We are almost there! Oscarathon 2018 heads toward a big moment, as the Oscar nominees will finally be revealed on January 23rd. You can see my previous thoughts about the Big Six races here, but now I will offer my predictions for all of the nominations with a bit more analysis in the non-big six categories that I actually feel I have proper data on, since I have been unable to do as much analysis as I have done in the past for most of them. In general I will offer more in-depth looks at things once I have some actual nominations to work with.
Best Picture
This race has gotten a lot more boring as the award shows have happened and now there are only two real contenders left. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri had been on quite the streak, winning the Golden Globe and SAG Awards, while The Shape of Water picked up the PGA Award and Critics’ Choice Award. At this point it is a toss up between the two of them. There is also a very good chance that the drama over who is going to make the cut for nomination is going to be the most drama we see with this race (this is going to become a theme with a lot of these races, you will soon see). There are seven films that are definitely getting a Best Picture nomination unless something really weird happens, so the question is for potential slots 8-10. At some point we will get ten nominees in this category again, but it is hard to see this being the year. Last year had nine movies that were locks for nominations, and simply needed one more movie to slip in, and it just couldn’t get there; so it is hard to see this year getting three films in that don’t seem to have the critical consensus of the top seven of this year or the top nine of last year. Realistically, there are six movies (okay, one could argue seven if we include Darkest Hour, but I am going to choose to believe the Academy’s love for England is satiated by the Dunkirk nomination) going for at max three, and more than likely two spots (and I wouldn’t be stunned if it was just one). These films are I, Tonya, The Florida Project, The Big Sick, Molly’s Game, Mudbound, and Wonder Woman. As cool as it is to say that Wonder Woman could be a nominee, I just don’t see it. Its PGA inclusion was cool, and gives movie hope, but it is just hard for me to think that enough people felt this film was the best film of the year for it to get nominated. So that leaves us with five contenders for what I believe to be two spots. I, Tonya seems to have created separation from the rest of these films because of Allison Janney’s ascension into the favorite for Best Supporting Actress and Margot Robbie seeming to lock in a Best Actress nomination at this point, so it looks like a pretty good bet for that eighth spot. Now we are down to four movies for one spot. Mudbound got a SAG nomination, but ultimately it still feels like the Academy is not ready to let Netflix into the party at the Best Picture level, so Mudbound probably falls short. So then there were three films, and now things get messy.
Molly’s Game and The Big Sick both got WGA and PGA nominations. Molly’s Game got an Eddie nomination, but The Big Sick got a SAG nomination, so metric-wise these should really be the two films fighting for a this spot, but it is just hard to overlook The Florida Project. It is exactly the type of indie film that the Academy loves: great performance from a child actor, a little film that could vibe, a powerhouse performance from a respected actor or actress in the form of Willem Dafoe, a director that could sneak into the Best Director race in Sean Baker, and a naturalistic style that makes it feel anti-Hollywood. Normally this film would coast to a nomination, but it just seems to have lost so much steam lately. If I thought this was the year we got ten nominees, I’d be more optimistic for it, but since it feels like we are getting nine again, this film doesn’t quite make the cut. So that leaves a choice between The Big Sick and Molly’s Game. If Jessica Chastain was more assured of a Lead Actress nomination, I think the pedigree of Molly’s Game would pull it through, but without that, I am going with the film that got a SAG nomination, since the actors make up the biggest branch of the academy… and also The Big Sick is, well, the better movie (however much that matters).
Predicted Nominees
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- The Shape of Water
- Lady Bird
- Get Out
- The Post
- Dunkirk
- Call Me By Your Name
- I, Tonya
- The Big Sick
Most Likely to Take a Spot or Earn the Mythical Tenth Spot: The Florida Project
Wild Card: Molly’s Game
Other Contenders: Wonder Woman, Mudbound
Best Director
Three Billboards‘s rise has pretty much assured that Martin McDonagh joins Guillermo del Toro and Christopher Nolan as guaranteed nominees. Then we have the two other DGA nominees, Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele. The problem is that, while the DGA has a great track record of matching the winner of the Oscar, its track record for matching the nominees is less than stellar. The last time it did so was 2010. So it seems more than likely that one of these two will be left out. Of the two, Gerwig still seems like the stronger bet, because there is still a good chance she could actually win this award if she gets nominated, while Peele probably would just be a ‘happy to be nominated’ candidate. So who else is there to realistically worry about? Well, first there is Steven Spielberg, whom many expected to get a DGA nomination, and whom many think has done some of his best work in years with The Post (that doesn’t say nearly as much as people think). Then there are the two unaccounted-for BAFTA nominees, Dennis Villeneuve, whose work on Blade Runner 2049 has mostly been overlooked, and Luca Guadagnino for his work on Call Me By Your Name. Then there is the long shot in Sean Baker for The Florida Project, who is exactly the kind of small film director that got a star performance out a child that the Academy loves (like really, really loves). Even saying all that, this feels like a year the nominations match the DGAs, even if that would mean the Academy has to give up on its Spielberg love. I am going with the DGA picks simply because it makes this year’s nominations the most interesting that they can realistically be, and because I think Get Out is heading toward a rather strong day, nomination-wise.
