We are finally here. It’s time for the 2018 Oscars, and so, after months of writing words upon words upon words… here are my final predictions, with a brief explanation. You can get a more in-depth look at my thought process by looking at my Megathreads, which you can find here, here, here, and here. This year I am adding a Confidence Index that will tell you how sure I am about the prediction, and by extension how much you can trust it. The ratings will range from 1 to Coco–err, I mean, from 1 to 10, because there is no universe in which Coco doesn’t win.
It must be said that this is a truly strange year, as the Academy voting block seems at a crossroads. The old way of voting is slowly being replaced as the new voting block continues expanding. There is a chance that this could lead to one of the more shocking Oscar nights in a while, where the Academy goes its own way like it never has before. That is unlikely, but there is a definite chance that can’t be discounted or ignored, so if these predictions prove especially wrong this year you have been warned.
BEST PICTURE
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted Winner: Get Out (you know what, I am swinging big here, I would rather be wrong picking this than be wrong by not picking this)
Confidence Index: 3
Could Win: The Shape of Water or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Dark Horse: Lady Bird
Also a Dark Horse: Dunkirk (this year is weird)
Should Win: Call Me By Your Name
Not So Brief Thoughts:
This is one of the zaniest races we have ever had, and represents what should be the norm going forward, as the days of the Best Picture race being a cinch to guess are likely over. So I am just going to offer up the chances each Best Picture nominee has at this point. I am also going to offer up a best and worst (realistic) case scenario for each film to show the general degree of chaos and variance that this year’s Oscars could have.
Call Me By Your Name
- The entirety of this film’s case is that it is going to win a Screenplay Oscar, and also it is one of the buzziest films in the field. Still, this is an awful longshot, but there is a way that it could pull a Spotlight and win Best Picture with just one other win.
- Best Scenario: Two Oscars including Best Picture
- Worst Case: One Oscar
Darkest Hour
- This is a better film than it ought to be, but this film is batting way above its weight class. There is no way it wins.
- Best Scenario: Three Oscars (with a Best Cinematography surprise win)
- Worst Scenario: One Oscar
Dunkirk
- This one of the films with a legit chance of winning. It is a bit of long shot, but this is a wonky year, and considering it was at one time a favorite for Best Picture and has the pedigree of Christopher Nolan behind it, there is totally a way this film gets a Best Picture win. Unlike some other films, it probably needs to win quite a bit of its eight nominations to pull off the big win, but this is a very real possibility if it can get enough support as everyone’s second and third favorite movie.
- Best Scenario: Five Oscars including Best Picture
- Worst Scenario: One Oscar for one of the sound categories
Get Out
- Let’s get this out there: I don’t think this even close to being the best film of the year, but it is by far the most culturally significant, which may ultimately mean more. Like Lady Bird, this movie is universally loved. It’s a real aberration in terms of both its horror movie roots and the fact that it came out in February of last year and is still talked about (Black Panther took a lot of notes). So while I do not know how many ballots will have this at number one (though there will be a lot), it will rank high in almost all of them. This is the type of movie tailor-made for this voting system, and yet that shouldn’t be enough, as this film has basically won nothing this season. The thing is, the two films that would be favored above it are just too littered with holes, and so at this point, I think I am going to swing big. My confidence in this pick is super lower (not Documentary low, but low), but I think the Academy is ready to make another statement. A crowd pleaser like this winning is a way to make the Oscars relevant in a way they haven’t been in quite some time, especially after last year’s win for Moonlight. I always regretted being a bit too traditional in my pick two years ago, and this year I am going to be a bit adventurous.
- Best Scenario: Two Oscars including Best Picture
- Worst Scenario: Zero Oscars and a furious Twitterverse
Lady Bird
- This is another of the realistic long shots. Lady Bird‘s case comes down to the voting system at this point. This is probably the most universally liked film of the bunch (except for the people that suggest it might be plagiarized) so its win might come because the lowest most voters are willing to rank it is, like, third. This film has a lot of buzz, and if you need another example, just look at James England’s model for Oscar voting, which attempts to crowdsource its own ranking system. His system feels similar to the Oscar voting’s system, and Lady Bird is the model’s clear favorite. The key is that this model is one of the few that managed to pick the past two Best Picture races, which have been quite chaotic. Of course, that doesn’t mean Lady Bird is going to win, especially because it is likely not winning anywhere else either, but it definitely could be the first movie since Mutiny on the Bounty in 1935 to win only Best Picture on Oscar night, so don’t count it out.
