seems likely that First Reformed is getting a nomination, which really may mean that its chances at a Best Picture may be much higher than previously anticipated.

These next two literally have the same profile.

Vice

Green Book

• Both these films shared a win from the Detroit Critics Society, and both got Golden Globes screenplay and Best Picture nominations. Both have the profile to be Best Picture contenders. This gives them a leg up on other potential nominees, and likely means they, too, are heading toward nominations here and in the Best Picture category.

Eighth Grade

• Right now, this film is probably on the outside looking in, but it is also the one that could benefit from not being a Best Picture nominee, as that could encourage voters to get it in here in order to give some degree of recognition to a film that is very well-regarded. Eighth Grade also got a Critics’ Choice Award nomination, so it does have some data in its corner. 

There is also a slight chance that A Quiet Place could get a nomination here. Its screenplay got a Critics’ Choice nomination, and is also very well-regarded, so this may be the only realistic place to give it recognition.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Unlike last year, this category is more settled, with three films likely locks at this point. The other two spots are up for grabs from a number of interesting contenders.

If Beale Street Could Talk

• As a previous winner, Barry Jenkins already has one thing going for him, but add in a win with the National Board of Review and the Chicago Critics Association, plus being the only Adapted Screenplay to get a Golden Globes nomination, and of course, having a Critics’ Choice Awards nomination, and Jenkins may be on his way to a second win. At the very least, a nomination is assured at this point.

BlacKkKlansman

• Winner of the San Francisco Critics Circle Award for Adapted Screenplay, this film had looked like a strong contender until it failed to get a Golden Globes nomination. It did get a Critics’ Choice nomination, and still has plenty of Best Picture buzz, so a nomination is very, very likely, but it has definitely fallen behind Beale Street at this point.

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

• This is the dark horse contender to win, as it likely is not getting a Best Picture nomination, but it has wins with the Los Angeles and Washington D.C. critics, as well as a Critics’ Choice Award nomination, so it has a very good chance at getting a nomination, and maybe even a chance at winning.

After these three, there are a number of films that could pull off a nomination. I will only list the more likely ones.

Black Panther

A Star is Born

First Man

• All three of these have Critics’ Choice Awards nominations, and each could get a nomination here. Black Panther and A Star is Born likely have the upper hand, because they are both strong contenders for Best Picture, but each have their own problems–namely, that Black Panther is a Marvel script, and A Star is Born is not really a script at all. First Man, meanwhile, is on the periphery of the Best Picture race, so it may not have the juice to pull off this screenplay nomination.

Out There Choice

The Hate U Give

• This won with the Philadelphia Critics Circle, and if you want a a really out there choice, this is it. This movie is timely as hell, and a nomination could offer a chance for the Academy to make a political statement, which it loves to do.

Best Animated Film

After the travesty that was last year’s nominations, something that forces me to forever say things like “Academy Award-nominated The Boss Baby” and “Academy Award-nominated Ferdinand” (kill me please), 2018 was a welcome return to form for the medium of animation (even if it still wasn’t particularly close to the stunningly amazing 2016 class of features). Hell, maybe this year something not made by Disney could eve–yeah, I am not even going to bother finishing that sentence. But we can dream, I guess. Still, there seems to be five films that have emerged as early favorites, even if my faith in the Animated voting block is so low that they will certainly mess this up when the time comes.

Incredibles 2

• Blah, blah, blah, Disney and/or Pixar blah, blah, blah, why do they even have this category? I could go into nominations from the season so far, but honestly, it is a Pixar film. Nobody cares that its script is completely broken, so let’s all agree it is likely to get nominated and will probably win and just move on with our lives. Oh, I guess I should note that when it gets nominated, it will only be the only Disney/Pixar sequel to get nominated here other than Toy Story 3.

Ralph Breaks The Internet

• Literally just insert what I said above, as it all applies here. The only difference is that the first Wreck-It Ralph did not win an Oscar, while the first Incredibles did. Maybe that will matter in the end, but honestly, I no longer really care to talk about Disney or Pixar movies, even if this one did do a really good job of showing how adult friendships have to change and grow in order to survive… but yeah, whatever, I’m done.

