Oscarathon 2018: Oscar Forecast Megathread – Technical Awards

In All, Movies by David

Now that Oscar nominations and some of the bigger awards have rolled out, true Oscar prognosticating can begin, as Oscarathon 2018 continues. Just like last year there are going to be four major posts that will be continuously updated after different points in the awards race. I’ll be adding new thoughts on each race as information comes out so you can see how each event changes the race as we go along. The first megathread discussed the Big Six awards. The second megathread covered the the awards I have classified as the Creative Awards. This one will cover the ones I have classified as the Technical Awards.

  • Updated Visual Effects Category with VES Awards results.
  • Updated Editing Category with ACE Awards results.
  • Updated Sound Editing Category with Golden Reel results.
  • Updated with Audio Cinema Society results.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Just give Deakins an Oscar!

Current Rankings

  1. Roger A. Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
  2. Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water
  3. Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk
  4. Rachel Morrison, Mudbound
  5. Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049

Should Win: Blade Runner 2049

Should Have Been Nominated: Logan or Baby Driver

Analysis

Initial Thoughts:

These were the five picks that got ASC nominations, so nothing too surprising with these picks. Obviously, Rachel Morrison’s nomination is the biggest deal here because she became the first woman to ever get a nomination in this category. This is also the first nomination for both Laustsen and, surprisingly, Hoytema, while it is the fourth for Delbonnel and, well, the 14th for Deakins… But before this breaks down into a bunch of complaints about how ridiculous it is that Deakins still doesn’t have an Oscar, we should mention some of the films that missed the cut. None of these should really be called snubs, but they are certainly worthy of praise. Like the rest of the movie (with the exception of the nominated screenplay), Logan‘s John Mathieson was overlooked, as was Baby Drivers‘s cinematographer Bill Pope. Another overlooked cinematographer was Sayombhu Mukdeeprom for his work on Call Me By Your Name. Ultimately, though, it is hard to really argue with any of these choices.

Is this the time promised?

Blade Runner 2049

Look, I know we have all been here before, but the only reason not to pick Deakins to win at this point is literally because he has lost 13 other times. Deakins has won almost every award he has been nominated for when it comes to his work on Blade Runner 2049, including the Critics’ Choice Awards. If he can win the ASC and BAFTA awards as well, that should mean he can finally break his Oscarless streak. Still, until he actually wins, it is best to take all of this with a grain of salt, because history seems meaningless when it comes to Deakins winning this award.

Is a repeat of Pan’s Labyrinth coming?

The Shape of Water

If Deakins is going to be thwarted again, it is likely to be because of Laustsen’s wonderful work on The Shape of Water. The few times that Deakins has lost this year has been to Laustsen, and the fact that The Shape of Water is likely to be the winner of the most Oscars this year is something that can’t be discounted. This also feels awfully reminiscent of what happened in 2006 with Children of Men and Pan’s Labyrinth. That year, Children of Men had quite a dominant run and looked to be the film that allowed Emmanuel Lubezki to finally win his Oscar before the del Toro-directed Pan’s Labyrinth instead got the win for Guillermo Navarro. That doesn’t mean that this will happen again this year, but when it comes to Deakins at this point anything that could go against him has to be accounted for.

He is going to win one eventually

Dunkirk

Hoyte van Hoytema is going to win an Oscar some day. He is one the best cinematographers alive, and even though this is just his first nomination, he is going to be on the right side of this at some point. Still, there is nothing to suggest that that will be this time, other than the slight chance that Dunkirk is going to sweep the technical awards. He just hasn’t won anything like the two above him, and Dunkirk has generally just been too lost in the shuffle to make a difference at this point. If ASC or BAFTA goes his way that could change things, but this is not likely to be his year.

Is it time for more history?

Mudbound

This is an historic nomination, but likely this is as far as Morrison goes this time. She still has chance to pull off a win at the ASC Awards and change things, but really the biggest thing going for her is if the voters simply decide they want to make a real statement by getting as many women on the Oscar stage as possible. Well, and the fact that Morrison also did the cinematography for Black Panther, whose release is right before Oscar voting opens. That is going to bring her a lot of publicity and good will, and could possibly lead her to getting a lot of votes. If nothing else, now that she has gotten a nomination, Morrison should expect to get a lot more going forward (and possibly as soon as next year).