- Best Scenario: Three Oscars including Best Picture
- Worst Scenario: Zero Oscars (which is sadly the most likely one)
Phantom Thread
- So if you want to know the super craziest thing that could happen at the Oscars, it is Phantom Thread winning Best Picture. The love for Paul Thomas Anderson got this film a nomination, and at some point he is going to have his Oscar night. That is likely not going to be this night, but… if you really want to do something weird with your choice– here you go.
- Best Scenario: Five Oscars including Best Picture
- Worst Scenario: Zero Oscars (the expected is one for Costumes)
The Post
- HAHAHAHAHA, The Post isn’t winning Best Picture. Let’s move along.
The Shape of Water
- I have stuck with this film through much of the race. It picked up wins at the Critics’ Choice Awards, PGAs, and DGAs. Guillermo del Toro is almost certain to win Best Director and is pretty universally loved. This film had stayed backlash free-ish until recently, give or take some bogus plagiarism claims, but this film just could never land that finishing blow, and just feels way too much like a film that at best is liked, but not loved. Still, when the DGA and PGA agree they have been right 16 out of 21 times on the Best Picture winner, and this movie is the perfect way to reward del Toro for both this and Pan’s Labyrinth. But the Academy has slowly been shifting away from the idea that Best Director and Best Picture need to match (thank God), so who knows how much that matters. More importantly, though, this is not the old Academy. The old Academy would have picked this film because it is a love letter to Hollywood, and that would get it the win, but it is unclear if the new members care about that. Last year showed that the new members pulled things in one way, and it remains to be seen if The Shape of Water will serve as a pull in the other direction. But the problem is that, in addition to lacking a SAG nomination, which shows a lack of faith from the biggest voting branch, the film just doesn’t feel like a favorite to win enough awards at this point. I have long thought that the over/under for this film winning Best Picture is five Oscars, but at this point, I only have the movie winning three comfortably, and even those cases have some holes. The Best Picture win would just bring its total to four, and yeah, that is possible, but for a film with 13 nominations, only four wins feels weird if it also is going to win Best Picture. All of this shows me that I have long been iffy on picking this movie, but have stuck with it out of stubbornness (and admittedly, data backing me up), but as we enter the home stretch, I just can’t stick with this film in the end, and instead am going with a massive “upset.” If I am wrong, though, that is fine, as a sci-fi film winning this category would be great for the genre.
- Best Scenario: Eight Oscars including Best Picture (it is possible)
- Worst Scenario: Two Oscars (this variance is ridiculous, but this is the year we are in)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- And here is the current betting favorite. The Golden Globes, SAG, and BAFTA winner has a strong chance of racking up three other major awards. This film has recovered from a rough middle part of the season to finish pretty strong, and many have this film now pegged to win, but there is just too much to overlook here. The lack of a Directing nomination is a killer to this film. Only four other movies have ever won without one, and the only one this film compares to is Driving Miss Daisy, and man, you don’t want that comparison, but it fits. This is the film that will look like a giant leap forward in recognition during the #MeToo movement, considering how well it nails its gender politics. The problem is that Three Billboards monumentally fails at its race politics. The old Academy might overlook this, because it would be so blinded by how well it handles one issue that it would ignore how bad the movie is in other places. The Oscars has a history of picking films that seem progressive without actually being so, or worse, which are actually harmful instead. That is how you get past winners like Driving Miss Daisy and Crash. Three Billboards is better than both of those movies, but like La La Land last year, the best thing that could happen to it is for it to lose and not be forced to defend itself for the rest of time. Ultimately, though, the real reason I can’t pick this film is because I just don’t see how it survives the preferential ballot system. This film is way too divisive, and unless it just gets an overwhelming number of first place votes, I think that that divisiveness is going to cost it. Ultimately, I am going to have a little faith in the Academy voting block on this, even though I know it could bite me in the ass. I don’t think this film wins, but if it does, I will not be in the least bit surprised, because I will remember that this the same group that nominated The Boss Baby for an Academy Award.
- Best Scenario: Four Oscars including Best Picture (this is also probably needed for it to actually win)
- Worst Scenario: One Oscar (basically just McDormand wins).
