Oscarathon 2018: Golden Globes Predictions

In All, Movies, Television by DavidLeave a Comment

So here we are, time for the first substantial domino in the awards season with the 2018 Golden Globes. As always, I could offer some real well-thought out predictions over what will happen, but instead I am just going to throw some shit at a wall, because the Hollywood Foreign Press is a silly group that makes silly decisions. So, well, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Let’s just do this.

Best Motion Picture – Drama
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Dunkirk”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Who Will Win: The Shape of Water
Who Could Win: Call Me by Your Name
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: The Post
  • This feels like a showdown between The Shape of Water and Call Me by Your NamesThe Shape of Water leads in nominations, and feels like it is trending towards a Globes win, but Call Me by Your Name could certainly take this and really ramp up its Oscar campaign. Still, the siren song of The Post is strong and the combination of Streep, Hanks, and Spielberg could easily win the Hollywood Foreign Press over.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
“The Disaster Artist”
“Get Out”
“The Greatest Showman”
“I, Tonya”
“Lady Bird”
Who Will Win: Lady Bird
Who Could Win: Get Out
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: The Greatest Showman
  • Another tight race. Lady Bird has the best profile for award pedigree right now, but Get Out was a cultural phenomenon, and the HFPA could easily decide that they will make a statement by honoring it before anyone else really has. I don’t think even the Globes would actually pick The Great Showman, but they love that movie more than anyone else, and weirder things have happened.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game”
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”
Michelle Williams, “All the Money in the World”
Who Will Win: Sally Hawkins
Who Could Win: Frances McDormad
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Michelle Williams
  • This is a pretty stacked category where pretty much everyone except for Michelle Williams could realistically win, unless the HFPA loses its mind over her movie. Chastain doesn’t have the buzz right now, and Streep, while being Meryl Streep, also seems to be behind buzz-wise right now, so that leaves Hawkins and McDormand. HFPA seems to love The Shape of Water more, so Hawkins has the edge right now.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Tom Hanks, “The Post”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who Could Win: Timothée Chalamet
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Denzel Washington
  • This is a showdown between Day-Lewis and Chalamet. Chalamet has the newness factor that the HFPA loves, but I kind of need to see him beat Day-Lewis in a major award show before I am willing to fully jump on this bandwagon.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Emma Stone, “Battle of the Sexes”
Helen Mirren, “The Leisure Seeker”
Who Will Win: Saoirse Ronan
Who Could Win: Margot Robbie
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Judi Dench
  • Look, Robbie could make a real run here, but Ronan feels like the surest bet for Lady Bird the entire night.
Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”
Ridley Scott, “All The Money in the World”
Steven Spielberg, “The Post”
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro
Who Could Win: Christopher Nolan
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Ridley Scott
  • With Greta Gerwig getting inexplicably left out of this category, this is Del Toro’s category to lose. Unless, as will be a common theme, the Globes does something crazy with All The Money in the World, or, you know, this is finally the year Christopher Nolan gets all the awards.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Steve Carell, “Battle of the Sexes”
Ansel Elgort, “Baby Driver”
James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
Hugh Jackman, “The Greatest Showman”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Who Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Who Could Win: James Franco
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Hugh Jackman
  • This is a tough one. Picking between Kaluuya and Franco is tough because both were so good, but this feels like the best category to give an award to Get Out, unless the Globes’ love for The Greatest Showman gets in the way.
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Hong Chau, “Downsizing”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
Who Will Win: Laurie Metcalf
Who Could Win: Mary J. Blige
If Golden Globes went  full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Hong Chau
  • This is a solid category without really a bad choice. Chau’s performance seems a level below the rest, honestly, but then again she is also in the worst movie of the group, so maybe that hurts her a lot. Metcalf has been winning so far and there is no reason to pick against her at this point.
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Armie Hammer, “Call Me by Your Name”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Who Will Win: Willem Dafoe
Who Could Win: Christopher Plummer
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Christopher Plummer
  • Look, Dafoe should win this category easily, with maybe a late run from Richard Jenkins, but the real issue here is Christopher Plummer. The narrative for him is just so strong, and everyone loves Plummer. Still, if Plummer beats Dafoe it has less to do with how good Plummer is and more that this is the latest middle finger Hollywood can give to Kevin Spacey.