Predicted Nominees:
- Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
- Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
- Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
- Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Jordan Peele, Get Out
Most Likely To Take a Spot: Steven Spielberg, The Post
Wild Card: Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Can’t Ignore Until Nominations Are Out: Dennis Villeneuve, Luca Guadagnino, Patty Jenkins (I just want this in writing in case this happens)
Best Actress
This is a rather tidy race at this point. After her SAG win, Frances McDormand is now a prohibitive favorite to win once she gets an Oscar nomination, and really the other four nominations seem rather locked up. Saoirse Ronan and Sally Hawkins are definitive locks, and Margot Robbie has moved into being one as well. That just leaves one spot that is more than likely being taken by Meryl Streep. The only reason this is even a question is that Streep was unable to get either a SAG or BAFTA nomination. Still, considering the love for Streep and the fact that she did give quite a great performance in The Post, it is really hard to see her being denied by the Academy–like, really, really hard. If anyone was to take this spot from Streep, it would likely be Jessica Chastain, especially if Molly’s Game can pull off an Oscar nomination for Best Picture, but she too lacks a SAG or BAFTA nomination, so she is likely to come up short for a nomination (just like she did last year). The one person that could play a spoiler is Judi Dench, who got a SAG nomination, and, well, is Judi Dench. She is the type of actress with the clout to usurp Streep, but that seems really unlikely at this point. And really, it doesn’t matter all that much, because McDormand is winning this award.
Predicted Nominees:
- Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
- Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
- Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
- Meryl Streep, The Post
Next Up: Jessica Chastain
Wild Card: Judi Dench
Best Actor
This race would be rather tidy at this point if it were not for real-world issues intervening. Gary Oldman is the current definitive favorite after his SAG win, and no one is likely to stop him, other than the quiet rumblings about his checkered past including domestic abuse allegations. These rumblings kicked into overdrive after his SAG win. How much of an impact this will ultimately have remains to be seen, but if nothing else, it is not costing him a nomination. He is going to be easily joined by Daniel Day-Lewis, Timothee Chalamet, and Daniel Kaluuya as other nominees. So those four spots are a lock. The fifth spot was likely heading to James Franco for his work in The Disaster Artist after his Golden Globes win and SAG nomination, but Franco’s own recent issues with sexual misconduct accusations are really presenting a challenge to voters. These allegations came out about a week before Oscar voting ended, so it is 50/50 on whether that is enough time to have cost him votes. It feels like it is going to cost him his nomination, which instead is going to go to Tom Hanks for his work in The Post, both because there are a lot of people who already thought Hanks deserved the nomination and because he is Tom Hanks. If Franco does get a nomination, it is likely because he had already gotten too many votes for these allegations to matter (and to be fair, he did give a performance that warrants a nomination based purely on merit). The only other name that really makes sense at this point is Denzel Washington, because you can never go wrong with Denzel Washington.
Predicted Nominees:
- Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
- Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
- Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
- Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
- Tom Hanks, The Post
Alternate Pick: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Wild Cards: Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Best Supporting Actress
This is a category with six actresses going for five spots. Allison Janney is now the definitive favorite to win. Laurie Metcalfe is going to get a nomination, and still has an outside chance to win. Mary J. Blige is going to get a nomination to help show some love for Mudbound. So those spots are pretty easy to pick. The next two are harder. Octavia Spencer seems likely to get one of them because she is a past nominee, and part of what is likely to be a huge Oscar nomination haul for The Shape of Water. So that leaves us with Holly Hunter and Hong Chau. There is a lot to say for both of them, but the fact that I think The Big Sick is going to get a Best Picture nomination is going to give her an edge over Chau, who is hindered by the more mixed reception to her film Downsizing. Other than Janney and Metcalfe, though, I would not be shocked if any of these women were left out for Chau. The one wild card is Girls’ Trip‘s Tiffany Haddish, who I don’t think can actually get this nomination, but if something weird were to happen, she would be the one to sneak in and get a spot from someone.