How I Would Have Ranked This Years Nominees if I Had a Ballot
- Call Me By Your Name
- Lady Bird
- The Shape of Water
- Dunkirk
- Phantom Thread
- Get Out
- The first six are all relatively close to each other, even if I have preferences. This is the line after which I will be annoyed if a film wins Best Picture, which is really at this point a way to show how Three Billboards went from being my second favorite on this list to off the cliff, because The Post and Darkest Hour shouldn’t be in this category at all.
- Three Billboards Outside, Ebbing Missouri
- Darkest Hour
- The Post
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Timothée Chalamet in CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Daniel Day-Lewis in PHANTOM THREAD
Daniel Kaluuya in GET OUT
Gary Oldman in DARKEST HOUR
Denzel Washington in ROMAN J. ISRAEL, ESQ.
Predicted Winner: Gary Oldman
Confidence Index: 9.5 (some of these numbers exist because there can only be one Coco in the 1 to Coco scale)
Could Win: Uhh… sure, Timothée Chalamet
Dark Horse: I guess, umm, Daniel Day-Lewis
Should Win: Ummm, you know what? Daniel Kaluuya
Brief Thoughts:
- Umm, like, Gary Oldman is winning this. In fact, all of these acting races lack a certain level of suspense. Oldman is quite good in his portrayal of Winston Churchill and the only way he is losing is if voters turned on him because of past allegations without really telling anyone, so if he loses it will be a monumental upset.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Sally Hawkins in THE SHAPE OF WATER
Frances McDormand in THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Margot Robbie in I, TONYA
Saoirse Ronan in LADY BIRD
Meryl Streep in THE POST
Predicted Winner: Frances McDormand
Confidence Index: 9.7
Could Win: Sally Hawkins
Dark Horse: Saoirse Ronan
Should Win: Close one, but Francis McDormand
Brief Thoughts:
- This is even more over than the Best Actor race. Even with a Three Billboards backlash, McDormand was never going to be affected. I guess there is some weird chance of The Shape of Water gaining such a groundswell that it carries Hawkins to a win, or Ronan being part of a bigger Lady Bird resurgence, but, umm, no.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Willem Dafoe in THE FLORIDA PROJECT
Woody Harrelson in THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Richard Jenkins in THE SHAPE OF WATER
Christopher Plummer in ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD
Sam Rockwell in THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Predicted Winner: Sam Rockwell
Confidence Index: 9
Could Win: Willem Dafoe
Dark Horse: Richard Jenkins
Should Win: Willem Dafoe
Brief Thoughts:
- This is a weird category that leads to weird results at times, but… this is Sam Rockwell’s to lose. The Three Billboards backlash is mostly centered on his character, so you would think that would hinder his ability to win eventually, except he just keeps winning. So at this point, there is nothing supporting him losing other than faith in the Academy voters and the support Willem Dafoe got early in the season. There are limits to how much I am willing to trust the Academy voters until they prove themselves to make decisions different than the hive mind for more than one year. So Rockwell is going to win here.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mary J. Blige in MUDBOUND
Allison Janney in I, TONYA
Lesley Manville in PHANTOM THREAD
Laurie Metcalf in LADY BIRD
Octavia Spencer in THE SHAPE OF WATER
Predicted Winner: Allison Janney
Confidence Index: 8.8
Could Win: Laurie Metcalfe
Dark Horse: Nope
Should Win: Laurie Metcalfe
Brief Thoughts:
- This is the closest of these categories, and it isn’t that close. But it really feels weird that Lady Bird looks like it is winning nothing. That combined with Laurie Metcalfe’s success early in the season offers a chance, but a small one. This is Allison Janney’s to lose, and that is not happening.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM (not a real category)
THE BOSS BABY Tom McGrath and Ramsey Naito
THE BREADWINNER Nora Twomey and Anthony Leo
COCO Lee Unkrich and Darla K. Anderson
FERDINAND Carlos Saldanha and Lori Forte
