Oscarathon 2018: Oscar Forecast Megathread – Other Best Film Awards

Well, it was good while it lasted. After last year brought me a sliver of respect for this category, it decided to completely obliterate that sliver with extreme prejudice. Honestly, I was tempted to just be like, “Only real categories deserve actual real analysis, and this is no longer a real category,” but I guess I will do my best to try to say something still. Out of respect for the films that deserved these nominations, I will offer some brief thoughts that are still likely to be full of snark…

So, this was a down year for animation. Especially when compared to last year. This group was always going to look a bit weak, but man, the Academy was at least set up to maybe honor some more independent flavored movies this year, seeing as there was no Disney movies, one great Pixar film, and then the rest of the major studios all collectively decided to release garbage. I mean, I know this category comes down to what the kids of voters watch, but still. Considering the Academy changed the rules of eligible voters just to try and make up for The Lego Movie not getting a nomination, the fact that the one non-Pixar major studio movie from this year that was not mediocre or garbage in the form of Lego Batman failed to get a nomination is a head scratcher. Then there is In This Corner of the World, which had the misfortune of being a Japanese film not made by Studio Ghibli, and thus not worth being considered by voters; or Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, which had a lot of potential to pull off a surprise nomination like Boy and The World did for Gkids, but fell short as well. Hell, even a movie by a former Ghibli employee in the form of Mary and the Witch’s Flower couldn’t get a nomination, which might be a blessing, because that would have effectively made Miyazaki a genre of movies in the minds of some people, as opposed to, you know, one person’s vision. It doesn’t help that unless GKids gets the rights to a Japanese movie (which, even then they end up with too many most of the time and things like Napping Princess get lost in the shuffle), it is stuck with an inferior distributor or even worse, Funimation, which means films like A Silent Voice don’t even have a chance to get considered. Or that small films like My Entire High School Sinking into the Sea have no real chance of being seen by the voters at large, so it has no chance for a nomination. Hell, I am not the biggest fan of Ernest & Celestine, but can someone tell me how the new film from its creators, The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales, couldn’t get the same respect that other former nominees get and be on a permanent shortlist for nominations, especially in a weak year? Any of these films would have made fine choices and would have demonstrated that this category is not just a vanity category for major animation studios to put forth whatever they want no matter the quality and still be rewarded, but because this is not a real category, voters basically shrugged their shoulders and said hey, Blue Sky (I mean, they couldn’t even pick the right Blue Sky movie in the form of Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie) and Dreamworks haven’t gotten love in a while, and my kids like those movies, so sure, whatever, and well… just, fuck this category. At least there were 26 eligible movies this year, so it shows that the medium is continuing to grow, even if the Academy has no idea what that means.

I guess we should appreciate how great Coco is

Coco

While not quite top tier Pixar (probably I could change my mind on this), this is still an excellent movie that has the heart of great Pixar movies and brings a degree of representation that is greatly appreciated. Especially considering that, unlike last year with Kubo and the Two Strings, this film actually cast Latinos in all the roles in a movie that is about Mexican culture. This is an especially important movie when you consider that Pixar is basically not bothering to make original movies again until 2020 (Disney is in a similar position). That might mean something, considering that the Academy has shown a real antipathy toward animation sequels, with only Toy Story 3 managing to pull a win for a sequel (and honestly, that really shouldn’t even count, as this award didn’t even exist when the first two Toy Story movies came out, so that was the first time the Oscars could even give an award to that franchise). Of course, Disney and Pixar are about to call this bluff, and will likely win this standoff, especially now that the voting has been opened to everyone, and America continues to not take this genre seriously enough. Anyhow, Coco is going to win and that isn’t really a bad thing, as it is quite good, even if, as always, this category could really benefit if someone besides Disney or Pixar could win. But that is not happening this year. I mean, I could say things like, this film won at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, and the PGAs, while it also got BAFTA and numerous Annie nominations… but why? Coco is going to win, even without all that, because the Academy is paying back Pixar for not nominating Finding Dory last year, so at this point I am just going to say whatever I want for the rest of this category.

