Oscarathon 2016 continues with the fourth in a five-part series predicting this year’s Academy Award winners and losers. Each of these posts will take on one or more awards, and we’ll keep coming back to each in the run up to the official ceremony in our continuing coverage of the 2016 Oscar race. Enjoy!
In our final week of Oscar coverage, we finally move on to the Technical Awards. The distinction I’ve made in this post series between “Creative” and “Technical” categories may be one without a difference, as there are technical and creative aspects to all of these roles, but it least provides an easy division between posts. Anyway, now for the awards.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Analysis:
After years of being snubbed, everyone seems to have realized that Emmanuel Lubezki is the best, and this category has basically become his to lose until he decides to abdicate the throne. Each of the five nominees bring a very distinctive style to their movies, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t other fine choices. Bridge of Spies used its cinematography to help showcase its restraint in telling a big story while still giving everyone the Spielberg flourishes. The Martian‘s cinematography helped add character to what could have been a pretty standard, lazily shot movie. Both The Assassin and Son of Saul demonstrated how foreign films can bring a different visual feel to cinema. Creed and Star Wars each found new ways to shoot exciting action in long-running franchises. Brooklyn kept things simple but still beautiful. Spotlight committed to its understated feel, even with the camera. There were a lot of beautifully shot films this year, but really it is hard to really argue with the top five, as all of them bring something different and excellent to the table.
The 70 MM Marvel
Look at that camera!
Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
- There is a lot to be made of Richardson’s use of 70mm to shoot The Hateful Eight, but there is more to this nomination than just a gimmick. Each shot of The Hateful Eight is exquisitely composed, and does a great job of expression action and emotion. The problem is that this year’s category is simply stacked, and even if the giant shadow of Lubezki wasn’t hanging over everything, Richardson would have a hard time winning, especially considering his lack of a guild nomination. So this is definitely in the happy to be nominated category, especially considering it likely took the spot most people expected Bridge of Spies would occupy.
Making a Period Piece Sizzle
Keeping it classy.
Ed Lachman, Carol
- Period love stories aren’t necessarily the most exciting things to shoot, but man, Lachman makes Carol sizzle. There is a uniqueness to his shooting in this film that helps make it a visual feast. He is all about style. Unfortunately, this kind of feat is just hard to compare to the bigger, showier jobs in Mad Max, Sicario, and The Revenant. What Carol does have going for it is that it has been a rather consensus nomination for this category in other awards shows, including the ASC Guild Awards, but it has never been able to do more than that, so it seems almost impossible that it could break through at the Oscars.
Showing Us The Road to Valhalla
Looking chrome, my man.
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
- Like all things in Mad Max, the cinematography shines, especially when combined with the film’s sublime editing. The action is fluid, and the thrilling camerawork perfectly captures the chase that is the heart of the movie. This could be a big winner in any other year, but this is not a normal year for cinematography. Like Carol, Mad Max also has found broad consensus support in the nomination process, but Fury Road‘s win at the Satellite Awards makes for an extra feather in its cap. It is doubtful this will lead to an Oscar win, but if a crazy upset happens here during Sunday’s telecast, it could be a sign of things to come for Mad Max for the later, bigger awards.
The Eternal Bridesmaid
I’ll admit, making Deakins be second fiddle in his own picture is cruel, but really, really appropriate.
Roger Deakins, Sicario
- Poor Roger Deakins. This is his 13th nomination, and likely will once again go home without the trophy. Which is a shame, because the cinematography in this film is mesmerizing. Deakins brings his absolute A-game, and helps create Sicario‘s terrifying atmosphere. One of the greatest living cinematographers, Deakins has found wide spread support with nominations this season, but there just feels like almost no way he could pull off the upset, especially because of the lack of relative support Sicario received from the Academy. Still, at some point you figure that Deakins has to break through, and this is one of his more deserving entries, so he can’t be counted out entirely.
The King
Long live the king!
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
- Befor Gravity, Lubezki was just like Deakins, never a bride. Then he finally broke through, and now one has to wonder if he is ever going to lose again. Like the movie itself, Lubezki’s work in The Revenant is overrated, but man, is it pretty. It would have been nice if it was a more motivated pretty, but Lubezki gets the job done. The shoot was quite difficult, and Lubezki makes perfect use of his “handicap” of only using natural light. Lubezki has won most of the major awards, including the ASC Award top prize, and there seems to be very little that could stop him from being the first person to win three straight Oscars.
