The Golden Globes have come and gone once again, in a much more somber affair than usual. (You can see my thoughts here.) Now that we have most of the information we will have before the Oscar nominations are released on January 23rd, it is time to see where the 2018 Oscar race currently stands. I am not going to weigh in on every Oscar category (because for some it’s just better at this point to examine them once we know the actual nominations), but we are close to a decent understanding of a lot of categories, so let’s see where we are at this point as we continue Oscarathon 2018. You can see my initial thoughts here to get an idea of how much things have changed after this latest slew of nominations and awards shows.
Best Picture
Hello to our new frontrunner!
We have a new leader, at least for now, as no one has had a better stretch recently than Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, starting with a dominant four wins at the Golden Globes, including Best Drama Picture, Best Leading Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Screenplay. Three Billboards followed this with DGA and PGA nominations, and five nominations and two wins at the AACTA Awards, including Best Film and once again Best Screenplay. Followed by nine nominations from the BAFTAs. Add in that Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell have become the favorites in the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor categories, and things are looking good for Three Billboards right now.
The two biggest factors going for Three Billboards right now (other than the fact that it is winning Best Picture awards in general) is that it is doing quite well in the Screenplay category and has a good chance at an Editing nomination. As has been mentioned before, the Screenplay Oscar has become possibly the best indicator of the ultimate Best Picture winner (not only in terms of needing just a nomination to normally get consideration, but since the beginning of this century, actually winning a Screenplay Oscar has proven nearly essential as well), and at this time Three Billboards has been racking up enough wins to show that it is the favorite to win. Especially considering the film it tends to have lost to so far, when that actually happens, is The Phantom Thread, which just hasn’t been able to pick up the steam you would expect from a Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Day-Lewis film.
The editing case is not quite as clear cut as Three Billboards. While it does have both a BAFTA and Eddie nomination, this is a rather crowded editing year, and you could easily see it getting lost in the shuffle. Still, this Editing nomination is vital, as the last film to win without even an Editing nomination is Ordinary People in 1980 (every time I have to write this, I die a little inside, as Ordinary People‘s win continues to make every other winner of an Oscar feel worse merely by association). If a Screenplay nomination doesn’t happen, that would definitely be a blow to this film’s Best Picture chances, but knowing the Academy’s track record, it likely will get this nomination, and more fully embrace the frontrunner role.
Unlike last year at this time, when La La Land was an overwhelming favorite (which obviously ended up mattering little, but still), Three Billboards is at best a slight favorite. Lady Bird is still here and looking strong. The favorite before the Globes had a good night, winning Best Comedy/Musical Picture and Best Leading Actress in a Comedy/Musical. It also picked up DGA, PGA, and WGA nominations, as well as five AACTA nominations (though no wins). Combined with its previous success, Lady Bird has quite a bit of positives going for it, and its profile at this point is somewhat similar to where Moonlight was last year.
That said, Lady Bird is starting to get a lot of evidence mounting against it. Outside of the Globes it has been losing Best Picture races recently (and even then, it didn’t face either Three Billboards or The Shape of Water); Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf have lost a lot of steam in their perspective races and now find themselves firmly behind other favorites in the Lead Actress and Supporting Actress category; while getting Screenplay nominations, the script keeps losing to other movies lately; and it is almost assuredly not going to get an Editing nomination (it did get an Eddie nomination, but that feels like a courtesy in the Comedy category, so it is hard to believe that will lead to much). Then there are the BAFTAs, which only gave Lady Bird three nominations and snubbed the film in Best Picture and Best Director. This is troubling, although I am once again having some difficulty deciding how much credence I should put into this, because, well, the BAFTAs have, let’s just say, some troubling history when it comes to honoring women and minorities properly (just look at Moonlight last year). But three is still not a lot compared to other contenders. Ultimately, however, this may be the best place for Lady Bird to be in, as now that it is no longer the perceived frontrunner, it may be able to avoid the intense scrutiny and potential huge backlash frontrunners often draw, which could allow it to win in the end, just like Moonlight.