At least GKids gives a fuck

The Breadwinner

Umm, I mean, if there was a way for something besides Coco to win, I guess this would be it. It has nominations from <insert whatever important awards>, but that doesn’t matter, because this film is not Coco. The big things this film has going for it is it is directed by Nora Twomey, who co-directed The Secret of Kells and was the head of story for Song of the Sea, and that Angelina Jolie’s company produced this movie. These kind of things could allow it an outside chance at pulling an upset if Coco was of, let’s say, Finding Dory quality, but Coco is much better than that, so the team behind this film is just going to be happy to be there and to get more publicity for a great movie that is going to be the latest in the line of failed challengers to the Disney and Pixar empire.

The Animators still have some pull

Loving Vincent

This is the most formally creative movie to come out in animation in quite some time. Every single frame was hand painted in the impressionist style of Vincent Van Gough, and it is stunning to look at. Add in that it manages to make a pseudo-biography into a compelling story that is able to offer some strong insight into the mind of dreamers and creators, and this movie is honestly everything this category should be awarding. The fact that this film was also partially funded by a Kickstarter campaign adds even more intrigue to it, and if nothing else, it is quite the story. Enjoy the booze and parties, filmmakers. You are not winning, but you earned all of this.

This one isn’t the worst thing ever I guess

Ferdinand

So, like, look, I guess this is fine. There is nothing wrong with honoring one movie that is primarily focused for children, even if it does so in a– no, fuck it. Even if this choice isn’t a complete embarrassment like the other nominee in this category, that doesn’t mean it deserves an Oscar nomination. I am not saying there isn’t a place for a movie like this. In fact, I am glad it exists, because limiting the type of movies that can be made in animation is exactly the problem I am advocating against, but that doesn’t mean it deserves a god damn Oscar nomination. I mean, seriously, have some standards, Academy. I am so done with this category.

AGRHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

The Boss Baby

ARRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGH *throws computer across the room and sets fire to everything*

Oh look, the one place I have even less respect for than this category, Coco wins big again, while The Breadwinner pulls off the insulting Independent Animation award. Also, like, seriously, just look at the nominations for the Best Animation Feature Award compared to the Best Independent Animated Feature Award and weep, just weep.

After trying to go against the Disney/Pixar machine last year, BAFTA goes with Coco because it wants to be right, and… whatever, I need to stop writing about this category.

As always, this category is a bit of a mess. All 15 films that made the Oscar shortlist could have gotten a nomination. Still, there was a surprising amount of snubs, including the PGA winner Jane, another Syrian based film, City of Ghosts, and Netflix’s Chasing Coral. Al Gore couldn’t pull off a nomination this time for An Inconvenient Sequel, and in general, the Academy went where it wanted here. This creates a rather wide-open race in which any of these films could win in the end, even if some seem to stand out more because of the social issues they represent or the timeliness of their release.

This subject already won for the short

Last Men in Aleppo

The first Syrian-produced and -directed film to ever be nominated by the Academy is about a familiar subject: the White Helmets. The short about this same group won an Oscar last year, and it is hard not to think that the feature-length version could do so as well. Especially considering such a win could allow for a way for the Academy to stick it to Donald Trump, which is always going to be a consideration as long as he is president. There is no real favorite in this category, so it comes down to just kind of picking something and going with it. Right now this film looks like it will resonate the most with voters.

Netflix is primed to break through

Icarus

Strong Island

Netflix has to like where it is at. It has the one film nominated on this list that received both a BAFTA and Satellite Award nomination in the form of Icarus, and also the one film that taps into the Black Lives Matter movement when the category has yet to really award such a movie in the form of Strong Island. Icarus further benefits from being extremely timely, seeing as it is about the Russian Olympic doping scandal, and is out at the same time as the current Winter Olympics. This could give it the extra boost it needs to pull off the win. Meanwhile, the continued push from the Academy to honor diverse stories is a boon for Strong Island. The problem is that it might have been better if Netflix had just gotten one of these two films a nomination, because now there is a question of which it should support, and whether voters will be split on these movies. Such confusion might cost Netflix the win it is desperately seeking and likely deserves, considering all the efforts Netflix has done to reinvigorate the documentary genre as a whole.