Current Predicted Winner: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
Current Rankings:
- Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
- Roger Deakins, Sicario
- John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
- Ed Lachman, Carol
- Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
Who Should Win: Roger Deakins, Sicario
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
FILM EDITING
Analysis
Oh, look, it’s the category that is far more predictive of Best Picture than anyone realizes! Although that has started to change over the years, getting an Editing nomination is still usually a precursor to being an Oscar frontrunner–and what do you know, the frontrunners in this Oscar season are all in this category, give or take a Star Wars. As always, there were some notable omissions. Bridge of Spies continued to miss out in key spots that probably kept it from being a true Best Picture contender. Sicario‘s unnerving editing and The Martian‘s unique tone and rhythm are both worthy of recognition. The Hateful Eight‘s editing helps make a stage play feel like so much more, and emphasizes the emotional tenor of each new act of violence. Creed managed to hit both boxing and non-boxing strengths. Room‘s editing emphasized the story’s claustrophobia and emotional delicacy. Straight Outta Compton used editing to make its story that much more affecting. But all those aside, this year’s five nominees are fine choices, and more importantly showcase many different styles of editing.
Thanks For Keeping Me in The Best Picture Race
Spotlight
- The editing in this film is so subtle, yet so effective. It’s the kind of thing that doesn’t always get properly appreciated, so I’m glad to see it nominated. Still hard to see it doing anything but languishing in fifth. This nomination helped solidify Spotlight as a big player, but it was never going to win the award.
Everyone Loves Star Wars
Could Star Wars love translate to multiple wins?
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- Everyone loves Star Wars, and you have to give the highest grossing domestic film of all time something, but that will probably be in Visual Effects. Despite that, this was a lovely nomination for a great editing job that helps bring the story’s whimsy, adventure, and fantasy to life. The film’s editing really helps everything flow in the exact way The Force Awakens needed to really soar. In a non-Mad Max year, Star Wars might be able to use all this to pull off a win, but this is one buzz war even Star Wars has yet to be able to win. Still, it is Star Wars so wonky things can happen.
Lazy Voters = Sweep
The Revenant
- The Revenant may have the best edited sequence of any film this year with its first twenty or so minutes, but alas, the rest of the movie falls short of the high standard placed in the beginning, as the editing allowed the film’s pace to slacken to glacial velocity. The Revenant has lost to Mad Max at every major point this season in this category, and really it is more likely to play spoiler by drawing enough votes away from Mad Max to let The Big Short win. But being the Oscar frontrunner means that sometimes you just sweep awards you don’t deserve because voters get check happy. Could this happen here? Unlikely, but it is possible.
This Could Be The Sign of Things to Come
The Big Short
- The Big Short has two things going for it. One, it didn’t lose to Mad Max at the Eddies because they were in different categories, so this film actually picked up the win. Two, if The Big Short is to win Best Picture (which is totally still in play), then it likely needs to pick up a third win somewhere to go with the Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay Oscars (the last film to win with just two Oscars was The Greatest Show On Earth in 1952). The other categories seem like long shots, so this is where it would pick up that key third Oscar. This is a very well edited movie, and it does so in the exact opposite way as Spotlight, flashy and loud. If this win happens, everything we think we know about the Best Picture race changes.
Witness The Frontrunner
It will all be worth it…
Mad Max: Fury Road
- There really is no reason why this shouldn’t be the winner. It has won basically ever major award it could, including the Eddie, and there is a good chance this is the biggest award Mad Max will win. The only thing that can stop it from winning is laziness as voters just vote for The Big Short or The Revenant when they pick either for Best Picture. Hopefully this won’t happen, because the editing in this film is astounding, supporting the cinematography to craft an awesome, exciting vision. The action is cut perfectly, and every image has purpose. This is a true feat of editing wizardry.