Mirai

• Now here is something worth talking about, as this is actually the best animated film of the year (by a somewhat small margin, but still). If you have read this blog for long, you will know I am a huge fan of Mamoru Hosoda, so of course I would be a huge fan of this film. While not his best film (hello, Wolf Children), this is his best chance at getting an Oscar nomination, because GKids thankfully is its distributor (good riddance, Funimation–at least you can’t ruin another movie’s chances *cough* Your Name *cough* Wolf Children *cough*), and GKids knows exactly how to get nominations. It also helps that there is no Studio Ghibli film this year, so voters might just think Mirai is one anyhow, since they only seem to notice Japanese movies when they are made by Studio Ghibli. Still, noms from the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and even the Satellite Awards seems to put this film in a good position to get the nomination it so richly deserves. (Yes, I am prepared to be failed miserably by the Academy, but let me just have hope for now.)

Isle of Dogs

• Wes Anderson is back with another animated film that comes with its own issues of, umm, cultural issues, I guess is the best way to say it? But a very good movie nonetheless. It likely will secure an Oscar nomination in the end, as it has so far garnered Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, and Satellite nominations, combined with it being a Wes Anderson film. Add in three wins from Atlanta, Toronto, and Washington D.C. critics, and this is a strong contender.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

• And here it is, the dopest film of the year. This is the one shining hope to end the Disney/Pixar monopoly (even if it is Disney-adjacent, with it being a Marvel film, but whatever, I will take anything at this point). Spider-Verse has the three nominations the previous films on my list had, plus five wins from critics in Chicago, Detroit, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York. It has become a bit of a cultural phenomenon and is certain to get a nomination at this point, because all the voters’ kids love this movie. Assuming that happens, it could very well win, and that is something it would be worthy of (I have some issues with the script and pacing that make it place slightly behind Mirai, but that just my personal preference) because this film is dope as hell.

Films most likely to steal Mirai’s nomination

• Ruben Brandt, Collector, if a different “indie” direction is taken for a film that has Satellite Award nomination.
• The Grinch, if the Academy just really doesn’t give a shit about credibility anymore. Which it doesn’t in this category, and considering The Grinch also got a Critics’ Choice nomination… sigh…

Best Foreign Film

Like, this is so Roma‘s race to lose that I almost don’t want to bother with the rest, but there are some really strong contenders this year that could give Roma a run for its money if, say, squabbles with Netflix make the Academy go in a different direction. 

Mexico, Roma

• There is not much to add. Roma dominated in this category as well, with nominations in all of the major awards as well as five wins on the critics side from Atlanta, Washington D.C., Philadelphia, Chicago, and San Francisco. Seeing as this film has a somewhat realistic shot of winning Best Picture overall, it would be almost impossible to fathom it losing this category, let alone somehow not getting nominated, but who knows? Weird shit happens in this category, so who is to say what will happen.

These three could offer worthy alternatives if things go south for Roma for whatever reason.

Japan, Shoplifters

• Co-winner from the Los Angeles Critics Association (which is weird, because Roma was not the other co-winner and Roma won Best Picture from this same group, so I have no idea what to do with that). Shoplifters also has Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice nominations, so it has a strong case for a nomination here. Also the fact that it won the Palme d’Or has to mean something.

Poland, Cold War

• Cold War has won two awards, from the National Board of Review (which obviously didn’t pick Roma as its Best Picture) and the New York Film Critics Circle, which did pick Roma, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. This film lacks a Golden Globes nomination, but it did get a Critics’ Choice nomination, making it another strong contender for the category. Also, director/co-writer Pawel Pawlikowski has already won one Academy Award for Poland, so that can only help him in at least getting a nomination for this film.

South Korea, Burning

• This is your other co-winner from the Los Angeles Critics Association. Like Cold War, it also lacks a Golden Globes nomination but does have a Critics’ Choice nomination, so this film could also be a sleeper if it gets nominated.

For reference, the other five shortlist films are as follows, and each at this point have a chance to not only get nominated, but win, because as always, this category can lead to strange results.

• Colombia, Birds of Passage
• Denmark, The Guilty
• Germany, Never Look Away
• Kazakhstan, Ayka
• Lebanon, Capernaum (no wins, but it did get both a Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice nomination)

---

Okay, that is it for now. Oscarathon 2019 is just getting started! The Golden Globes will shortly be here and make much of this information more or less useless, so looking forward to that. My Golden Globes predictions which will be up before the show.

-David