Might be a little late

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

You have to wonder if this film would get more buzz if it had come out, say four years ago, or hell, even two years ago when The Big Short was also at the front of people’s minds. Instead, now a documentary dealing with the troubling prosecution of a Chinese American-owned bank after the 2008 financial crisis might be a little dated at this point. Still, this is a wide-open category, so maybe people will want to highlight the ridiculousness of this being the only bank to be prosecuted for the entire industry’s collective failure.

An Icon

Faces Places

This nomination feels like a way to honor the legendary career of Agnès Varda, who received an Honorary Oscar just last year. As the one film that is not about any kind of social or political issue, this film has a tough road ahead to win, as the Academy is much more inclined to honor a message movie. But this film is a nice reprieve from the normal deluge of documentaries you get at the Oscars, so that might make it appealing to many voters, who want to honor a film that is just about an interesting subject. This seems unlikely, but with no real favorite, anything could happen, especially when that could allow the Academy to get a deserving woman on stage to accept an award.

Real World Update:As of now, the producer (Kareem Abeed) and subject (White Helmets founder Mahmoud Al-Hattar) of Last Men in Aleppo will not be attending the ceremony due to a combination of being blocked by the Syrian government and the travel ban making their entry even more difficult. This is the kind of real-world incident that could power this film to a win. As last year with The Salesman proved, there is nothing the Academy likes more than a chance to make a powerful political statement during the awards, so this could give this movie the edge going forward.

I mean, not really all that helpful, as the winner was Chasing Coral. Which wasn’t even nominated. So, umm, yeah, that’s that.

Even less helpful, as the winner was I Am Not Your Negro, which was nominated for last year’s Oscar. So at this point, we are all kind of just on our own, as this is going to come down to which subject matter resonates with voters the most, which could be, umm, any of them. So have fun with that.

In a category as chaotic as this, any film picking up a win is a big deal. Faces Places picked up the win against among others Last Men in Aleppo, and in general this represents a massive swing in favor of the film, which is from a beloved icon in Agnès Varda, who would become the oldest winner ever if she wins (even if/when James Ivory wins, as she is eight days older than him). Faces Places is the only film of these nominees that is on a lighter and more feel-good subject. In a year in which there is no real separation between these films, that may be enough.

As always, the bigger snubs in this category come from the films that didn’t even make the shortlist. This year that was Norway’s Thelma and France’s BPM. There was also the exclusion of Cambodia’s First They Killed My Father, which gained a lot of press from being directed by Angelina Jolie. Still, there was one other big snub from the shortlist in the form of In the Fade, which had built itself quite a bit of momentum with its win at the Golden Globes, and looked to be the favorite to win the whole thing before it failed to even get a nomination. Then there is Israel’s Foxtrot, which also seemed primed for a nomination but came up short. All this has made this race completely wide open, and really any of these films could win at this point. It may be one category that swings a lot of Oscar pools.

Slight Favorites

The Square

A Fantastic Woman

Both of these films got Golden Globe nominations, and have a key factor in their favor. The Square won the Palm d’Or and is made by Ruben Östlund, whom many felt deserved a nomination for his previous film, Force Majeure. A Fantastic Woman has Daniela Vega’s performance, which garnered buzz for the Best Actress category and might get crossover here. Plus, the fact that the film is about a transgender woman allows the Academy to reward a film about a group that has gotten almost no representation at the Oscars. Overall, it is likely to come down to whether voters want to rally around the intellectualism of The Square or the social factors of A Fantastic Woman, which is going to be hard to determine considering how weird the voting for this category always is.

The only film that could win something major before the Oscars

Loveless

This film has the pedigree, with director Andrey Zvyagintsev’s being previously nominated for Leviathan. The film also was nominated for a BAFTA, so it is the only nominee that could actually win something before voting begins. It also scored a Golden Globe nomination, so it is only a slight underdog compared to the two films above it. A lot of people seemed to like Leviathan more, so it may be hard to award him for this film instead, but it has a real shot and should expect to win at least something in the run up to Oscar night.

It is very different than the other films

On Body and Soul

The thing that makes this film stand out is it looks very much like a love story with a slight twist. That’s really it. There is no grander statement with it, and instead, it is simply showing the Hungarian version of a love story. This kind of universality could really allow it to fit with a lot of voters, so a speech should be ready in case a win comes. But likely this film is not going to repeat Hungary’s success with Son of Saul.