Current Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Current Rankings:
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Big Short
- The Revenant
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- Spotlight
Who Should Win: This one is really close, but Mad Max slightly over Star Wars and The Big Short
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Sicario
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Analysis
A lot of people really liked this year’s scores, but I found myself mostly underwhelmed, so this is the one category where there aren’t so much snubs as those that missed out. You probably could have replaced these five with five other scores, and you wouldn’t feel that different either way, other than maybe Bridge of Spies. That doesn’t mean they aren’t good, just nothing amazing. There was a lot of stuff just underneath that in terms of quality, though. Spotlight‘s score helped bring emotion to an understated film, Inside Out‘s score brought all the feels, and Brooklyn‘s music kept the tone consistent even as its protagonist traveled. Mad Max‘s score helped ratchet the tension up to a 20, while Crimson Peak used it to bring about a wistful dread. The Danish Girl used a score true to its movie, and Trumbo‘s score help bring gravitas to a film that at times struggled to find it. (Don’t forget one of the best scores of the year, the chilling It Follows soundtrack by Disasterpiece. – Ed)
Thanks For Coming
Carol
Sicario
- Both of these scores are quite good, and really help nail the emotional core of their movies. Carol‘s adds a melancholy tone to a love story that fits perfectly with the story on screen. Sicario, meanwhile, uses its score to make the audience even more uncomfortable while events crush their soul, enveloping you to create a truly unique and disconcerting experience. Both scores have picked up other nominations this season, but not enough to overcome their lack of sexiness compared to the other three nominees. Carol, though, does possibly benefit from winning the Satellite Award, but probably not enough to matter.
Look Out For This One
Bridge of Spies
- Bridge of Spies is likely to be the Best Picture nominee this year that ends up with no awards, because it just doesn’t stand out enough in its categories, but if there is a place for it to break through, it is here, because its score is beautiful and awesome. This would be a shocker, though, as there really isn’t anything to point to as to why this film could win, other than it being the only Best Picture nominee in this category. Thomas Newman has been nominated 13 times for Oscars without wins, and it is likely that will continue this year, but stranger things have happened.
The Legend Returns
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- John Williams returns for his 50th(!) overall nomination, and well, what can I say. Wow. His score in The Force Awakens is more original than most people probably realize, but still a bit too full of his old work. Williams hasn’t won since 1993, so it is possible people might feel like it is time to reward him again, but this has been anything but a consensus nomination in the process, as he failed to pick up nominations at the Golden Globes and several others. This is far less than a sure thing, but never count Star Wars out in any category.
It’s Time
The Hateful Eight
- This would be a much closer race if this score wasn’t by Ennio Morricone, who makes an unlikely return for a chance at an Oscar. This is his sixth nomination, and he was actually bestowed an Honorary Oscar in 2007, which generally is given to older greats who probably won’t get an Oscar otherwise, but with the help of Tarantino, Morricone is back. The Hateful Eight score is a fun piece of work that helps tie the film together, although it’s not as strong as some of Morricone’s past work. That said, Morricone has been slowly picking up awards throughout the season. He won at BAFTA and the Golden Globes, and this finally appears to be his year. But ultimately I do wonder if the fact that this score in particular is good, but not great could cost him. Probably not, but there is some doubt.
Current Predicted Winner: The Hateful Eight
Current Rankings:
- The Hateful Eight
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- Bridge of Spies
- Carol
- Sicario
Who Should Win: Bridge of Spies
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Staight Outta Compton
- Oh goodie, the sound categories, where no one knows anything because only sound people actually really know what to evaluate in looking at these awards. A lot of times these categories end up just being the biggest and loudest thing possible–the old Oscar rule that “best = most” definitely applies.
SOUND EDITING
Analysis
- I could try and try and get into the intricacies of sound design in film, but we’ll all end up poorer for that, so instead let’s just move on to what films missed out on nominations. Bridge of Spies was bumped by Sicario. Creed and Southpaw were knocked out. Inside Out would have been a bold choice. Jurassic World couldn’t make the cut. Crimson Peak was overlooked, as was The Hateful Eight. Let’s just move on now before this goes any further.
Nope
Sicario
Maybe you’ll sneak up on all of us.
The Martian
- Sicario isn’t flashy enough for this award, which is sad, because the sound design in it is spectacular. Meanwhile, The Martian is overshadowed by other, bigger, louder movies. Neither really has much a chance.
Never Count Star Wars Out
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- Star Wars feels like a much better bet for Visual Effects, but it could pull this award out, as there was no bigger film this year. But even it seems overshadowed by the the next two films on this list.
Duel of Death
All the sound you need is that guitar.
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
- The sound in both of these is stellar for different reasons. The Revenant uses silence to harness rage, while Mad Max uses it to allow the audience to catch their breath. Either could win, and it comes down to Max‘s advantage in the tech awards versus The Revenant‘s advantage in the high end awards (plus a BAFTA award for sound). This could go either way.
Current Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Current Rankings:
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- Sicario
- The Martian
Who Should Win: Sicario
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Inside Out
SOUND MIXING
Analysis
- This category has gone more towards big war movies, which is probably why smaller war movie Sicario was knocked off so that Bridge of Spies could take its place. I will continue to not get into the intricacies of sound, so let’s just say that other rejects include Inside Out, Spectre, Jurassic World, Straight Outta Compton, The Hateful Eight, Spotlight, and Creed. This is always one of the weirder categories, and we’ll see if that trend continues.