He has been here before

Darkest Hour

Delbonnel is much like Hoytema, in that he is likely to get an Oscar at some point. Many feel like he was robbed when he didn’t win for his work on Inside Llewyn Davis (I am not one of those people, though I will say it is quite excellent), so it is possible that sentiment could lead him to victory here, but it is highly unlikely. He has just been lost too much in the shuffle.

ASC Awards:

Roger Deakins picks up his fourth ASC award, and solidifies himself as the favorite, although not by as much as you think. Only 13 of the 31 ASC winners have gone on to win the Oscar, and three of those were Emmanuel Lubezki, so it is very clear that the Oscars values thing much differently than the ASC. Deakins has found that out the three prior times he won this award but lost on Oscar night. There is no real reason to pick anyone but Deakins at this point, other than the fact that he has failed to win in this position before. If that happens again this year, it is probably because The Shape of Water had a huge Oscar night.

BAFTA Awards:

Another win for Deakins. If he loses this year he should just stop bothering to submit for an Oscar, because it is never going to happen and the Academy should be stripped of the ability to vote for this category ever again.

FILM EDITING

Let’s keep on moving.

Current Rankings:

  1. Lee Smith, Dunkirk
  2. Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water
  3. Tatiana S. Riegel, I, Tonya
  4. Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos, Baby Driver
  5. Jon Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will Win: Dunkirk

Should Win: Baby Driver

Should Have Been Nominated: Blade Runner 2049

Analysis

Initial Thoughts:

This category once again proves to be one that eliminates Best Picture contenders, as both Get Out and Lady Bird being left out significantly hurts their chances of winning Best Picture. This may sound familiar, but… since editing became a category in 1934, only ten films have won Best Picture without at least an Editing nomination. The last to do so was Birdman, which honestly only technically counts because a big conceit of that film was that it was all one shot (or at least looked like it was one shot), so it couldn’t very well be nominated for an Editing award. So somewhat discounting Birdman, the last film to pull this feat off was Ordinary People in 1980. So that would suggest that the biggest contender for Best Picture are nominees Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Meanwhile, Baby Driver was able to get a much deserved nomination despite its Kevin Spacey issues, while I, Tonya pulled off the last nomination. Besides the aforementioned Get Out and Lady Bird, other films left out were Eddie nominees The Post, Molly’s Game, and Blade Runner 2049. Also both Wonder Women and Logan would have made fine choices, as would have Coco, but alas, none made it through.

Never bet against the war movie

Dunkirk

I’ve learned my lesson from last year. If a war movie is in this category, it should be considered the favorite, especially when it has won as much as Dunkirk has, including and most importantly the Critics’ Choice Award. This is Lee Smith’s second nomination, and after the Inception debacle where he was ridiculously snubbed, this could be a bit of a make up, except this time he is likely to win. This is probably the biggest award that Dunkirk can win, which is a big deal for a film with the second most nominations.

Being the Oscar favorite can’t hurt

The Shape of Water

This is more of a feeling. The Shape of Water hasn’t really won any precursors in this category, but being the Oscar favorite makes this feel like it has a real chance. The Shape of Water still has a chance of running the table, and its awards are going to come from somewhere, so counting it out here would be foolish. Obviously, a win somewhere, like at ACE or BAFTA, would help, but you still can’t assume it’ll lose here.

Deserved nomination, but this film is radioactive

Baby Driver

On merit, this is really the film that should be considered the best bet besides Dunkirk (and more so, as it really has the best editing, an element that is crucial to the film’s success). When Dunkirk has lost, it has lost to Baby Driver, but there is just so much happening with this movie that has nothing to do with the movie itself. Being effectively the last major film that is likely to showcase Kevin Spacey does that to you. This should really not impact the editor of this movie, who is, you know, not Kevin Spacey, but voters are just going to have real trouble with this regardless. Still, Baby Driver is the kind of movie that wins the Editing Oscar because of how integral the editing is to the importance of the movie. If it wasn’t going against a war movie, it likely still could win despite all of this noise around it, but it is, so the film’s chances feel iffy.