I mean, there is no reason to think it will win

The Insult

This feels like a movie that has the least chance of winning, but it also felt like one of the least likely to get a nomination. So while it is likely that the people associated with this movie are going to the Oscars simply to dress fancy and drink, a win is not out of the question at all… So I guess drink slowly and have a speech ready.

This is a weird category, because BAFTA uses a different timeline than the Oscars, so the nominees in this category end up being a mix of movies that qualified in different Oscar years. That led to the nominations of movies submitted last year in the form of Elle, The Salesman, and winner The Handmaiden (woooooooo, go the best film of 2016). The only submitted films from this year that got nominations were non-Oscar nominated First They Killed My Father and Loveless, which missed a real opportunity to gain some momentum. At this point this feels like anyone can win here, but that the two favorites remain A Fantastic Woman and The Square. It may just come down to what the voters are more likely to value this year in voting to determine the winner, social cause or intellectual satire.

There is not much to say here, especially seeing as this is usually the category that I find impossible to actually see because its screenings are so much less accessible than the other short programs. If I can see it, I will add something, but for now, the most I can say is that this category has really started to trend toward social issues lately, with a smidge of WWII subject matter sprinkled in. The other thing to look for is a message film built around one strong subject. Using that, I would say the likely winner is coming from Heroin(e), Traffic Stop, or Edith+Eddie.

Heroin(e) is the best-made movie of these by far, and if it was purely based on merit it would get the win, but that is not how this always works. The subject of Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 is quite compelling, even if the filmmaking in that doc is pretty bad and hurts the film. Edith+Eddie is a sad tale about elderly abuse against an elder interracial couple. Traffic Stop finds a way to channel Black Lives Matter in a way that is different than what one might expect. There is a case to be made for any of these films–really, only Knife Skills has no real shot at winning. Not because it is bad, but because it lacks the pizzazz of the other four.

There is a bit of extra star power in this category this year, with a film from Kobe Bryant in the mix. That kind of fame is huge in a category like this, and is likely to get this film a win. However, as suggested by Pixar’s general bad showings in this category (last year being the exception), the Academy tends to go in weird directions, so who knows. Dear Basketball did win the Annie Award in this category, which while not the greatest indicator, certainly doesn’t hurt.

Nothing has changed in terms of thinking that Kobe Bryant’s stardom is going to get him this Oscar, but it must be said that it feels a bit weird that he was able to use his celebrity to kind of buy an Oscar, as most people don’t have access to Disney animators and John Williams to do your score. Still, this category likes to spread the love, so neither Negative Space and Garden Party can be discounted. Lou is a really strong film, and if Pixar hadn’t just won this last year, the studio might have a real chance to win again, but it seems unlikely it will happen two years in a row. Unless this category has really just become another way to give Disney/Pixar awards, and if it has, then Dear Basketball kind of still has an edge. Revolting Rhymes is really good, but suffers because, well, it is not a movie, but instead two episodes of television–of which you only get to watch one, because otherwise, it would go past this category’s time limit. So it is hard to see it winning.

This category has really skewed toward films that are either very light and happy or extremely overwrought and maudlin. Social issues tend not to impact this category like the others, so that really serves either The Silent Child or The Eleven O’Clock, but this year has a real chance to be different, considering the school shootings that occurred in both Kentucky and especially Florida not long before the voting for this year’s awards. The Academy is going to be hard-pressed not to vote for DeKalb Elementary and allow a platform to talk about gun control and school shootings, so it is likely to break the pattern this year by awarding a social issue film.

Umm, it may not matter, but Dekalb Elementary is a mess of a film that is clearly a student film. The story it is based on may not have much to it, but man, there is no story there. Ultimately, it being about a school shooting when voting opens at the time of a horrific school shooting may matter more, but as a film, it is lacking. The Silent Child is a great call to action film that really pulls at your heartstrings. The Eleven O’Clock is the one light film in this whole group, and proves to be a breath of fresh air in this category, even if it doesn’t have much depth to it. Watu Wote might be the best film of the bunch, but is likely to get lost in the shuffle. Then there is My Nephew Emmett, which is the most emotionally affecting of the bunch, but might ultimately be too much of a downer to win.