The last of the big contenders at this point is The Shape of Water. After this Globes, I said that unless something changed quickly, I would have a hard time seeing anything other than Three Billboards and Lady Bird winning at this point. The Shape of Water answered this challenge by having a fairly good Critics’ Choice Awards, where it led the field with 14 nominations and four wins, including Best Picture and Best Director. Add in its PGA, WGA, and DGA nominations (and the fact that Guillermo del Toro is the favorite to win Best Director as of now), plus three AACTA nominations and a leading 12 BAFTA nominations, and this film has made sure it stays in the forefront of Best Picture discussions.
It is very likely that The Shape of Water will not only lead in overall Oscar nominations, but it has an outside chance of actually breaking the nominations record with 15 or more, realistically tying the record like La La Land did last year with 14. Even if it only ends up with 12, like at the BAFTAs, that is still going to loom very large come Oscar time, especially considering these nominations will cover directing, screenwriting, acting, and editing–so unlike Lady Bird and Three Billboards, it is not going to have to sweat out an Editing nomination. Still, the subject matter and genre of this film make it hard to truly invest in its Best Picture chances at this time, as this film feels a lot like Mad Max: Fury Road, which always stayed in the Best Picture discussion but was never able to quite get over the hump as things went along. Of course, The Shape of Water has many advantages over Mad Max: Fury Road, but their cases feel very similar right now, at least until The Shape of Water wins at least one other major award (such as let’s say the DGAs). The other issue is that, unlike Three Billboards and Lady Bird, this film was not able to secure a SAG nomination. That is very troubling, even if it did get Actress and Supporting Actor nominations.
At this point, much like last year at this time, it appears to be a three film race, in terms of films that could realistically win at this point. The rest of the films feel very much just happy to be nominated, with one possible exception–Get Out, which if nothing else could have a Hidden Figures moment that makes people think about whether it has a real shot winning. Get Out has scored nominations with the DGA, PGA, SAG, and the Eddies. It also got two nominations from AACTA. Now, Get Out needs to win something for this to be a real conversation, but it does have the advantage of being a SAG nominee and having a real chance to to get some buzz, much like Hidden Figures did last year when it won the top SAG prize. Get Out also has the advantage of already being one of the buzziest films of the year, one that was a huge part of the cultural conversation for much of 2017. Still, this is a long shot, as likely this is probably one of the many films this year that will get lots of nominations but end up not winning anything. But if there is any film that could force itself into the Best Picture conversation along with the aforementioned big three, then Get Out is that movie.
Once we get past Get Out, we have left the realm of films that could conceivably win the big prize, but there are three more films that are pretty close to nomination locks at this point, even if none of them has a real chance of winning right now.
Dunkirk has been able to hang around, and is likely going to be the film that finally gets Christopher Nolan a Best Director Oscar nomination. With PGA, DGA, and Eddie nominations, as well as eight BAFTA nominations and four AACTA nominations (including a win for Christopher Nolan), Dunkirk is a pretty near lock for a nomination. It just doesn’t have the ceiling that Get Out has, because it lacks a SAG nomination and the possibility of a Screenplay nomination, so that places it a bit lower on the totem pole, unless it can pull off an unexpected victory at the BAFTAs.
The Post has lost a lot of steam, but still got a PGA nomination and has that Spielberg, Streep, and Hanks magic that will likely clinch a nomination even if this film has no chance of winning (basically the standard spot for every Spielberg film since Saving Private Ryan, give or take the brief fervor over Lincoln).
Call Me By Your Name has plummeted as it went from a co-favorite before the Globes to a film that will likely just be honored to be nominated, but not win anything. The film is heading toward a Best Picture nomination at this time, with a PGA nomination, five AACTA nominations, and four BAFTA nominations. Add in a WGA nomination, and a likely Screenplay nomination in the much weaker Adapted writing category this year, and this film is a near lock for a nomination, but for a film that seemed to have much higher aspirations recently this new status is a bit of a disappointment.
After these seven, we have left the realm of likely nominees, and ended up more in the realm of possible nominees, which could be an especially big deal this year, because honestly it is hard to see more than eight films getting a nomination (honestly, it may be hard to see more than seven), so it is very likely that the rest of these films are fighting for one spot, unless the Academy really breaks with tradition this year. So here are the rest of the films that have a realistic shot.