Predicted Nominees:
- Allison Janney, I, Tonya
- Laurie Metcalfe, Lady Bird
- Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
- Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
- Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Alternate Pick: Hong Chau, Downsizing
Wild Card: Tiffany Haddish, Girls’ Trip
Best Supporting Actor
Once again this is likely a category that features six people going for five slots, but it seems much tidier. Sam Rockwell is going to win this category, and so a nomination for him is not in question. Willem Dafoe was at one time the favorite in this category, and is the only person who could beat Rockwell, so he too is in. Richard Jenkins has the accolades and the power house movie behind him in The Shape of Water to get this nomination, while Christopher Plummer as the prime example of Hollywood blackballing Kevin Spacey is getting a spot as well. The final spot is between Armie Hammer and Woody Harrelson. Harrelson gave what is actually the best supporting performance in Three Billboards, but is likely getting squeezed out so the Academy can honor Hammer for his work in Call Me By Your Name, a film to which Hammer is very important. If we happened to live in the universe where cool things happen, there is the slightest chance that Patrick Stewart could get nominated for his work in Logan, but I highly doubt we live in that universe.
Predicted Nominees:
- Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
- Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
- Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
- Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Next Up: Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Wild Cards: Patrick Stewart, Logan (holding on to the dream for a bit longer)
Best Original Screenplay
This category has become somewhat tidy, even if it is stacked, as basically all the Best Picture nominees this year seem to have Original Screenplays. That makes four of the nominees rather easy. The top of the likely Best Picture nominees are Three Billboards, The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, and Get Out, so chances are all four are getting Oscar nominations for their scripts. The last spot is where the intrigue begins. Phantom Thread got some early awards, and the Academy tends to love Paul Thomas Anderson, but the script failed to get a WGA or BAFTA nomination. I, Tonya got both BAFTA and WGA nominations and seems likely to get a Best Picture nom. The Post has not really gotten any nominations so far, but is a clear Best Picture nominee, so it could slip into this slot. Coco could have a chance based on Pixar’s track record with getting nominations in this category, but ultimately this is going to The Big Sick, either as a way to get it honored in some real way or because it is getting the Best Picture nomination I think it is getting. This would confirm that.
Predicted Nominees:
- Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
- Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
- Jordan Peele, Get Out
- Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Next Best Bet: I, Tonya Steven Rogers
Wild Card: Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Best Adapted Screenplay
What a change in fortune. Usually the Original Screenplay category is the one that allows for some intriguing and unique nominations, but with so many Best Picture contenders in that category there is not much room for surprises. Meanwhile, only Call Me By Your Name exists in this category as a sure nominee. Add in Molly’s Game because of Aaron Sorkin’s pedigree, but the rest of the slots are wide open. This offers another way for the Academy to honor Mudbound without giving it a Best Picture nomination, and a way to offer some sort of honor to The Disaster Artist without having to honor James Franco. Most intriguingly, this allows this category to honor a super hero genre film in the form of Logan or Wonder Woman. Logan has the better script, but Wonder Woman offers the most cultural impact and a high profile nomination the Academy can hang its hat on. Then there is Wonder, which has its fair share of fans, and could slide in because the Academy loves stories about cute kids. It also could allow for a way to honor The Last Jedi, since critics love that film so much. This is one of the most wide open categories, in terms of options that could go a lot of different ways. I am going with the one that lets Logan get some sort of recognition after being forgotten.
Predicted Nominees:
- James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
- Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game
- Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green, Logan
- Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
- Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, Mudbound
Next Best Bet: Jack Thorne, Steve Conrad, Stephen Chbosky, Wonder
Wild Card: Allan Heinberg, Zack Snyder, Jason Fuchs, Wonder Woman
Best Animated Film
Sigh… even if the results of last year were mostly predictable, at least it was a stacked year full of multiple legitimately great movies. Now we are stuck with this year, where it is much less good. There is Coco, which is going to win, and then after that, well, the one good thing about this being a weak year for animation is that there is a good chance that the Academy will be forced to recognize some less mainstream animated films (assuming once again this is a real category, which is still only a year by year assessment). That is why The Breadwinner and Loving Vincent are going to get nominated. Then we are left with some chaos. The Lego Batman Movie is likely to be a good way to honor more mainstream animation, and allow the Academy to nominate a Lego movie after the rules for the category were changed following The Lego Movie‘s failure to get a nomination.
