We are finally here. It’s time for the 2017 Oscars, and so after months of writing words upon words upon words… here are my final predictions.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Dark Horse: Arrival
Should Win: Moonlight
Brief Thoughts:
- The backlash against La La Land has gotten quite severe, as at this point Film Twitter basically considers it the worst thing ever. But Twitter is not the real world, and most people still love this movie. The film was nominated for awards by 12 of the 13 guilds, collected nine wins among them, and is setting up to be the first original musical to win since Gigi in 1958. It losing would be a huge upset. At the same time, I totally understand the desire for this upset to happen, even if the backlash has gotten out of hand. La La Land would continue Hollywood’s trend of voting for films about itself, and that is troubling to say the least. Moonlight winning would just mean more, and while La La Land is a better movie, it is not by all that much, so quality wise the two movies are kind of a wash. The inner angry film student in me is starting to get more defensive of La La Land because at this point the hit job articles are coming pretty consistently, and people are acting as if Moonlight is the greatest thing ever given to cinema while La La Land is trash, neither of which are true. They are both excellent movies deserving of praise, and even if the world would be better overall if Moonlight pulled off the big upset, that is so not happening. Let’s get used to it now and not turn La La Land into the 2004 Crash.
My Own Personal Rankings for This Years Nominees
- La La Land
- Manchester by the Sea
- Moonlight
- (Quality gap between these three, which are almost dead even, and the rest of the group)
- Arrival
- Hidden Figures
- Hell or High Water
- Lion
- Fences
- Hacksaw Ridge
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Predicted Winner: Denzel Washington
Could Win: Casey Affleck
Dark Horse: Ryan Gosling
Should Win: The inner artist in me says Casey Affleck, the human being in me says Denzel Washington
Brief Thoughts:
- This race was over. Casey Affleck was going to win. Then SAG happened, and Washington got a huge win to shift the narrative. Affleck had mostly avoided any real backlash for the sexual assault allegations against him for most of the awards season, but at SAG the combination of those and the fact that Denzel is, you know, Denzel, combined to defeat him. Affleck recovered with a win at BAFTA, but Washington wasn’t nominated there (part of a troubling racial trend at this year’s BAFTAs that made it difficult to take a lot of it seriously). People wondering if Washington’s win at SAG had something to do with Affleck’s past has only brought more attention to this situation, and that has likely not been helpful to Affleck. At some level this is a shame, because Affleck gives truly a transcendent performance in Manchester by the Sea; at the same time, at a human level it is hard to separate the performance from the man. So Washington is likely to ride this momentum to a win. If Affleck wins despite the late shift in the race, that is not surprising at all, so this category is really probably little more than a coin flip. If the Academy decided that it wanted everyone to completely hate them forever, Ryan Gosling could win if La La Land sweeps everything, but that is not happening, either.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone
Could Win: Isabelle Huppert
Dark Horse: Meryl Streep
Should Win: Isabelle Huppert
Brief Thoughts:
- This is such a stacked category that you can make case for any of these fine women winning. Emma Stone has all the momentum, though, since Isabelle Huppert has basically had to sit out every major award show since the Golden Globes. Huppert should win here because her performance is just in a different league from everyone else (male or female) other than Casey Affleck, but the track record for the Academy picking a foreign actress like Huppert is just not good enough for me to believe she can win. Stone was excellent in La La Land and at this point is heading toward a Hollywood coronation. If you want a real dark horse, it is probably Meryl Streep, who could pull off a win simply because people want to see her give a speech, even if she gave at most the fourth best performance in this category.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali
Could Win: Dev Patel
Dark Horse: Jeff Bridges
Should Win: Mahershala Ali
Brief Thoughts:
- This race is closer than it should be, but Mahershala Ali probably is going to hold on against a fast charging Dev Patel. Not only is this a good place to get Moonlight‘s Oscar count up, but Ali is simply too good not to get this win. Still, Patel could pull this off, as he has the full support of the Weinsteins and would still be a diverse winner for a deserving performance. At the same time, if you feel the Academy is heading toward the tone deaf Oscars, Jeff Bridges is still lurking with a role that is much more leading than supporting.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Predicted Winner: Viola Davis
Could Win: LOL
Dark Horse: LOL… fine, Michelle Williams
Should Win: Viola Davis
Brief Thoughts:
- This is silly. Just start the show with Jimmy Kimmel holding Davis’s Oscar so he can just give it to her and she can give an awesome speech.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Predicted Winner: Zootopia
Could Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Dark Horse: The Red Turtle
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Brief Thoughts:
- Until BAFTA, there was nothing to suggest this was a real race, but after Kubo‘s win things have changed. The only time BAFTA and the Oscars have not matched with winners was in 2014, when The Lego Movie won at BAFTA but wasn’t even nominated by the Oscars. Kubo has run a great campaign, and really the best thing for this category would be a non-Disney/Pixar film winning so that it at least appears as though other studios have a chance in the future. But Zootopia has won so much that the BAFTA win is likely just a random blip, and it also really can’t be discounted that a film about inclusivity and tolerance losing to a film that had quite a few gripes about voice acting whitewashing might not be the best look.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Could Win: Lion
Dark Horse: Arrival
Should Win: La La Land
Brief Thoughts:
- Linus Sandgren has most of the momentum heading into the Oscars, and should win. Greig Fraser is lurking, partially due to his great work on Lion but also because he also did great work on Rogue One, which could lead to him getting a win as a reward for such an excellent year. This happened at the guild awards, so it could also happen here. Bradford Young can also not be discounted for his strong work in Arrival, as there is also the possibility that the Academy will want to give a deserving win to only the second African American man to even be nominated for this award.
COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Predicted Winner: Jackie
Could Win: La La Land
Dark Horse: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Should Win: Jackie (I know I make fun of this, but seriously, the dress game in this movie is incredible)
Brief Thoughts:
- The Costume Guild Awards made this a little more complicated when Jackie lost to Hidden Figures (which really should have been nominated as well) in the Period Category, while La La Land won in its category. Jackie has beaten La La Land whenever the two actually go up against each other so I am sticking Jackie, but you know, bet against La La Land at your own risk.
DIRECTING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Predicted Winner: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Could Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Dark Horse: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (never underestimate the Academy’s ability to do something stupid)
Should Win: This may sound like a cop out, but I am completely serious in that it should be a tie between Barry Jenkins and Damien Chazelle
Brief Thoughts:
- Chazelle has this award even more locked up than La La Land has Best Picture. Only Ang Lee (and Ben Affleck, kind of) have ever had the same profile of wins as Chazelle only to lose at the Oscars. It just doesn’t happen. Honestly, this was always probably the best spot to honor La La Land even if the film wasn’t winning in a shit ton of other places. In an ideal world, though, Chazelle should be sharing this award with Barry Jenkins. Jenkins is the lingering presence in this category, and if Moonlight is going to pull of a huge upset in the Best Picture race, Jenkins could be in for a big win here as well.
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
Predicted Winner: 13th
Could Win: O.J.: Made in America
Dark Horse: Life, Animated
Should Win: I Am Not Your Negro
Brief Thoughts:
- Preface one, there is a real chance any of these films could win; but the two heavyweights here are O.J.: Made in America and 13th. O.J. won the PGA and DGA Awards while 13th won the BAFTA. It is hard to find the best predictors for this award, so it is really just a coin flip. I am going with 13th because of the power of Ava DuVernay and Netflix, but if you want to go with the more consistent winner, O.J. is a good bet. If you want a spoiler, Life, Animated is a controversy-free, inspirational movie about how Disney movies help an autistic boy learn how to interact with the world. It is so inoffensive that the Academy might eat it up and make a complete fool of themselves, so if you just don’t trust the Oscars to do smart things this is the pick for you.
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
Predicted Winner: Joe’s Violin
Could Win: Extremis
Dark Horse: The White Helmets
Should Win: N/A because I can never see these
Brief Thoughts:
- Joe’s Violin hits the Holocaust buzzword bingo, but Extremis, about the right to die issue in California, is also a strong contender. Of the three Syrian related films, The White Helmets is the best bet, but it is hard to feel strongly that any one of those will be able to overcome the vote splitting that will happen with these.
FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival
Dark Horse: Hacksaw Ridge
Should Win: Moonlight
Brief Thoughts:
- Tom Cross is heading toward another Oscar win for La La Land, but fellow Eddie Winner Arrival and BAFTA winner Hacksaw Ridge could still pull off the upset.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
Predicted Winner: The Salesman
Could Win: Toni Erdmann
Dark Horse: A Man Called Ove
Should Win: Toni Erdmann
Brief Thoughts:
- The Trump Muslim Ban is likely to propel The Salesman to victory so a statement can be made that director Ashgar Farhadi refused to come to the awards in protest. The Academy will not resist sending this message. Toni Erdmann was primed to win this award before the real world threw a wrench in things, so it can still win, but the chance at such a slam dunk political statement is hard to pass up.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Predicted Winner: Star Trek Beyond
Could Win: Suicide Squad
Dark Horse: A Man Called Ove
Should Win: … Suicide Squad
Brief Thoughts:
- This mess of a category is going to Star Trek Beyond, which is more flashy than A Man Called Ove and less hated than Suicide Squad. I will say this, though, this the perfect year for the Academy to get the makeup and hair team beyond A Man Called Ove an Oscar, so if it wins don’t be totally surprised.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Could Win: Lion
Dark Horse: Jackie
Should Win: La La Land
Brief Thoughts:
- The musical is winning this category. Even if La La Land wasn’t La La Land that was likely to be the case. Lion is a threat here because the Weinsteins will push it heavily, and Jackie is intriguing as Mica Levi is only the fourth woman to ever be nominated for an Oscar in this category and the first in decades. None of these things are likely enough, but if you are looking for a reason to live dangerously, there’s a few for you.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land
Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
“Can’t Stop The Feeling” from Trolls
Music and Lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Karl Johan Schuster
“Cty Of Stars” from La La Land
Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
“The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story
Music and Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting
“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
Predicted Winner: “City of Stars”
Could Win: “How Far I’ll Go”
Dark Horse: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
Should Win: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
Brief Thoughts:
- If “City of Stars” had been the only nomination here from La La Land, this wouldn’t even be a question, because it has won everything, but the Academy also really loved “Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” which to be fair is the far superior song in every way, so that made things somewhat interesting. The two La La Land songs could split the vote, and allow Lin-Manuel Miranda to swoop in and collect his EGOT for Moana. If you think a split will occur go with “How Far I’ll Go,” otherwise this is all “City of Stars.”