If only it had gotten a Best Picture nomination

I, Tonya

This is probably the most surprising nomination of the bunch. Not because of merit, as the editing in this movie is quite good and really makes the movie pop, but because it knocked out so many other pictures that got Best Picture nominations. If I, Tonya had pulled off a Best Picture nomination itself, it might have a real chance of winning here. Without it, this film is likely just happy to have the nomination (especially considering it is associated with troubled distributor Neon).

It is a Best Picture favorite

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

While this film did get an ACE nomination, this really feels like a nomination that was obtained because Three Billboards is one of the major Best Picture contenders. Because of that, it can’t be counted out, but there is no real data at this point to suggest that it has a real chance of winning. If it picks up a major win before the Oscars that might change things, but as of now this is likely just padding Three Billboards‘ nomination count.

ACE Awards Update:

Dunkirk continues its winning ways, and likely proves that Lee Smith is getting his first Oscar. Especially with I, Tonya being the other winner, which would have meant more if I, Tonya had gotten a Best Picture nomination. Still, it is the only film not to lose at the ACE other than Dunkirk, so it can’t be completely discounted. 

BAFTA Awards:

And there is the major award that Baby Driver needed to prove it could win this. It is still the underdog to Dunkirk, and honestly it would be pretty stunning for it to win come Oscar time, but at the same time it is hard to believe it beat Dunkirk at a British awards show, so at the very least this is actually a race that could go a different way–refreshing at a time when so many other categories are about sewn up.

SOUND EDITING

Just stay down, and let the sound roll over you.

Current Ranking

  1. Richard King and Alex Gibson, Dunkirk
  2. Mark Mangini and Theo Green, Blade Runner 2049
  3. Julian Slater, Baby Driver
  4. Nathan Robitaille and Nelson Ferreira, The Shape of Water
  5. Matthew Wood and Ren Klyce, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Will Win: Dunkirk

Should Win: Baby Driver

Should Have Been Nominated: Logan (never going to stop)

Analysis

Initial Thoughts:

Another year for people not to know what the difference is between this and the Sound Mixing category. Generally, of course, this leads to whatever wins one category winning the other, unless musicals are involved, or, well, whatever happened last year. Just as a note: Sound Editing concerns itself with taking all of the actual sound elements in a movie, such as ADR, Foley, music, etc., and arranging them in the movie. The Oscars also tends to use this more to reflect on any sound that is not recorded on set. As always, both sound categories are less beholden to Best Picture nominees, but despite that, it did still bring in two Best Picture nominees in the form of Dunkirk and The Shape of Water. Blade Runner 2049 continued its technical nomination run, while the Academy picked this place as a way to get The Last Jedi some nominations. The great sound design of Baby Driver gets it another nomination. This is a category that would have been a good place to get Wonder Woman a nomination, or a great place to honor the terrific sound effects of Logan. Overall it is hard to really argue with this category. All the nominees got BAFTA nominations for overall sound, and all but Star Wars got nominations in all three major categories of the Golden Reels (Star Wars got one).

War movie + Best Picture nominee = Winner

Dunkirk

A lot of this category is based on feeling until we get more data, but Dunkirk seems like the best bet here. War movies do quite well in this category, and Dunkirk is the Best Picture nominee that seems most likely to win early in the night and create some buzz. The Golden Reels and BAFTA will help give some more information, but for now this feels like the favorite.

This movie is sound

Baby Driver

The sound is everything in this movie, and based on that it probably should win. This is probably the better category for it to win between the two sound categories if the awards are going to split (which feels unlikely with all the nominees matching). This is a hard category to win for a film without some degree of Best Picture buzz, because so many likely just vote for them as an afterthought, but this is also the kind of genre film that could break through if it gets the right momentum and can overcome being infected with Spacey.

Not a normal nominee

The Shape of Water

This is a nice change of pace for the category, as this is a much quieter movie than the Academy tends to nominate, but that doesn’t change the fact that this is not a film that usually gets a nomination like that. Of course, the fact that it is the Best Picture favorite certainly doesn’t hurt this film, but ultimately the nomination only here feels like a win, as this is probably a nomination to help pad this film’s nomination numbers. It still has an edge over some of the other films, because it may just get voted on out of laziness, but a win here is unlikely.