I, Tonya feels like the clubhouse leader for this likely last spot. It got a a PGA nomination, WGA nomination, five BAFTA nominations, and two wins at the AACTAs for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. More importantly, Allison Janney has become the favorite for Best Supporting Actress, so this film feels like it has a bit of an edge over the rest of this list.
The Big Sick is the hardest film to get a read on. It got a PGA nomination, WGA nomination, and even a SAG nomination, but has lacked support in most other places. This makes it hard to predict what will happen with this film at this point. It has a good case, but I do wonder if enough people loved this film instead of merely really liking it.
Molly’s Game is where we really start reaching, but this film did get a PGA nomination, WGA nomination, and an Eddie nomination. It can’t be counted out, but this feels like a long shot.
Wonder Woman is even more of a long shot, as its claim to fame is its PGA nomination and the fact that other than Get Out nothing had quite the cultural impact as Wonder Woman this year. Much like Deadpool last year, the fact that this film is being mentioned in this spot is a victory in itself.
Then there is one film that has really lost a lot of steam, The Florida Project, which really fits the indie film profile that the Academy loves. It has been a bit left behind in the latest award cycles, to the point that it likely won’t make the cut, but I at least can’t shake the feeling that it could slip in.
And that is it really at this point. Mudbound could make some noise, but it only has a SAG nomination to hold onto at this point, and likely will have to be content with what would be an historic Cinematography nomination. I guess you can’t totally count Darkest Hour out, considering it did get nine BAFTA nominations (though, I mean, they may be a bit biased in this particular case). Pixar seems pretty content to just get the Animation category with Coco and not push for anything more, and there is just not enough of a consensus with the Foreign Films for anyone to get behind one. There has been a bit of a late run of publicity for Hostiles as it tries to pull off a miracle nomination, but that is almost certainly going to fall short. It is also a shame that Logan is likely not going to get the recognition it deserves, but those are the breaks. (The same goes for Blade Runner 2049, particularly after Arrival did so well last year. – Ed)
Ultimately, I think we are heading toward eight nominations, with seven being the floor. There seems to be a bit more consensus over films this year than usual, so that might make the nominations themselves a bit more anticlimactic.
Favorites: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water
Surprise Contender: Get Out
Near Lock for Nominations: Call Me By Your Name, The Post, Dunkirk
Contenders for Nominations: I, Tonya, Molly’s Game, Wonder Woman, The Big Sick, The Florida Project
Best Director
Can Peele keep up the momentum and pull off a nomination?
Much like last year, this feels like a two-man race at this point, but in accordance with this year’s theme, the race has a higher chance of variance. Only Guillermo del Toro and Christopher Nolan at this point feel like absolute locks. Del Toro won the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Award, and scored DGA, BAFTA, and AACTA nominations. This makes him the current favorite, but Nolan isn’t as far behind as you might think, considering he has pulled off DGA and BAFTA nominations and a win at the AACTAs. So if nothing else, Nolan is perfectly positioned to win if del Toro experiences backlash for existing, or whatever other bullshit will surely come up during the Oscar race, because what else do people have to do? For now, del Toro is the definite favorite, as it kind of feels like a lot of people are using del Toro’s first prestige film in quite some time as an excuse to pay him back for everyone being a bit too slow to realize how amazing Pan’s Labyrinth is. The only thing going against these two right now is that the director’s branch of the Academy is weird and does stupid things a lot of the time.
After those two, it can’t be said with absolute certainty who else will get nominated, but there are two people that stand above the rest of the pack, because if they get nominated, they could actually win. The first is Greta Gerwig, who recovered from her Golden Globes snub with DGA and AACTA nominations. Though she was snubbed by BAFTA (once again, much like Barry Jenkins last year), the fact that she is helming one of the Best Picture favorites is likely to play heavily into her favor. If she gets this nomination there is a very good chance she will become the second woman ever to win, because Hollywood is very much primed to award women as much as possible this year. The key here is if she gets nominated, because the director’s branch has had mixed feelings about awarding performers that become directors (just ask Ben Affleck), unless they are Mel Gibson or Kevin Costner. (Or Clint Eastwood. – Ed) How much the history against voting for a female nominee plays against Gerwig remains to be seen, but the director’s branch is weird and it is not out of the realm of possibility for it to fail to nominate her.