LOVING VINCENT Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, and Ivan Mactaggart
Predicted Winner: Coco
Confidence Index: Umm, Coco
Could Win: LOLOLOLOLOLOL
Dark Horse: HAHAHAHAHA
Should Win: Umm, I guess Coco, though Loving Vincent also works
Brief Thoughts: No
CINEMATOGRAPHY
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Roger A. Deakins
DARKEST HOUR Bruno Delbonnel
DUNKIRK Hoyte van Hoytema
MUDBOUND Rachel Morrison
THE SHAPE OF WATER Dan Laustsen
Predicted Winner: Blade Runner 2049
Confidence Index: If anyone but Deakins was in the pole position and had his precursor awards, 8, but because it is Deakins, like 6.5
If Deakins is robbed again: The Shape of Water
Dark Horse to rob Deakins: Mudbound
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Brief Thoughts:
- The key thing to remember here is that when voting in this category (and a lot of the more technical categories), the voters do not see the names of the cinematographers, but the movies themselves. This is a lot of the reason that it can take so long for people in this category to win. This is important in a number of areas in this case, because not all voters are going to realize that Deakins is even attached to a movie, let alone that he is yet to win (though likely he will have much more recognition than most). So Blade Runner 2049 is going to have to stand on its own merits, which it certainly can. Still, this is why a film like The Shape of Water could win. As could honestly either Dunkirk or Darkest Hour, but really the biggest unexpected threat might be Mudbound. Rachel Morrison being the first female nominee is a big deal, and along with her being behind the cinematography for Black Panther, she would be a very popular choice. Except once again, names aren’t on ballots and that will hurt her. As someone who might be a part of what could be a giant Black Panther wave come next Oscars, well, her time will come, just not this year. Instead, it is finally the time for Deakins.
COSTUME DESIGN
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST Jacqueline Durran
DARKEST HOUR Jacqueline Durran
PHANTOM THREAD Mark Bridges
THE SHAPE OF WATER Luis Sequeira
VICTORIA & ABDUL Consolata Boyle
Predicted Winner: Phantom Thread
Confidence Index: 8.8
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Dark Horse: Victoria & Abdul
Should Win: Beauty and the Beast
Brief Thoughts:
- The dresses aren’t quite as good as the ones in Beauty and the Beast and Victora & Abdul, but at this point it is impossible to think that the Academy will not pick a film that is literally about making pretty dresses. This is also the best chance to get Phantom Thread something. Still, don’t count out The Shape of Water here. This might end up being a category that tells us a lot, because if The Shape of Water does win, it could be a precursor to a big night for the film.
DIRECTING
DUNKIRK Christopher Nolan
GET OUT Jordan Peele
LADY BIRD Greta Gerwig
PHANTOM THREAD Paul Thomas Anderson
THE SHAPE OF WATER Guillermo del Toro
Predicted Winner: Guillermo Del Toro
Confidence Index: 8
Could Win: Christopher Nolan
Dark Horse: Jordan Peele
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Brief Thoughts:
- By all metrics this race should be over, and del Toro heading to his first Oscar. I think that is going to happen, but I hesitate to put as much confidence in this as the numbers could suggest, because I can literally see a case for all of these nominees to win. Nolan has been mostly ignored in this race outside of an AACTA win, but he is still Christopher Nolan. Jordan Peele has managed to win a Satellite Award and the Independent Spirit Award, so he has taken home some hardware. Gerwig could benefit from the desire to get as many women on stage as possible this year, as well as from the fact that Lady Bird feels like it should win somewhere. Then there is Paul Thomas Anderson, who is going to win one of these one day, and could totally do so here. That said, del Toro is beloved by everyone, and looks to be the sentimental choice, so he is going to take that trophy home. At this point the only person to ever do as well as del Toro and still lose is Ang Lee for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, so this would be a monumental upset.
