Oscarathon 2017 – Oscar Race Forecast: Golden Globes Nominations and Critics’ Choice Awards

In All, Movies by David

I already put up some introductory thoughts about many upcoming Oscar races here, but today’s Golden Globe nominations and yesterday’s Critics’ Choice Awards do change things a bit–if for no other reason than by offering some more clarity on certain races. So I’ll briefly go into what I feel the biggest impact these results have for the races I already covered.

Best Picture

  • The biggest thing to come out of all this is that La La Land has gone from slight favorite to clear favorite. Not only is it leading the way with seven Golden Globe nominations (and considering it is in the musical and comedy category, it has a good chance of winning every single one of those), but more importantly, it won the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Picture. This is a good predictor of Best Picture, as 13 of the last 17 Critics’ Choice Award winners have gone on to win the top prize at the Oscars. The exceptions were Sideways (2004), Brokeback Mountain (2005), The Social Network (2010), and Boyhood (2014), all of which loss due to significant turnarounds, or in the case of 2005, whatever the hell happened when Crash won (increasing confusion among David Cronenberg fans?). The guild awards might change this momentum, but La La Land is likely to stay the front runner for a while.
  • Hacksaw Ridge already had other nominations, but snagging Globe nominations for Best Picture Drama, Best Director, and Best Actor Drama makes it feel like this film is going to end up in the thick of things. It must be said, though, that the Hollywood Foreign Press have always loved Mel Gibson, so this could just be them doing their own thing.
  • The Globes were not good for Jackie, which was left out of the Drama category. This is a bit worrisome, because there is already a sketchy history of the award season leaving out female-fronted dramas in favor of male-fronted ones (just look what happened to Carol last year), so while this film has a good chance of getting the Oscar nom (I chalk the Globes snub up to it being pushed out of a tight category), things look a lot dicier than before.
  • It could be argued this gender-based snubbing happened to Hidden Figures as well, but I was less surprised by that one. I imagine we’ll hear more from Hidden Figures when the SAG awards are announced, so until then I will reserve judgment.

Best Actress

  • I already thought that Natalie Portman was the slight favorite here, but her Critics’ Choice Award win certainly helped. There was a lot of surprise from many over this win, which suggests that most still think Emma Stone is the favorite or at worst the top competition to Portman.
  • All of the actresses that I covered in my first piece except for Rebecca Hall managed to snag Golden Globe nominations (the other two spots going to up and coming young actresses in Lily Collins and Hailee Steinfeld that the Hollywood Foreign Press clearly wanted to mingle with), so both categories are stacked. Unlike most years, I don’t think the Drama winner is going to have a clear advantage over the Comedy/Musical winner.

Best Actor

  • Casey Affleck is still the major favorite, but the Globes nominations have helped suggest the current favorites: Affleck, Denzel Washington, Andrew Garfield, Ryan Gosling, and Joel Edgerton.
  • All five listed above also got Critics’ Choice nominations, so a small consensus is forming. The first three seem like pretty sure things at this point, while Gosling may soon be as well if La La Land really takes off, but Edgerton is still pretty vulnerable because of how little buzz Loving is receiving.

Best Director

  • Damien Chazelle managed to pull a big win off at the Critics’ Choice Awards, which pulls him even with Barry Jenkins. I still think it is more likely that this represents how there will be a lack of consensus between these two, more so than this signifying a rallying around Chazelle. It can’t be discounted that this could be the beginning of La La Land‘s grand sweep through awards season.
  • I mostly find Tom Ford’s Golden Globe nomination to be just the Globes being the Globes, so unless other nominations are to come, there is nothing to see here–other than maybe attempted bribery works.

Best Supporting Actress

  • The supporting categories are one of the few that the Globes really help with, because they only nominate five people. So with that said, combined with the Critics’ Choice nominees there are four women that seem to be clear favorites for Oscar nominations right now: Naomi Harris, Michelle Williams, Viola Davis, and Lion‘s Nicole Kidman.
  • Davis is the favorite after her Critics’ Choice Awards win, and also because she is Viola Davis.
  • The last spot feels like it will be a race between Hidden Figures stars Octavia Spencer and Janelle Monae and 20th Century Women‘s Greta Gerwig.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Not as much clarity here as with Best Supporting Actress, except that I would add Lion‘s Dev Patel as being a lock along with Mahershala Ali and Jeff Bridges.
  • Also, it feels like Nocturnal Animals is going to get an actor in a spot, but it is unclear if that will be Michael Shannon or Aaron-Taylor Johnson.
  • Ali won the Critic’s Choice Award, so he is definitely still the favorite.

Best Original Screenplay

  • While Kenneth Lonergan is still the favorite, his tie with Damien Chazelle at the Critics’ Choice Awards does hint at the fact that he is vulnerable to La La Land simply sweeping through everything it is nominated for.
  • The Lobster took a blow by not scoring a Golden Globes nomination, but not much of one, because the Globes only have one screenplay category. With Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and La La Land as clear locks, The Lobster is going to have its work cut out for it competing for one of the final two spots, but it still looks to be the favored choice.
  • Hell or High Water also appears to have the inside track toward a nomination after it landed screenplay noms at both the Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Some clarity finally came from these past two days. Nocturnal Animals landed a Critics’ Choice Award nomination and a Golden Globe nomination in the aforementioned single Screenplay category, so it feels like this will be the one place the Academy looks to recognize Ford.
  • Arrival won the Critics’ Choice Award, so it also feels like it is heading towards a nomination, especially because this may be the best category for it to win other than possibly Visual Effects.

Best Song

  • The Golden Globes have helped solidify which songs Moana and La La Land should back in “How Far I’ll Go” and “City of Stars” respectively. The latter won best song at the Critic’s Choice Awards, another good sign for La La Land.
  • Justin Timberlake’s “Can’t Stop This Feeling” also feels like a lock at this point for a nom. The rest is a jumble with both Sing and Gold adding contenders to the mix.

Best Foreign Film

  • The Hollywood Foreign Press is, not surprisingly, a bit strange with its choices sometimes, and it doesn’t face the same restrictions as the Oscars for voting purposes, so take these nominations with a grain of salt. That said, it looks very likely the Globes will hit at least four of the Oscar nominees with Toni Erdman, The Salesman, Neruda, and Elle.
  • Elle also won the Critics’ Choice Award, so it has to be taken seriously as a real threat to win if it gets nominated–which is a big if, because I am not positive I trust the Foreign Film Oscar voters to vote for this movie.

Best Animated Film

  • The biggest news is that Finding Dory didn’t get nominated, which was quite a surprise. I am not convinced I believe Academy voters will follow suit, because all of their kids will have seen Finding Dory, but this could be a sign of things to come as voters realize how bad it will look if virtually every film they put in the category is Disney affiliated.
  • Everything I said about Trolls in my early look applies equally to Sing, which could parlay star power and singing into a nomination.
  • The dream is likely dead for Your Name (it was never much of one, but it at least existed briefly; maybe Funimation just needs to accept that nobody takes them seriously as a distributor), but not for GKids. My Life as a Zucchini now looks to be the film they should support. With the exclusion of The Red Turtle, there is now looking to be two spots up for grabs, which opens things up.
  • Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Stringsand Moana are locks at this point, with Zootopia still being the favorite after its Critics’ Choice Award win.

That’s it for this update on the 2017 Oscars race. Stay tuned for more ongoing coverage.