Then there is Martin McDonagh, who is trending toward a nomination after DGA, BAFTA, and AACTA nominations. The only thing that really factors against him at this point is that the director’s branch somewhat loathes to reward hyphenate directors, especially on the writing side. But that generally shows up in not letting these directors win, as opposed to not nominating them, so considering how large of a Big Picture threat Three Billboards is at this time, it would be really difficult to see McDonagh not getting a nomination. If he does get the nom, he has a shot of winning if Three Billboards pulls off a huge haul of Oscars, but he is not a lock like del Toro and Nolan, and even if he does get a nomination, it feels like he has less of a chance of winning than Gerwig if she gets nominated.
After these four things, get really messy. Jordan Peele got a major boost with his DGA nomination, but the problem is that while the DGA winner generally matches the Oscar winners, the nominees themselves rarely line up perfectly (the last time it happened was 2010), so considering his award precursors compared to the other four DGA nominees are not nearly as strong, he is the most vulnerable to being swapped out for a different nominee at the actual Oscars.
Which leads us to the rest of the pile. Luca Guadagnino has a lot going for him with AACTA and BAFTA nominations, but considering the lack of momentum for his Call Me By Your Name as a whole at this point compared to other films, it is hard to be confident about him. Steven Spielberg was expected to be much more a part of the awards consideration so far than he has been (which really could be said for The Post in general… maybe make a movie that is interesting the whole time instead of half the film and we can talk, Spielberg). But considering the Academy’s love for Spielberg he could easily find his way into the ultimate nominees. Then there is Sean Baker, who has had some early success this season, but likely is going to get crowded out of this category, especially considering his film, The Florida Project, is finding itself getting crowded out of the Best Picture category; but he does benefit from getting a great performance out of a child actor, which the Academy has historically been a great fan of. Denis Villeneuve is a past nominee who pulled off a BAFTA nom so he cannot be counted out. Craig Gillespie was able to get an AACTA nomination, so he can’t be completely counted out of it either. Then there is Ridley Scott, who gets to be mentioned at all times in these things because he is Ridley Scott. I guess he has earned that right.
So once again this is a rather packed category that is going to leave someone out that most people feel should be nominated, and that is not even counting people like Patty Jenkins and James Mangold who are not even getting mentioned at this point, or Edgar Wright whose movie was murdered by having Kevin Spacey in it. Still, it does kind of feel like the Academy could temper a lot of outrage if it just nominated the DGA nominees–not to mention that would avoid the inevitable shit show that will unfold when Peele or Gerwig are left out and everyone loses their collective minds.
Nomination Locks: Guillermo del Toro, Christopher Nolan
Near Locks: Martin McDonaugh, Greta Gerwig
Contenders: Jordan Peele, Luca Guadagnino, Steven Spielberg, Sean Baker, Ridley Scott (I guess), Denis Villeneuve, Craig Gillespie
Best Actress
Robbie surges towards those in front of her at the moment.
There has been a lot of clarity from these recent awards–namely, that Francis McDormand is now the clear favorite after her multiple wins at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. Add in nominations with both BAFTA and AACTA and Three Billboards‘ general ascendancy, and she has moved into the top position, looks like a heavy favorite right now, and is likely heading toward a second Oscar.
While not as stacked as in the last couple of years, this is a rather strong category, and much like her movie Lady Bird is nipping at Three Billboards’ heels, Saoirse Ronan is lingering and ready to steal steam from McDormand with a win or two. Ronan won the other Best Actress Globe, and also picked up a nomination from both BAFTA and AACTA. Ronan also had some earlier wins over McDormand, so it is very possible this could flip, even if McDormand is looking rather dominant right now. If nothing else, Ronan is assured of a nomination at this point.
Also assured of a nomination at this point is Sally Hawkins, who is coasting off of BAFTA and AACTA nominations, and the fact that The Shape of Water is primed to be a real Best Picture contender. Hawkins is definitely behind both McDormand and Ronan right now, but she still should coast into a nomination unless the Academy suddenly sours on The Shape of Water.
