Oscarathon 2018: Golden Globes Predictions

So here we are, time for the first substantial domino in the awards season with the 2018 Golden Globes. As always, I could offer some real well-thought out predictions over what will happen, but instead I am just going to throw some shit at a wall, because the Hollywood Foreign Press is a silly group that makes silly decisions. So, well, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Let’s just do this.

• This feels like a showdown between The Shape of Water and Call Me by Your Names. The Shape of Water leads in nominations, and feels like it is trending towards a Globes win, but Call Me by Your Name could certainly take this and really ramp up its Oscar campaign. Still, the siren song of The Post is strong and the combination of Streep, Hanks, and Spielberg could easily win the Hollywood Foreign Press over.

• Another tight race. Lady Bird has the best profile for award pedigree right now, but Get Out was a cultural phenomenon, and the HFPA could easily decide that they will make a statement by honoring it before anyone else really has. I don’t think even the Globes would actually pick The Great Showman, but they love that movie more than anyone else, and weirder things have happened.

• This is a pretty stacked category where pretty much everyone except for Michelle Williams could realistically win, unless the HFPA loses its mind over her movie. Chastain doesn’t have the buzz right now, and Streep, while being Meryl Streep, also seems to be behind buzz-wise right now, so that leaves Hawkins and McDormand. HFPA seems to love The Shape of Water more, so Hawkins has the edge right now.

• This is a showdown between Day-Lewis and Chalamet. Chalamet has the newness factor that the HFPA loves, but I kind of need to see him beat Day-Lewis in a major award show before I am willing to fully jump on this bandwagon.

• Look, Robbie could make a real run here, but Ronan feels like the surest bet for Lady Bird the entire night.

• With Greta Gerwig getting inexplicably left out of this category, this is Del Toro’s category to lose. Unless, as will be a common theme, the Globes does something crazy with All The Money in the World, or, you know, this is finally the year Christopher Nolan gets all the awards.

• This is a tough one. Picking between Kaluuya and Franco is tough because both were so good, but this feels like the best category to give an award to Get Out, unless the Globes’ love for The Greatest Showman gets in the way.

• This is a solid category without really a bad choice. Chau’s performance seems a level below the rest, honestly, but then again she is also in the worst movie of the group, so maybe that hurts her a lot. Metcalf has been winning so far and there is no reason to pick against her at this point.

• Look, Dafoe should win this category easily, with maybe a late run from Richard Jenkins, but the real issue here is Christopher Plummer. The narrative for him is just so strong, and everyone loves Plummer. Still, if Plummer beats Dafoe it has less to do with how good Plummer is and more that this is the latest middle finger Hollywood can give to Kevin Spacey.

• This is more of a vote of confidence for The Shape of Water‘s prospects at the Globes as a whole, really, because it is kind of hard to tell how much value should be given to this score, considering how much already existing music is in the movie. But at this point the film still feels like the best bet.

• It would be a very Globes thing to give Aaron Sorkin an award so he can blather on about whatever, but Lady Bird or Three Billboards are the real contenders in this category.

• Umm, look, The Square is probably going to win, but who the hell knows? These are all good choices.

• Even the Globes can’t really do anything weird here. Coco will win because Pixar/Disney always wins, especially when the films are actually good. Moving along.

• Let’s be clear: “This Is Me” is a good song that is deserving of winning, but this is more just a commentary on the weirdness of how much more the HFPA loves The Greatest Showman than everyone else. Still, watch out for “Remember Me,” because it could easily win this as well.

• If this was the Emmys, Game of Thrones would easily win, but the Globes has never been all that enamored with GoT compared to everyone else. This is the moment of The Handmaid’s Tale, however, and it probably wins unless the HFPA love for The Crown is just too much to overcome.

• I am on the Handmaid’s Tale train, so team Elisabeth Moss here. Still, it is kind of surprising Balfe hasn’t won a Globe yet, so she could win, and Langford is the shiniest and newest of this group, so she can’t be counted out.

• Yeah, let’s keep this simple. Bateman gets points for a strong against-type performance, and Brown is awesome, but this is a time where the shiny and new will win. Highmore stands out from most of the nominees, so he is going to win.

• Will & Grace returned with a vengeance, and full of political humor that fits well with the HFPA, so even though the Globes has shown a real love for streaming service shows recently in this category, this is likely a year for network television supremacy, even if this feels kind of silly.

• Umm, no matter who is picked here they can’t mess this up. Still, this feels like a showdown between Brosnahan and Shaw as the shiniest and newest actresses in this category. As already mentioned, the Globes really do seem to love streaming services, especially Amazon (even if the Amazon commercials immediately after wins are a bit, umm, suspect), so Brosnahan has the edge.

• Only a crazy person bets against Big Little Lies. Which is why the HFPA will pick The Sinner because ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (I am mostly joking).

• De Niro fits into the movie star box for the Globes, but don’t count out the Globes showing some love to Twin Peaks by giving a trophy to MacLachlan.

• Seriously, no betting against Big Little Lies. Kidman has consistently beat Witherspoon, so I see no reason for that to change. Even if Jessica Biel will look awfully shiny and new to the HFPA.

• Is that an echo? Don’t bet against Big Little Lies.

• Okay this is the one time you could maybe bet against Big Little Lies. Like I am not going to, but Metz could easily win this really screwy category.