Still Nope
The Martian
Won’t someone give this film an Oscar… No? Okay then.
Bridge of Spies
- Bridge of Spies takes the place of Sicario in futility in this category. There just isn’t enough buzz there for either, so they will fall short.
Star Wars! Star Wars! Star Wars!
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- I won’t repeat myself, but the same logic applies here as it does in Sound Editing. That said, I like Star Wars‘ chances less in this category, because there are even more narratives in favor of the next two films here than in the other Sound category.
Duel of Death Part 2
Mad Max: Fury Road
Ease up, you’re almost there.
The Revenant
- This category has a bit more clarity, as the CAS Sound Mixing Awards actually picked The Revenant to give us some data to go off of. Combine this with the BAFTA Award for Sound, and The Revenant looks like the slight favorite, especially if it ends up running away with the award show. Still, Mad Max is a hard one to beat in these categories, so it remains anyone’s guess at this point.
Current Predicted Winner: The Revenant
Current Rankings:
- The Revenant
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- Bridge of Spies
- The Martian
Who Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Who Should Have Been Nominated:
VISUAL EFFECTS
Analysis
- This is the mainstream category where the Oscars find ways to include the films people actually watch. Of course, this year the Academy happened to have three movies that got nominated for Best Picture in as well, so that allowed it to be both a popular and critically acclaimed category for once. This meant a lot films that would normally get recognized fell short, such as Jurassic World, Tomorrowland, and Age of Ultron. Then there is a film like The Walk, which did amazing things in a less flashy way than most VFX movies. Action films like Furious 7 and Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation also fell short. Bridge of Spies once again worked some magic but missed out on a nom. I could go on and on about films like Ant-Man, but this year this category has a bit more heft to it, and should provide great suspense on Sunday.
Welcome to The Oscars, You Will Not Be Winning
I know it’s weird, but just enjoy the show. Winning isn’t everything.
Ex Machina
- This was a nice big win for Ex Machina, as it came to play against films with much deeper pockets. This film has gotten recognition from numerous groups, including BAFTA, but it’s way over its head. No shot of winning whatsover, but nice nomination nonetheless.
Maybe in a Different Year
The Martian
- In general, The Martian picked the wrong year. As a critically acclaimed, commercial success, it usually would have had some sort of corner in the Oscar race, but in 2016 it had two mainstream competitors to go up against in The Revenent and Mad Max, leaving The Martian left behind. That’s what it feels like here, too. The VFX work is great in this movie, but it just gets overshadowed by the three films ahead of it. Sometimes them’s the breaks. Suffice to say I don’t like this film’s chances.
Because it’s The Revenant and, You Know, The Bear
The Revenant
- I really feel like I am just repeating myself at this point, but The Revenant could win simply because it is the frontrunner for Best Picture, and of course everyone loves talking about the bear. The film actually won two Visual Effects Society Awards for Supporting and Animated Visual Effects, so it also has some hardware. Voters may just be so impressed with the bear that they vote for this film just for that scene because of how memorable it is.
Co-Favorites
Mad Max: Fury Road
I mean, come on, everyone…
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- At this point it is neck and neck between these two. Mad Max: Fury Road is the popular pick, because it is the popular pick in virtually all the visual categories it is nominated for. Despite looking gorgeous and amazing, this film has never really picked up the momentum one would expect in terms of wins throughout the season, but there is a very strong possibility that once voters start picking Mad Max for one of the visual awards, they might pick the film for all of them. Hurting the film’s chances is that its practical effects can be hard to tell from its VFX work. Meanwhile, Star Wars is rising after wins at the Visual Effects Society Awards and BAFTA. Plus, you know, it’s Star Wars, and it is hard to think that the Academy would not figure out a way to give Star Wars something (of course, the Academy makes tons of terrible decisions, so these things happen). The buzz is high for both films, so this may just come down to which film can produce the most love.
Current Predicted Winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Current Rankings:
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
- The Martian
- Ex Machina
Who Should Win: You really can’t go wrong with either Mad Max or Star Wars, but Star Wars’ effects are better.
Who Should Have Been Nominated:
That’s it for now! Keep checking in for more updates and the final part of these initial predictions as Sunday’s Oscarcast rapidly approaches.