The biggest mover at this point is probably Margot Robbie, who has found both herself and her movie I, Tonya rising recently. She pulled off a somewhat surprising win at AACTA (I say somewhat, because, well, AACTA tends to favor Australian performers when things are somewhat close) as well as a BAFTA nomination. She even beat Ronan for Best Comedy Actress at the Critics’ Choice Awards, so she is on a good run. I wouldn’t say she is quite the lock that the women already mentioned are. but she is pretty close to one, especially because this year is not as stacked as the past couple of years have been, so she has much less competition.
Then there is Meryl Streep, who is Meryl Streep, and I am almost at the point where I just pencil her in pretty much no matter what, but this year she is also teaming up with perennial Oscar favorites Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks. It would be hard to see her left out, but unlike past years she has not gotten as much support as you would expect, which fits with what is happening with The Post in general. Streep picked up a Globes and Critics’ nomination, but not a BAFTA or AACTA nomination. She also didn’t get a SAG nomination, so this might be a year that Streep is overlooked, but the Academy’s track record kind of suggests the opposite of this possibility; she is likely going to get in despite a shaky profile compared to most years.
If Streep fails to get a nomination, it would seem like that instead it would go to Judi Dench, who picked up both SAG and AACTA nominations over Streep. Dench, being a well-respected former winner and also Judi Dench, might be one of the only actresses that could have the clout to knock Streep out of a nomination. The problem is, unlike The Post, Dench’s film Victoria and Abdul is not a real Best Picture contender, and that might ultimately cost Dench in the end.
After that, things are a bit murkier. Annette Bening pulled off a BAFTA nomination, but that seems like a weird BAFTA decision even if Bening likely deserved a deeper look for her role in Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool. So that leaves Jessica Chastain, who always lingers in this awards conversation, but doesn’t yet seem to have the clout to force her way into nominations quite yet. Chastain did get a Critics’ Choice nomination, and Molly’s Game did get a PGA nomination and has an outside shot at a Best Picture nomination, so that could help her a lot. Still, really it feels like this is a two-way race for the last spot between Streep and Dench.
Nomination Locks: Francis McDormand, Saoirse Ronan, Sally Hawkins
Near Lock: Margot Robbie
Contenders: Meryl Streep, Judi Dench, Jessica Chastain, Annette Bening
Best Actor
Once again, the lack of depth in the category is kind of annoying, but the top five in this category are quite strong, which is why we may already know the five nominations at this point.
Is this finally Oldman’s time?
The new frontrunner is Gary Oldman, who has picked up wins at the Golden Globes for Best Dramatic Actor, the Critics’ Choice Award, and the AACTA Award as well as a BAFTA nomination. After years of coming close, this is finally looking to be Oldman’s year, and it may not really be that close. While this category lacks depth, the actual five likely nominees are really strong, so Oldman has a lot of competition.
The first of which is Daniel Day-Lewis in his final role. Buffered by a BAFTA and AACTA nomination and the fact that most people think he is greatest actor alive, you cannot count him out, even if so far he has not been able to really win much yet. This still feels like it could switch very quickly, or even just at the Oscars, as you wonder if the pressure to honor Day-Lewis in his last film will prove too much for many.
Next there is Timothée Chalamet, who unlike Day-Lewis has actually won quite a bit before Oldman went on his recent hot streak during the most important awards. Chalamet picked up BAFTA and AACTA nominations, and will have plenty of chances to go up against Oldman going forward, just like Day-Lewis will, but he is just so young. Even as a nominee, Chalamet would be an aberration for this category, and him winning would shatter the record for the previous youngest winner, as I outlined in my last post. While this would cause me more pause in a year with a deeper pool of nominees, the fact that it is hard to see who would take his place makes him a likely nominee even if it is hard to see him winning at this point.
Then there is the surging Daniel Kaluuya, who added a BAFTA and AACTA nomination to his SAG and Golden Globe nominations, and now looks like he is going to snag a nomination, which could be a real boon to Get Out as a whole. He has no chance of winning, but his nomination would be quite a victory at this point, particularly for a genre whose performances typically go unrecognized.