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Could Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Dark Horse: Passengers
Should Win: Hail, Caesar!
Brief Thoughts:
- This should really be a coin flip between La La Land and Fantastic Beasts, but this is the kind of award where La La Land‘s likely big night will sway a lot of voters to pull off the win. Fantastic Beasts has beaten La La Land in a head to head at BAFTA, so it is a legitimate alternative.
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
Predicted Winner: Pearl
Could Win: Piper
Dark Horse: Blind Vaysha
Should Win: Blind Vaysha just barely over Pearl
Brief Thoughts:
- Pixar has done far worse in this category than anyone would think, so even though most people are leaning towards Piper, it is likely going to lose. After that it likely comes down to Pearl and Blind Vaysha. I am going out on a limb here and going with the musical film made by previous winner Patrick Osborne in Pearl. Blind Vaysha also feels like a winner, and at some point Pixar is going to win this category again, so why not the year its feature film failed to get a nomination? So really Piper is probably the safest bet, even if it’s not my pick.
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Predicted Winner: Ennemis Intérieurs
Could Win: Timecode
Dark Horse: Sing
Should Win: N/A, I couldn’t actually watch these before this went up
Brief Thoughts:
- This likely comes down to which version of Oscar short the Academy wishes to honor. Ennemis Intérieurs is an issue-based film dealing with immigration and the demonizing of the “other,” while Timecode is the sort of lighter, breezier film that has done well recently. This feels like a year for a more somber winner, so Ennemis Intérieurs is my predicted winner.
SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Predicted Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
Could Win: La La Land
Dark Horse: Arrival
Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Brief Thoughts:
- Historically this category and sound mixing are likely to match, so if you like Hacksaw Ridge or La La Land here you should like them in mixing as well. This feels like an historical anomaly year, however, as La La Land is only the second musical film to even get a nomination here, so the nomination is a win in itself. The cynical part of me knows that the Academy doesn’t understand the difference between these two categories, and will not be able to resist picking the same film for both, but I am choosing to believe they will figure this out. Hacksaw Ridge is the far superior choice here so that is what I am going with.
SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Could Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Dark Horse: Arrival
Should Win: La La Land
Brief Thoughts:
- A lot of my same thoughts from Sound Editing apply here. Musicals have a solid (though not spectacular) track record for winning in this category, and La La Land has already had guild success. So La La Land is the choice here with Hacksaw Ridge being the next most likely option, and one which would allow Kevin O’Connell to finally get an Oscar after 21 tries. Also, the biggest news from this category is that the Academy took the rare step of stripping fellow perennial bridesmaid Greg P. Russell of his nomination after violating Academy rules. This doesn’t really affect anything, but it is a pretty crazy thing to happen the night before the Oscars.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Winner: The Jungle Book
Could Win: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Dark Horse: Kubo and the Two Strings
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Brief Thoughts:
- As much as I would love for the Kubo upset here, this has been The Jungle Book‘s award for quite a while. It has by far the most visual effects, and is gorgeous. It is unlikely this category will surprise this year the way it did last year.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Predicted Winner: Moonlight
Could Win: Arrival
Dark Horse: Lion
Should Win: Moonlight
Brief Thoughts:
- Moonlight is winning this award unless the Academy just loses its mind. It very well could have won the Original Category if it had remained there, and stands out far above the scripts in this category. That said, if the Academy decides that it wants to visibly shut Barry Jenkins out from winning anything, then Adapted WGA winner Arrival (Moonlight won the Original Category) or BAFTA winner Lion could step up to win.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
Predicted Winner: Manchester by the Sea
Could Win: La La Land
Dark Horse: Hell or High Water
Should Win: Manchester by the Sea
Brief Thoughts:
- This is a tight race between La La Land and Manchester by the Sea that really we have only the Golden Globes to blame for, because even as a La La Land defender, the script is the weakest part of this movie, and the nomination is a win in itself considering the last musical to win an Oscar here was Gigi in 1958. Manchester has managed to maintain a slim lead especially after its BAFTA win, and this is the perfect place for the Academy to give Kenneth Lonergan an Oscar, so that should happen here. History is not on Lonergan’s side, as the Best Picture winner has almost always won a Writing Oscar, especially this century, so La La Land is a very strong bet.
That’s it for my picks. I look forward to being wrong about most of them!