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
ABACUS: SMALL ENOUGH TO JAIL Steve James, Mark Mitten and Julie Goldman
FACES PLACES Agnès Varda, JR, and Rosalie Varda
ICARUS Bryan Fogel and Dan Cogan
LAST MEN IN ALEPPO Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed and Søren Steen Jespersen
STRONG ISLAND Yance Ford and Joslyn Barnes
Predicted Winner: Faces Places
Confidence Index: …umm 0%? Maybe 3%? Ultimately, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
Could Win: Icarus
Also Could Win: Last Men In Aleppo
Dark Horse: Strong Island
Should Win: Last Men In Aleppo
Brief Thoughts:
- I have no bloody idea with this category. The nominees are weird (good, but weird) and outside of an Independent Spirit Award none have won anything of consequence. The only thing I can safely say is that while a good movie, Abacus is not winning. From there I would actually advise just pick the film you like best of the group, but for the hell of it, I’ll offer something for you. Strong Island has an outside shot, and would allow Hollywood to get a transgender male on the stage to accept the award and draw attention to Black Lives Matter, but this film has fallen behind the others too much to win at this point. Last Men In Aleppo probably should win this, and the Academy has awarded this subject matter before (last year in fact), but since then the attacks against the White Helmets have intensified. The smear campaign seems to be mostly bullshit, but it appears to have had an effect and has made the White Helmets “controversial.” In a race as tight as this one, these facts will ultimately cost it in the end. So that leaves two movies: Icarus and Faces Places. Icarus offers timeliness, considering the Winter Olympics just concluded, and would be a nice way to throw a middle finger up at Russia. Faces Places offers two things: Agnès Varda (and street artist JR can’t hurt) and being the one film that is not about a pressing social or political issue. Ultimately, I almost flipped a coin here, but I am going with Faces Places, because the Academy wants to get Varda on stage, and because of the continued growing pains between the new and old guard of the Academy. Still, like, seriously, everything I said was kind of bullshit, so just pick what you want. You will be happier that way even if you are wrong here.
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
EDITH+EDDIE Laura Checkoway and Thomas Lee Wright
HEAVEN IS A TRAFFIC JAM ON THE 405 Frank Stiefel
HEROIN(E) Elaine McMillion Sheldon and Kerrin Sheldon
KNIFE SKILLS Thomas Lennon
TRAFFIC STOP Kate Davis and David Heilbroner
Predicted Winner: Edith+Eddie
Confidence Index: 2
Could Win: Heaven Is A Traffic Jam on the 405
Dark Horse: Heroin(e)
Should Win: Heroin(e) (wooo, I have seen all of these)
Brief Thoughts:
- I have more faith in this pick than I do for Best Documentary, but that isn’t saying much. All these films could win, except for Knife Skills. Heroin(e) is the best film of the group and dealing with a timely issue, but may lack the singular appeal of the characters in the other films. Traffic Stop would allow for a Black Lives Matter moment on stage but is likely to fall behind at this juncture. That leaves Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 and Edith+Eddie. Both deal with specific subjects that do a great job of tugging at your heartstrings, but ultimately Edith+Eddie is just much better filmmaking than Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405, and that will make the difference.
FILM EDITING
BABY DRIVER Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos
DUNKIRK Lee Smith
I, TONYA Tatiana S. Riegel
THE SHAPE OF WATER Sidney Wolinsky
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Jon Gregory
Predicted Winner: Dunkirk
Confidence Index: 7
Could Win: Baby Driver
Dark Horse: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Baby Driver
Brief Thoughts:
- This award should easily go to Dunkirk, but two things give me pause. The first is the least likely, but still possible scenario where The Shape of Water wins here on its way to a huge night. The second and more likely of these scenarios is that Baby Driver does what it did at BAFTA and pulls off the upset. Baby Driver probably should win, but it has too much to overcome, not even counting the fact that this is best place to get Dunkirk a major award. So while confident in this pick, I am not nearly as confident as I would expect to be considering Dunkirk‘s pedigree in this category in terms of precursor awards.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A FANTASTIC WOMAN Chile
THE INSULT Lebanon
LOVELESS Russia
ON BODY AND SOUL Hungary
THE SQUARE Sweden
Predicted Winner: A Fantastic Woman
Confidence Index: 6
Could Win: The Square
Dark Horse: The Insult
Should Win: The Square
Brief Thoughts:
- The Square should win here, but Palm d’Or winners don’t do nearly as well in this category as they should (the last to win was Amour in 2013). Plus, the film is a bit too frenetic and honestly a bit too caustic to the artistic elite for the taste of many voters (which is silly, but sadly likely true). On Body and Soul and Loveless are safely write-offs, so that leaves The Insult and A Fantastic Woman. The lack of buzz The Insult has gotten compared to others leaves me kind of wondering if it is going to win because that is just the kind of thing that happens in this category, but A Fantastic Woman is so timely and offers a way to reward Daniela Vega (since a stacked Best Actress category left no room for her), so I am going with that one.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