Finally, we have the spot that seemed to be an absolute lock a couple of weeks ago with James Franco, who won Best Comedy/ Musical Actor award at the Globes and got a SAG nomination, and honestly looked like a sleeper pick to win the Oscar period, but since then, he didn’t get either BAFTA or AACTA nominations, and more importantly, he has been hit with quite a bit of bad press over allegations of sexual misconduct. Now, the thing to remember is that the voting for the Oscars ended on January 13, so it is unclear if there was enough time for voters to process this information, or if for many it came after they had already voted, but if this information did get to people before they voted, it could very easily have cost him the nomination. After last year with Casey Affleck, the Academy is likely going to be much more vigilant about not letting someone soiled by allegations such as these being able to come to the Oscars. Especially considering, unlike the Affleck allegations, which strangely didn’t really pick up steam until right before the Oscars themselves, these Franco allegations have caused quite an uproar. It’s possible Franco will be able to use the merit of his performance to still pull off the nomination, but there is no way in hell he is winning now.
The problem, though, is I have no real idea who takes Franco’s place if he doesn’t get into that final five. I mean, Jamie Bell got a BAFTA nomination, but that just feels like a weird BAFTA thing. Hugh Jackman got an AACTA nomination for Logan, but that was most definitely a weird AACTA thing even if I totally support this nomination. So I guess that would leave Tom Hanks for his work in The Post because he is Tom Hanks and someone else has to be nominated here, or Denzel Washington for Roman J. Israel, Esq. as Washington did get a SAG nomination and is Denzel Washington, so no one is going to complain if he gets nominated. Plus, honestly, the real choice should be Adam Sandler for his work in The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected), but whether it was because of the Netflix connection or just general Sandler apathy, he never really took off as a real contender for a nomination. Then there is Claes Bang‘s work in The Square, which is mostly being ignored because subtitles are hard for voters, I guess. So actually, I retract my statement: this isn’t a weak year, it is just weak in terms of the types of performances that the Academy seems willing to consider.
Nomination Locks: Gary Oldman, Daniel Day-Lewis
Near Lock: Timothée Chalamet, James Franco, Daniel Kaluuya
Contenders: …ummm, Jamie Bell, Hugh Jackman (why not?), Tom Hanks, Denzel Washington
Best Supporting Actress
Metcalf has fallen out of the pole position, but don’t count her out just yet.
Things have certainly changed quickly in this race, as Allison Janney is now definitely the favorite in the category after wins at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and AACTAs. Add on her SAG and BAFTA nomination, and Janney has wrested control of the category from Laurie Metcalf, who seemed previously to have a strong lead. Metcalf is still hanging around quite strongly with BAFTA, AACTA, SAG, and Critics’ Choice nominations, and also benefits from being a part of a much stronger Best Picture contender in Lady Bird, so this race isn’t over by any means, but Janney is definitely the frontrunner now.
After those two, Mary J. Blige still feels like a lock at this point for her work in Mudbound. She still has SAG, AACTA, and Critics’ Choice nominations. Plus she did get a Globes nomination, which is much more meaningful, because the supporting categories are not split like the lead categories are. Add in that this is one of the few chances that really make sense to honor Mudbound, and make sure a worthy minority performance gets a nomination, and Blige is looking like a lock–unless the Netflix connection proves to be a problem still.
After those three things get really muddled. As always, AACTA and BAFTA threw some curveballs. AACTA nominated Abbie Cornish, which probably won’t lead to much, but he could benefit from being a part of Three Billboards, so it can’t be discounted. But their nomination for Nicole Kidman, while not exactly undeserved, is definitely a AACTA quirk. Meanwhile, BAFTA gave some love to Lesley Manville, which would mean more if Phantom Thread was getting more Oscar buzz, and continued their love for The Darkest Hour with a nomination for Kristin Scott Thomas. But that super feels like a BAFTA quirk nomination.
So that leaves three more contenders going for those final three spots: Octavia Spencer, Hong Chau, and Holly Hunter. All three got Critic’s Choice nominations. Spencer has Golden Globe and BAFTA nominations, and the fact that she is a part of what is likely to be the most nominated film of this year’s Oscars, The Shape of Water. Hunter has a SAG and Satellite Award nomination and benefits from being in a film that at least has an outside shot of a Best Picture nomination in The Big Sick. Chau, meanwhile, got noms from the Golden Globes, SAG, and Satellite, so she might have the best nomination profile overall of these three. Spencer probably has the edge over the other two simply because of being a past winner and her film being more honored at this point, but none of them really look like a favorite over the others based on what has happened so far.