Then it comes down to a couple things. Can the Academy nominate a Japanese film that is not made by Studio Ghibli (seeing as Satoshi Kon is no longer with us in the mortal coil)? If it can, then there are two strong candidates: Mary and the Witch’s Flower and In This Corner of the World. Mary and the Witch’s Flower is basically a Miyazaki film made by another studio, and would allow the Academy to basically admit that they think Miyazaki is a genre of movie and not a director. In This Corner of the World, meanwhile, is a touching look at the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, so it has no chance of getting nominated. After that, it just depends on how much the Academy wants this to be a category versus something that is just for what voters’ kids watch. So in that case there is Ferdinand and… The Boss Baby. Or if they really want to surprise us, there is Bird Boy: The Forgotten Children, which, well, will not happen, but I am deciding to once again somewhat trust the Academy here, so Mary and the Witch’s Flower it is.
Predicted Nominees:
- Coco
- The Breadwinner
- Loving Vincent
- The Lego Batman Movie
- Mary and the Witch’s Flower
If This Was a Real Category, Next Best Bet: In This Corner of The World
Because This May Be a Joke Category (yeah, this will never not be a fear of mine): The Boss Baby
Wild Card: Ferdinand
Best Cinematography
This category is striking for a couple of reasons this year. One, this is shaping up to finally be Roger Deakins’ year, which is a big deal, but the bigger deal is that the first woman ever is likely heading to a nomination. Rachel Morrison has already secured a nomination from the cinematographers guild, and is likely heading to an Oscar nomination even if the BAFTA snub continues to show that BAFTA sucks. After those two, really at this point it is best just to go with the other guild nominations. So enjoy your nominations, Dan Lausten, Hoyte van Hoytema, and Bruno Delbonnel. Still, this category could have some surprises. Three Billboards‘s Ben Davis got a BAFTA nomination, and is the Best Picture frontrunner, so counting him out would be a mistake. Meanwhile, there is Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, whose work on Call Me By Your Name has been a bit overshadowed, but could get a nomination. Then there is Matthew Jenson’s work on Wonder Woman, which probably won’t get a nomination, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Academy tries to get Wonder Woman as many nominations as possible.
Predicted Nominees:
- Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
- Rachel Morrison, Mudbound
- Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water
- Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk
- Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour
Next Best Bet: Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name
Wild Card: Ben Davis, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Film Editing
The category that holds the fate of Best Picture winners more than most people realize. This year it is stacked with a combination of Best Picture and non-Best Picture nominees. First, we got some easy nominations in The Shape of Water and Dunkirk, because the Academy loves themselves some fantasy and war movies when it comes to editing. The fact that both are Best Picture nominees is likely a plus. Then things diverge. Three Billboards is kind of a dubious nomination here honestly, but considering what we know about the history of this category when it comes to Best Picture and that Three Billboards is really looking like the favorite there, it is impossible to think it won’t get a nomination, even if I hope it doesn’t–hoping so that the Best Picture race can become interesting again, and so that more deserving nominees can get into Best Editing. Get Out looks to be a solid bet here, because the editing is one of the strongest parts of that movie. Meanwhile, Blade Runner 2049 is likely heading toward a huge number of technical nominations, and this may be the top one. Don’t count out I, Tonya, which is surging in general. The ultimate wild card, however, is Baby Driver, which honestly should be a nominee, and would normally be if, you know, it might very well go down as the last relevant movie that Kevin Spacey was ever a part of. This is kind of sad, but at the same time understandable. Still, if people look past that fact, then Baby Driver is likely getting a nomination, and might be what pushes Three Billboards out (though honestly it would more than likely push out Blade Runner 2049). It also wouldn’t be wise to count either The Post or Call Me By Your Name out, because this is the kind of thing that could give their Best Picture hopes a shot in the arm. Finally, this is another example of a category where Wonder Woman could surprise everyone with a nomination, even if it is unlikely, and it must be said that the Academy tends to like the editing in Star Wars movies, which could give The Last Jedi a chance (even if the editing is probably the worst part of that movie).