If it can pull off a tech sweep

Blade Runner 2049

This film likely needs to have a groundswell of support amongst all of its nominations to pull this off, which it very well might have. Without that, the film probably comes up short. A number of wins from the MPSE or BAFTA would help, because this film just needs help gaining momentum of any kind.

Star Wars had to get something

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

The Academy had to fit this movie in somewhere, so it picked the Sound and Visual categories. That is likely as far as the film goes, though, as it probably has the least momentum of the rest of the movies, considering it has no chance of winning anything else. Still, it does have the Disney machine behind it, and is, well, Star Wars, so you never know.

BAFTA Awards:

Dunkirk won for Best Sound, which likely means it is winning at least one of the sound categories and likely both. Anything else would be rather surprising at this point.

Golden Reel Awards:

Oh my, this changes everything. Blade Runner 2049 pulls off the all-important Foley and Effects win at the Golden Reels. This is the major precursor award for the Sound Editing category that suggests that Dunkirk doesn’t have this category on lock as much as it had seemed. The Sound Editing category is generally where war movies struggle compared to the Sound Mixing category, so this could mean a repeat of last year is coming, when Arrival won Sound Editing but Hacksaw Ridge won Sound Mixing. Dunkirk should still be the favorite right now, as it still feels like these two categories are going to be the same winner this year and Dunkirk stands out more than Blade Runner 2049, but if the categories do split, Blade Runner 2049 seems set up to be the beneficiary, which in turn could suggest that the movie is going to have a big night with the technical awards.

SOUND MIXING

I mean, it had to get in somewhere.

Current Ranking

  1. Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo and Mark Weingarten, Dunkirk
  2. Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin and Mary H. Ellis, Baby Driver
  3. Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Glen Gauthier, The Shape of Water
  4. David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Stuart Wilson, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  5. Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth, Blade Runner 2049

Will Win: Dunkirk

Should Win: Baby Driver

Should Have Been Nominated: Coco (though I am tempted to say Logan again for the marvelous mixing of that claw through the head effect alone)

Analysis

Initial Thoughts:

The Academy is really not helping matters by giving the Editing and Mixing categories the same nominees. As another note: Sound Mixing, when it comes to the Oscars, is about all the sound that is recorded on set, as well as more generally dealing with the mixing, which is the process of determining the levels and other qualities of the things we hear in movies. This category gained some added press last year when Greg P. Russell was disqualified after it was found that he had campaigned for votes, which makes sense, seeing as he has 17 nominations and zero wins. It is surprising that neither Coco nor The Greatest Showman were able to get a nomination here considering how well musicals do in this category. Wonder Women also feels like a strange omission in this category. The case for each of these movies is going to be similar to what they were for the Sound Editing category, other than that Blade Runner 2049 is the one film that failed to get a guild nomination from the CAS.

War movie + Best Picture nominee = Winner

Dunkirk

I mean, seriously, the Academy is really making this hard. I don’t really know what more I can say here that wouldn’t also be said in the Sound Editing category, other than that Mixing is often a better category for war films, as shown with Hacksaw Ridge‘s victory last year. So if Dunkirk does only win one of these, this is the category it is more likely to win.

This movie is sound

Baby Driver

The opposite of Dunkirk, as this is probably the weaker of the two categories for Baby Driver. If it can win one of these categories it likely wins the other, but if it only wins one, then Sound Editing feels like a much stronger category for the movie. This film more than any other could use some wins, as that would show that its bad press hasn’t made the film wholly toxic.

Not a normal nominee

The Shape of Water

Because of the musical elements in this movie, this would be the stronger category for the film, as musicals do much better in Mixing than Editing. The use of sound in this film to build emotion and tensions is quite impressive, so don’t overlook this movie. If The Shape of Water picks up one or both of these sound categories, it is likely heading toward a huge night.

If it can pull off a tech sweep

Blade Runner 2049

The one film in this category without a CAS nomination, it would seem to be in the worst shape in this category, but the strong chance of a double winner this year helps keep it afloat, especially if it can win all of the technical awards it is nominated for. Still, this movie needs a win somewhere to build any real momentum.

Star Wars had to get something (these likely all look familiar)

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

These nominations are the victory for The Last Jedi, so it is hard to see the film winning here, but this is the better category for the movie if the categories are to have split winners. More than likely this is simply a nomination designed to allow The Last Jedi to say it was a multiple Oscar nominee.