Best Original Score in a Motion Picture
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
“The Shape of Water”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“Dunkirk”
Who Will Win: The Shape of Water
Who Could Win: Phantom Thread
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: The Post
  • This is more of a vote of confidence for The Shape of Water‘s prospects at the Globes as a whole, really, because it is kind of hard to tell how much value should be given to this score, considering how much already existing music is in the movie. But at this point the film still feels like the best bet.
Best Screenplay in a Motion Picture
“The Shape of Water”
“Lady Bird”
“The Post”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
“Molly’s Game”
Who Will Win: Lady Bird
Who Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Molly’s Game
  • It would be a very Globes thing to give Aaron Sorkin an award so he can blather on about whatever, but Lady Bird or Three Billboards are the real contenders in this category.
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
“A Fantastic Woman”
“First They Killed My Father”
“In the Fade”
“Loveless”
“The Square”
Who Will Win: The Square
Who Could Win: Loveless
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Honestly, they can’t make a wrong choice here
  • Umm, look, The Square is probably going to win, but who the hell knows? These are all good choices.
Best Animated Film
“The Boss Baby”
“The Breadwinner”
“Ferdinand”
“Coco”
“Loving Vincent”
Who Will Win: Coco
Who Could Win: Loving Vincent (I mean not really, but sure)
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Boss Baby (even the Globes would never do this)
  • Even the Globes can’t really do anything weird here. Coco will win because Pixar/Disney always wins, especially when the films are actually good. Moving along.
Best Song
“Home” Music by: Nick Jonas, Nick Monson & Justin Tranter, Lyrics by: Jonas & Tranter, Performed by: Jonas – Ferdinand
“Mighty River” Music by: Raphael Saadiq, Lyrics by: Mary J. Blige, Saadiq, & Taura Stinson, Performed by: Blige – Mudbound
“Remember Me” Music & Lyrics by: Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez, Performed by: Benjamin Bratt — Coco
“The Star” Music & Lyrics by: Mariah Carey & Marc Shaiman, Performed by: Carey – The Star
“This Is Me” Music & Lyrics by: Pasek & Paul, Performed by: Keala Settle – The Greatest Showman
Who Will Win: This Is Me
Who Could Win: Remember Me
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: This Is Me
  • Let’s be clear: “This Is Me” is a good song that is deserving of winning, but this is more just a commentary on the weirdness of how much more the HFPA loves The Greatest Showman than everyone else. Still, watch out for “Remember Me,” because it could easily win this as well.
Best TV series – Drama
“The Crown”
“Game of Thrones”
“The Handmaid’s Tale”
“Stranger Things”
“This Is Us”
Who Will Win: The Handmaid’s Tale
Who Could Win: Game of Thrones
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: The Crown (but like not really because this is also good)
  • If this was the Emmys, Game of Thrones would easily win, but the Globes has never been all that enamored with GoT compared to everyone else. This is the moment of The Handmaid’s Tale, however, and it probably wins unless the HFPA love for The Crown is just too much to overcome.
Best performance by Actress in a TV series – Drama
Caitriona Balfe, “Outlander”
Claire Foy, “The Crown”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Deuce”
Katherine Langford, “13 Reasons Why”
Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Who Will Win: Elisabeth Moss
Who Could Win: Caitriona Balfe
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Katherine Langford
  • I am on the Handmaid’s Tale train, so team Elisabeth Moss here. Still, it is kind of surprising Balfe hasn’t won a Globe yet, so she could win, and Langford is the shiniest and newest of this group, so she can’t be counted out.
Best performance by an Actor in a TV Series – Drama
Sterling K. Brown, “This is Us”
Freddie Highmore, “The Good Doctor”
Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan”
Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
Who Will Win: Freddie Highmore
Who Could Win: Sterling Brown
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Jason Bateman
  • Yeah, let’s keep this simple. Bateman gets points for a strong against-type performance, and Brown is awesome, but this is a time where the shiny and new will win. Highmore stands out from most of the nominees, so he is going to win.