DARKEST HOUR Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick
VICTORIA & ABDUL Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
WONDER Arjen Tuiten
Predicted Winner: Darkest Hour
Confidence Index: 8.5
Could Win: Wonder
Dark Horse: Victoria & Abdul
Should Win: Wonder (I guess)
Brief Thoughts:
- I mean, any of these films could win, but ultimately the makeup job on Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour is almost as impressive as his performance, and thus both are getting Oscars.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
DUNKIRK Hans Zimmer
PHANTOM THREAD Jonny Greenwood
THE SHAPE OF WATER Alexandre Desplat
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI John Williams
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Carter Burwell
Predicted Winner: The Shape of Water
Confidence Index: 9
Could Win: Phantom Thread
Dark Horse: Dunkirk
Should Win: The Shape of Water
Brief Thoughts:
- This is one of the surer things at this point, with only Jonny Greenwood and Phantom Thread offering a real chance at a spoiler, but this might be the surest award that The Shape of Water has going for it. If it loses here, it is going to be a long night for this film.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
Music and Lyric by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson
“Mystery Of Love” from CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Music and Lyric by Sufjan Stevens
Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“Stand Up For Something” from MARSHALL
Music by Diane Warren
Lyric by Lonnie R. Lynn and Diane Warren
“This Is Me” from THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
Music and Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
Predicted Winner: “Remember Me”
Confidence Index: 4
Could Win: “This is Me”
Dark Horse: “Stand Up for Something”
Should Win: “Mystery Of Love”
Brief Thoughts:
- This is a coin flip at this point between “Remember Me” and “This is Me.” I have long favored “This is Me,” but ultimately the fact that “Remember Me” is the very core of Coco has swayed me to its side. It is rare for animated films to win more than one Oscar certainly, but it has happened four times, and two of those times it involved this category (the others were Sound Editing for The Incredibles and Score for Up). The last time it happened with Frozen, the song was written by the same writers of “Remember Me,” so they have the pedigree to win this again, which they likely will. I am still not fully behind this, though, and the team behind “This is Me” have been on an amazing hot streak with both La La Land and Dear Evan Hanson, so if you want to go with them I fully understand. Meanwhile, if you want a long shot, “Stand Up for Something” is a way to finally get Diane Warren an Oscar, which cannot be discounted.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Production Design: Sarah Greenwood
Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
Production Design: Dennis Gassner
Set Decoration: Alessandra Querzola
Production Design: Sarah Greenwood
Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
Production Design: Nathan Crowley
Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
Production Design: Paul Denham Austerberry
Set Decoration: Shane Vieau and Jeffrey A. Melvin
Predicted Winner: The Shape of Water
Confidence Index: 8
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049
Dark Horse: Beauty and the Beast
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Brief Thoughts:
- This looked to be a much closer race, but The Shape of Water has pulled away lately and looks to be the big winner. Blade Runner 2049 could still pull out the win here, but it just doesn’t have the same momentum as The Shape of Water at this point.
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
DEAR BASKETBALL Glen Keane and Kobe Bryant
GARDEN PARTY Victor Caire and Gabriel Grapperon
LOU Dave Mullins and Dana Murray
NEGATIVE SPACE Max Porter and Ru Kuwahata
REVOLTING RHYMES Jakob Schuh and Jan Lachauer
Predicted Winner: Dear Basketball
Confidence Index: 5
Could Win: Garden Party
Dark Horse: Negative Space
Should Win: Garden Party
Brief Thoughts:
- It is hard to ever be really sure of anything in the short categories, but the star power of Kobe Bryant is likely too much to overcome and makes Dear Basketball a rather easier choice here than normal. That said, remember, this category is weird, so if you want an off-brand choice go with Garden Party or Negative Space.
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
DEKALB ELEMENTARY Reed Van Dyk
THE ELEVEN O’CLOCK Derin Seale and Josh Lawson
MY NEPHEW EMMETT Kevin Wilson, Jr.
THE SILENT CHILD Chris Overton and Rachel Shenton
WATU WOTE/ALL OF US Katja Benrath and Tobias Rosen
Predicted Winner: DeKalb Elementary
Confidence Index: 5
Could Win: The Silent Child
Dark Horse: The Eleven O’Clock
Should Win: Watu Wote/ All of Us
Brief Thoughts:
- This category can be hard to parse. Recent history would favor The Silent Child for being British or The Eleven O’Clock for being light hearted, but it is hard to see how voters don’t pick the film about a school shooting so close to the tragedy in Parkland, so go with DeKalb Elementary, even if it is actually not a good movie.