BAFTA Awards:

Dunkirk won for Best Sound, which likely means it is winning at least one of the sound categories and likely both. Anything else would be rather surprising at this point.

Audio Cinema Society:

Dunkirk picks up the win, and there is no weird upset like in the Golden Reels. While the editing category is a bit up in the air, the mixing category should be in the bag for Dunkirk now.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Is this finally the year for the Apes?

Current Ranking

  1. Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist, War for the Planet of the Apes
  2. John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert and Richard R. Hoover, Blade Runner 2049
  3. Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  4. Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner and Dan Sudick, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  5. Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza and Mike Meinardus, Kong: Skull Island

Will Win: War for the Planet of the Apes

Should Win: Blade Runner 2049

Should Have Been Nominated: Okja

Analysis

Initial Thoughts:

Nothing too surprising here. All of the Planet of the Apes movies have gotten a nomination, Blade Runner is Blade Runner, Star Wars is Star Wars, you figure some Marvel film would get in, and the Academy loves those big effects so that got King Kong a nomination. It is a bit sad that the category didn’t pick something a bit more subtle, like Okja or The Shape of Water. Obviously, anything more that Logan could have gotten would have been nice. Life getting a nomination would have been a treat, simply because an Alien clone would have done better than an actual Alien movie in the form of Alien: Covenant. Wonder Woman likely was punished for some of its horrendous Hades effects, but maybe still deserved a look, as did Thor: Ragnorak, which got a Critics’ Choice Awards nod here. Still, all of these nominees got the main nomination from the VES guild, so it is hard to say there were any snubs.

I mean, it is Blade Runner

Blade Runner 2049

A co-favorite right now that has a slight edge because of multiple nominations that will give it a lot of exposure. This film scored seven VES nominations, and is the kind of sci-fi film that the Academy has greatly enjoyed rewarding lately. 2049 hasn’t had the best track record so far, so it can’t be more than a co-favorite at this time, and a general lack of momentum for this film could cost it in the end.

Is this finally the year for Apes?

War for the Planet of the Apes

The Critics’ Choice Award winner as well as a holder of seven VES nominations, this is the other co-favorite. The past two Planet of the Apes films also nabbed nominations and came up short, so this could be the Academy’s chance to honor the entire franchise with a win here. Likely the VES awards will tell us which film should really be the favorite at this point.

The Disney Duo

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

More nominations for Disney films that are hard to really differentiate between. You could make a case for either winning depending on which one Disney was willing to support, but unlike last year, where The Jungle Book was the clear play for Disney to support, these two are about even. It may just come down to how much either Lucasfilm and Marvel want this award, and even then, they both may be so far behind the top two that it doesn’t matter. The VES awards would need to do something drastic to feel like either of these has a real shot.

Umm, go King Kong?

King Kong: Skull Island

I mean, sure. This feels like the Academy feeling an enduring respect for King Kong and the giant monkey’s place in history, as opposed to a real sign of confidence that this film could win. Of all of the picks, this feels the least adventurous, but it did get the major VES nomination, and if it can pull off the win there it has a real shot here, especially considering it should get lots of support from Warner Brothers.[/expand]

VES Awards Update:

War for the Planet of the Apes has moved slightly ahead of its co-favorite Blade Runner 2049 after pulling off four wins at the VES Awards, including the coveted Best Visual Effects in a Feature Motion Picture Award, which has matched the Oscars 10 times in the 15-year history of the VES Awards. We’ll see what BAFTA has to say, but War for the Planet of the Apes is definitely the new favorite. The only thing holding back this film is that the past two installments of this franchise have come up short at the Oscars after winning the major VES award. So the question is whether the Academy decided to wait to award the final movie in a trilogy, ala Lords of the Rings, or if there is a bias against the visual effects in this franchise for some reason (or the simple fact that it is going against a Blade Runner movie that won two awards at the VES Awards itself).

BAFTA Awards:

Blade Runner 2049 strikes back in this competitive race that is anyone’s game. If you had to pick, War for the Planet of the Apes likely has a slight edge, but it is a very precarious lead that is likely gone if voters aren’t awarding the film for the work of its entire trilogy and not just this film.

That’s it for the technical categories. There will be one more of these posts, so be on the lookout.