Best TV series – Musical or Comedy
“Black-ish”
“Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“Master of None”
“SMILF”
“Will & Grace”
Who Will Win: Will & Grace
Who Could Win: Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Will & Grace
  • Will & Grace returned with a vengeance, and full of political humor that fits well with the HFPA, so even though the Globes has shown a real love for streaming service shows recently in this category, this is likely a year for network television supremacy, even if this feels kind of silly.
Best performance by an Actor in a TV series – Musical or Comedy
Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish”
Aziz Ansari “Master of None”
Kevin Bacon, “I Love Dick”
William H. Macy, “Shameless”
Eric McCormack, “Will and Grace”
Who Will Win: Eric McCormack
Who Could Win: Aziz Ansari
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Kevin Bacon
  • There is something to be said for the HFPA’s love for movie stars, which gives Kevin Bacon an edge, but the Will and Grace train is likely too far gone at this point, so McCormack can now end the show’s Golden Globe curse for individual awards.
Best performance by an Actress in a TV series – Musical or Comedy
Pamela Adlon, “Better Things”
Alison Brie, “Glow”
Issa Rae, “Insecure”
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Frankie Shaw, “SMILF”
Who Will Win: Rachel Brosnahan
Who Could Win: Frankie Shaw
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: They can’t fuck this up no matter who they pick
  • Umm, no matter who is picked here they can’t mess this up. Still, this feels like a showdown between Brosnahan and Shaw as the shiniest and newest actresses in this category. As already mentioned, the Globes really do seem to love streaming services, especially Amazon (even if the Amazon commercials immediately after wins are a bit, umm, suspect), so Brosnahan has the edge.
Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
“Big Little Lies”
“Fargo”
“Feud: Bette and Joan”
“The Sinner”
“Top of the Lake: China Girl”
Who Will Win: Big Little Lies
Who Could Win: Fargo
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: The Sinner
  • Only a crazy person bets against Big Little Lies. Which is why the HFPA will pick The Sinner because ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (I am mostly joking).
Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Robert De Niro, “The Wizard of Lies”
Jude Law, “The Young Pope”
Kyle MacLachlan, “Twin Peaks”
Ewan McGregor, “Fargo”
Geoffrey Rush, “Genius”
Who Will Win: Robert De Niro
Who Could Win: Kyle Maclachlan
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Geoffrey Rush
  • De Niro fits into the movie star box for the Globes, but don’t count out the Globes showing some love to Twin Peaks by giving a trophy to MacLachlan.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Jessica Biel, “The Sinner”
Nicole Kidman, “Big Little Lies”
Jessica Lange, “Feud: Bette and Joan”
Susan Sarandon, “Feud: Bette and Joan”
Reese Witherspoon, “Big Little Lies”
Who Will Win: Nicole Kidman
Who Could Win: Reese Witherspoon
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Jessica Biel
  • Seriously, no betting against Big Little Lies. Kidman has consistently beat Witherspoon, so I see no reason for that to change. Even if Jessica Biel will look awfully shiny and new to the HFPA.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Alfred Molina, “Feud”
Alexander Skarsgard, “Big Little Lies”
David Thewlis, “Fargo”
David Harbour, “Stranger Things”
Christian Slater, “Mr. Robot”
Who Will Win: Alexander Skarsgard
Who Could Win: David Harbour
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Alfred Molina
  • Is that an echo? Don’t bet against Big Little Lies.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Laura Dern, “Big Little Lies”
Ann Dowd, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Chrissy Metz, “This is Us”
Michelle Pfeiffer, “The Wizard of Lies”
Shailene Woodley, “Big Little Lies”
Who Will Win: Laura Dern
Who Could Win: Chrissy Metz
If Golden Globes went full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Michelle Pfeiffer
  • Okay this is the one time you could maybe bet against Big Little Lies. Like I am not going to, but Metz could easily win this really screwy category.
I guess we will see how accurate all of this ends up being. Unfortunately, I won’t be able to do a live blog for the Globes this year, but I will offer up a reaction post to all that happens, so let’s see how weird the most fun award show around can get this year.

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