SOUND EDITING
BABY DRIVER Julian Slater
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Mark Mangini and Theo Green
DUNKIRK Richard King and Alex Gibson
THE SHAPE OF WATER Nathan Robitaille and Nelson Ferreira
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI Matthew Wood and Ren Klyce
Predicted Winner: Dunkirk
Confidence Index: 6.5
Could Win: Baby Driver
Dark Horse: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Baby Driver
Brief Thoughts:
- This is the wonkier of the two sound categories, as Blade Runner 2049‘s win at the Golden Reels really threw a wrench into things. Still, it is hard to believe the voting block knows enough about the difference in the two sound categories to not pick the same movie in both, especially when the likely winner is a popular and likely widely seen Best Picture nominee in the form of Dunkirk. If Dunkirk does fall, look for Baby Driver to win, or for an even bigger surprise in the form of The Shape of Water.
SOUND MIXING
BABY DRIVER Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin and Mary H. Ellis
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth
DUNKIRK Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo and Mark Weingarten
THE SHAPE OF WATER Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Glen Gauthier
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Stuart Wilson
Predicted Winner: Dunkirk
Confidence Index: 8.5
Could Win: Baby Driver
Dark Horse: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Dunkirk
Brief Thoughts:
- Of the two sound categories, this is the much stronger one for Dunkirk. If there is a split, this is the category it is still likely to win, so if you wanted to do a split, go with Dunkirk here. Baby Driver once again is a true threat to Dunkirk, but it will come up short here too. The other thing to consider is that if The Shape of Water pulls off a major haul, this is a place that it could rack up wins.
VISUAL EFFECTS
BLADE RUNNER 2049 John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert and Richard R. Hoover
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2 Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner and Dan Sudick
KONG: SKULL ISLAND Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza and Mike Meinardus
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould
WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist
Predicted Winner: War For The Planet Of The Apes
Confidence Index: 5
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049
Dark Horse: No
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049 as a movie, but War For The Planet Of The Apes as an achievement
Brief Thoughts:
- This is a two-film race. War For The Planet Of The Apes won the VES, but Blade Runner 2049 won at BAFTA. It is a coin flip at this point, but ultimately I think the Academy is going to use this award as a way to award the entire Apes franchise after the trilogy has gotten a nomination in this category for each film… which is why Blade Runner 2049 will probably win, but that is how these coin flips go.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Screenplay by James Ivory
Screenplay by Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
Screenplay by Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
Story by James Mangold
Written for the screen by Aaron Sorkin
Screenplay by Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Predicted Winner: Call Me By Your Name
Confidence Index: 9.8
Could Win: Mudbound
Dark Horse: The Disaster Artist
Should Win: Call Me By Your Name (I am sorry Logan, but it is true…)
Brief Thoughts:
- This is one of the most sure things of the night, with only Coco being a more sure thing at this point. James Ivory has won virtually everything, and the only real way he is losing is if there is a wave of support for Mudbound to get Dee Rees an Oscar, but that is not happening. Just pick the one Best Picture nominee on the list and move on.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Written by Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
Written by Jordan Peele
Written by Greta Gerwig
Screenplay by Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor
Story by Guillermo del Toro
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Written by Martin McDonagh
Predicted Winner: Get Out
Confidence Index: 4
Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Dark Horse: Lady Bird
Should Win: The Big Sick
Brief Thoughts:
- This category may be the most informative of the night. If The Shape of Water somehow wins, it is definitely winning Best Picture. If Lady Bird wins, it opens the most possibilities to a wacky Oscar night, as it would most allow the Academy to spread the love in the major categories, but both seem behind the two favorites at this point (though Lady Bird did get a big win at the Independent Spirit Awards). Get Out and Three Billboards are neck and neck right now, with Get Out having Critics’ Choice and WGA wins, while Three Billboards won at the Golden Globes and BAFTA. If Three Billboards wins here it is likely also winning Best Picture (not definitely, like in the case of The Shape of Water, but let’s just say I find it hard to believe Three Billboards can win Best Picture without a win here). However, I don’t think Three Billboards is getting the Best Picture win, so I am going with Get Out here, as this is the best place to get Jordan Peele a win, even if Get Out doesn’t also win Best Picture.
That’s it for my picks. This year is full of so many coin flips that I could just as easily get everything right as I could get nothing right. I look forward to being likely wrong about most of them!