Predicted Nominees:
- Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water
- Lee Smith, Dunkirk
- John Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Gregory Plotkin, Get Out
- Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049
Next Best Bet: Tatiana S. Riegel, I, Tonya
Wild Card: Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss, Baby Driver
From here on out, I am just going offer up picks and forgo any analysis; I’ll get into each of these more once I have actual nominations, as for now I don’t have enough information to offer up analysis that won’t become redundant when I write about the actual nominations.
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
- Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
- Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
- Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
- Dario Marianelli, Darkest Hour
- Rupert Gregson-Williams, Wonder Woman
Next Best Bet: John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Wild Card: Benjamin Wallfisch, Hans Zimmer, Blade Runner 2049
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
- In the Fade
- The Square
- Loveless
- A Fantastic Woman
- Foxtrot
Next Best Bet: The Wound
Wild Card: The Insult
Best Documentary
Predicted Nominees:
- Jane
- City of Ghosts
- Icarus
- Chasing Coral
- Last Men in Aleppo
Next Best Bet: LA 92
Wild Card: The Inconvenient Sequel
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
- “This is Me” (The Greatest Showman)
- “Remember Me” (Coco)
- “Evermore” (Beauty and the Beast)
- “The Mystery of Love” (Call Me By Your Name)
- “Stand Up For Something” (Marshall)
Next Best Bet: “Mighty River” (Mudbound)
Wild Card: “Home” Ferdinand
Best Production Design:
Predicted Nominees:
- Paul Austerberry, Jeff Melvin, Shane Vieau, The Shape of Water
- Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola, Blade Runner 2049
- Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer, Beauty and the Beast
- Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis, Dunkirk
- Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer, Darkest Hour
Next Best Bet: Mark Tildesley, Véronique Melery, Phantom Thread
Wild Card: Aline Bonetto, Wonder Woman
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
- Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
- Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast
- Lindy Hemming, Wonder Woman
- Luis Sequeira, The Shape of Water
- Ellen Mirojnick, The Greatest Showman
Next Best Bet: Renée April, Blade Runner 2049
Wild Card: Alexandra Byrne, Murder on the Orient Express
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
- David Malinowski, Ivana Primorac, Lucy Sibbick, Kazuhiro Tsuji, Darkest Hour
- Camille Friend, Louisa Anthony, Jules Holdren, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
- Wonder
Next Best Bet: Deborah La Mia Denaver, Teresa Vest, Bill Myer, I, Tonya
Wild Card: Alessandro Bertolazzi, Cristina Waltz, Judy Murdock, Bright
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
- Dunkirk
- Baby Driver
- Blade Runner 2049
- The Shape of Water
- Wonder Woman
Next Best Bet: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Wild Card: War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
- Dunkirk
- Baby Driver
- Blade Runner 2049
- The Shape of Water
- The Greatest Showman
Next Best Bet: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Wild Card: War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
- Blade Runner 2049
- The Shape of Water
- Dunkirk
- War for the Planet of the Apes
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Next Best Bet: Wonder Woman
Wild Card: Thor: Ragnorak
Once again, it must be said that there is really no good way to look at the shorts categories before there are actual nominations, because watching shorts is rather difficult unless you just go to loads of festivals, and analysis of these categories doesn’t really begin in earnest until the nominations are announced. Outside of some of the animated shorts, I haven’t seen anything, and really just have the shortlists to work with. More so than any others, these predictions are simply my best guess, after looking over numerous predictions by more qualified people and discerning the best mix of their advice.
Best Animated Short
Predicted Nominees:
- Dave Mullins, Lou
- Glen Keane, Dear Basketball
- Esteban Bravo and Beth David, In a Heartbeat
- Devon Manney, Cradle
- Max Porter and Ru Kuwahata, Negative Space
Next Best Bet: Robin Joseph, Fox and the Whale
Wild Card: Victor Caire and Gabriel Grapperon, Garden Party
Best Documentary Short
Predicted Nominees:
- Alone
- Heroin(e)
- Edith+Eddie
- Ten Meter Tower
- Knife Skills
Next Best Bet: Traffic Stop
Wild Card: 116 Cameras
Best Live Action Short
Predicted Nominees:
- Chris Overton, The Silent Child
- Katja Benrath, Watu Wote/All of Us
- Reed Van Dyk, DeKalb Elementary
- James Bort, Rise of a Star
- Kevin Wilson Jr., My Nephew Emmett
Next Best Bet: Sean Meehan, Lost Face
Wild Card: Jan-Eric Mack, Facing Mecca
That’s it! We’ll see fairly shortly how well these predictions came out, and then it will finally be time to starting predicting winners instead of simply nominees!