One other name to look out for is Tiffany Haddish, who also got a Critics’ Choice nomination, and could slip into a spot if a consensus can’t be made between the other three women above her. Now, this is admittedly still a long shot, but it is one that does feel like it could happen to honor her rising star after her turn in Girls Trip.
Nomination Locks: Allison Janney, Laurie Metcalfe
Near Lock: Mary J. Blige
Contenders: Octavia Spencer, Abbie Cornish, Hong Chau, Holly Hunter, Lesley Manville, Kristin Scott Thomas (fine, BAFTAs, you can have this), Nicole Kidman, Tiffany Haddish
Best Supporting Actor
It could still be your year, Dafoe, so don’t fret.
Yeah, so, like, seriously, how things can really change. Before the Globes, the only sure thing seemed to be that Willem Dafoe was heading towards his first Oscar win, and that may still be the case, considering he still has SAG, BAFTA, and Satellite nominations on top of his Golden Globes and AACTA nominations; but he is no longer the frontrunner after Sam Rockwell racked up wins at the Golden Globes, AACTA, and the Critics’ Choice Awards. This goes along with Rockwell’s BAFTA and Satellite nominations and his connection to the rising Three Billboards to make him the clear favorite at this time, especially as Dafoe’s own movie, The Florida Project, seems to be getting lost in the shuffle. Regardless, both of these men are locks for nominations at this point.
After those two, the next closest contender is Richard Jenkins, who is a near lock with nominations from SAG, the Critics’ Choice Awards and the Golden Globes, plus being a part of the nomination monster that The Shape of Water seems like it will be. Jenkins lacks a BAFTA, AACTA, and Satellite nomination, so he isn’t as near a lock as the two men above him.
After that there is Christopher Plummer, who at this point only has a Golden Globe nomination, but more importantly has the “he was brought in to specifically replace Kevin Spacey because Kevin Spacey is never working in Hollywood again” glow, which I just can’t see not being enough to get him a nomination. Like, he isn’t a lock at this point, and plenty of other places have failed to honor him, but the Oscars likely will get him a nomination, especially since this will give everyone a chance to once again marvel at how great Christopher Plummer is.
After these four, it is (not surprisingly) a bit of a mess. AACTA once again made some out there picks with Tom Hardy in Dunkirk and Ben Mendelsohn in The Darkest Hour, but it is hard to believe either has a real chance of a nomination. So next up, we have what is likely to be a showdown between Woody Harrelson and Armie Hammer. Harrelson got the SAG and BAFTA nominations, while Hammer got a Golden Globe, Satellite, Critics’ Choice, and AACTA nomination. It is a bit hard to really tell which matters more at this point. Harrelson definitely has a greater momentum with his film at the moment with Three Billboards, but Hammer benefits from being a much bigger part of his film, Call Me By Your Name. So it is a bit of a toss-up at this point and could go either way.
After those two, there are also a couple of longshots. Michael Shannon got a Satellite nomination, and could benefit if the Academy gets really nomination happy for The Shape of Water. Shannon’s co-star Michael Stuhlbarg could possibly benefit from giving strong performances in both The Shape of Water and Call Me By Your Name, but probably neither of them have the juice for a nomination at this point. So the real person with an outside chance of a nomination is Patrick Stewart for his work in Logan. This, along with Adapted Screenplay, might be the only real chances for the academy to give some sort of justifiable love to Logan, so Stewart could slip in for a nomination, much like he did at the Critics’ Choice Awards.
Nomination Locks: Sam Rockwell, Willem Dafoe
Near Lock: Richard Jenkins, Christopher Plummer
Contenders: Woody Harrelson, Armie Hammer, Tom Hardy, Ben Mendelsohn, Michael Shannon, Patrick Stewart, Michael Stuhlbarg
I am a bit more behind than I have been in the past, so look for the rest of my thoughts when I write my more beefed up Oscar nomination prediction thread for all of the categories.